argument45 [OB小组] 第13次作业 global warm and deers population

phillipsareaUID: 2318537

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
字数：342          用时：00:30:05          日期：2007-7-25 下午 09:54:26

In this argument, the author concludes that it's because the recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, which results in the decrease in deer populations. At first glance, the author's reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examing the author's reasoning, we may find it contains several facets that are questionable.

First of all, the author suggests that the global warming trends have caused the result that the deer population is decreasing. However, there's no evidence or research to show that the climate in Canada's arctic region, where the arctic deer are used to living, has turned warm with the global warm trends. Thus, we don't know whether the climate in the deer's habitat has changed yet and we cannot conclude that the warm climate is the cause of deer's death.

Secondly, the author asserts the decrease in deer population on the basis of a report from local hunters, who think the deer populations are declining. However, this conclusion may be objective since perhaps the hunters are suffering a hard time hunting deer, perhaps they don't successfully hunt lots of deer but the fact is that there're still lots of deer alive. Thus, the reports from the hunters may be suspect.

On the other hand, there may be several things to cause the decrease in deer populations. Besides weather, it may be a sudden decrease in their food source, excessive hunt for deer and so forth. The author asserts that it's because the warm weather that makes the deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea, however, every species has the ability to make some adjustments to adapt to a new environment. It's arbitrary to conclude that a small change in climate will cause the decrease in deer populations.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. Regardless of who the author is, he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore some aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities.

ldongxpUID: 2311083

论证没有展开啊，看了ets的范文，那时展的相当的开，写得好长好长，把可能性分析的合理而且周到