[REBORN FROM THE ASHES][comment][12.21]

霁月难逢UID：2718354

关于REBORN FROM THE ASHES组COMMENTS活动的说明&汇总
https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1042733-1-2.html


----------------------------

A special report on the world economy

The long climb

Oct 1st 2009 From The Economist print edition

The world economy is recovering from financial disaster. But it will not return to normal as we know it, says Simon Cox (interviewed here)

NEWPORT BEACH, California, is not a bad place to contemplate the future of the world economy. Its information office promises nine miles of pristine sand, fine dining for devoted epicureans and an atmosphere of laid-back sophistication. Yet students of economic turmoil will find their subject matter conveniently close to hand. California’s unemployment rate has doubled to 12.2% since the start of 2008. Saddled with the worst credit rating in the country, the “Golden State” is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month. It will pay its workers a day late at the end of the fiscal year so that the expense will show up in next year’s budget. Financial shenanigans are not the sole province of the banking industry.

Newport Beach is also the home of Pimco, the biggest bond manager in the world, which handles $840 billion on behalf of pension funds, universities and other clients. In May the company held its annual “Secular Forum”, in which it tries to peer five years into the economic future. After two days of rumination, Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up. But the next five years will not resemble the five preceding the crisis. Not every change wrought by the financial breakdown will be reversed. The world economy is fitfully getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.
Click here to find out more!

That phrase has caught on, even if people disagree about what it means. In the new normal, as defined by Pimco’s CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, growth will be subdued and unemployment will remain high. “The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,” and the securitisation markets, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt, will presumably be a shadow of a shadow. Finance will be costlier and investment weak, so the stock of physical capital, on which prosperity depends, will erode.

The crisis invited a forceful government entry into several of capitalism’s inner sanctums, such as banking, American carmaking and the commercial-paper market. Mr El-Erian worries that the state may overstay its welcome. In addition, national exchequers may start to feel some measure of the fiscal strain now hobbling California. America’s Treasury, in particular, must demonstrate that it is still a “responsible shepherd of other countries’ savings”.

The notion of a “new normal” is convincing, even if you do not agree with every particular. But some forecasters now harbour higher expectations. They think the economy will bounce back to its old self, almost as if nothing had happened. They draw inspiration from the work of the late Milton Friedman, who showed that in America deep recessions are generally followed by strong recoveries. He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked, the more sharply it snaps back.

Friedman’s piece of string represents the demand side of the economy: the sum of spending by households, firms, foreigners and the government. The rigid board symbolises the supply side. When spending is strong enough, the economy’s resources are fully employed, allowing it to realise its full potential. As the workforce grows, capital accumulates and technology advances, this limit expands over time.
String theory

In a recession demand falls short of supply, leaving a sorry trail of unemployed workers, shuttered factories and unexploited innovations. But when the recovery arrives, Friedman suggested, it is all the more forceful because these resources have been lying idle, waiting to be brought back into production. The economy can grow faster than normal for a period until it reaches the point where it would have been without the crisis, when it reaches its full potential again (see chart 1, scenario 1).

Friedman’s story is heartening, but it can come unstuck in two ways. If the shortfall in demand persists it can do lasting damage to supply, reducing the level of potential output (scenario 2) or even its rate of growth (scenario 3). If so, the economy will never recoup its losses, even after spending picks up again.

Why should a swing in spending do such lasting harm? In a recession firms shed labour and mothball capital. If workers are left on the shelf too long, their skills will atrophy and their ties to the world of work will weaken. When spending revives, the recovery will leave them behind. Output per worker may get back to normal, but the rate of employment will not.

Something similar can happen to the economy’s assembly lines, computer terminals and office blocks. If demand remains weak, firms will stop adding to this stock of capital and may scrap some of it. Capital will shrink to fit a lower level of activity. Moreover, if the financial system remains in disrepair, savings will flow haltingly to companies and the cost of capital will rise. Firms will therefore use less of it per unit of output.

The result is a lower ceiling on production. In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, its researchers count the cost of 88 banking crises over the past four decades. They find that, on average, seven years after a bust an economy’s level of output was almost 10% below where it would have been without the crisis.

This is an alarming gap. If replicated in the years to come, it would blight the lives of the unemployed, diminish the fortunes of those in work and make the public debt harder to sustain. But even worse scenarios are possible. A financial breakdown could do lasting damage to the growth in potential output as well as to its level. Even when the economy begins to expand, it may not regain the same pace as before.

Financial crises can pose such a threat to national incomes because of the way they erode national wealth. From the start of 2008 to the spring of this year the crisis knocked $30 trillion off the value of global shares and $11 trillion off the value of homes, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank. At their worst, these losses amounted to about 75% of world GDP. But despite their enormous scale, it is not immediately obvious why these losses should cause a lasting decline in economic activity. Natural disasters also wipe out wealth by destroying buildings, possessions and infrastructure, but the economy rarely slows in their aftermath. On the contrary, output often picks up during a period of reconstruction. Why should a financial disaster be any different?

The answer lies on the other side of the balance-sheet. Before the crisis the overpriced assets held by banks and households were accompanied by vast debts. After the crisis their assets were shattered but their liabilities remained standing. As Irving Fisher, a scholar of the Depression, pointed out, “overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”

Japan found this out to its cost in the 1990s after the bursting of a spectacular bubble in property and stock prices. For a “lost decade” from 1992 the economy stagnated, never recovering the growth rates posted in the 1980s. Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo calls Japan’s ordeal a “balance-sheet recession”.

The typical post-war recession begins when the flow of spending in the economy puts a strain on its resources, forcing prices upwards. Central banks raise interest rates to slow spending to a more sustainable pace. Once inflation has subsided, the authorities are free to turn the taps back on.

But in a “balance-sheet recession”, what must be corrected is not a flow but a stock. After the bubble burst, Japan’s companies were left with liabilities that far exceeded their assets. Rather than file for bankruptcy, they set about paying down their stock of debt to a manageable level. This was a protracted slog which, by Mr Koo’s reckoning, did not finish until 2005. In the meantime Japan’s economy stagnated. By 2002 its output was almost 23% below its pre-crisis trajectory.

Since Pimco’s forum concluded in May, the world economy has palpably improved. In many ways the new normal is beginning to look a lot like the old, vindicating Friedman’s plucking model. China is outpacing expectations. Goldman Sachs is making hay. The premium banks must pay to borrow overnight from each other is now below 0.25%, the level Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once described as “normal”. Companies in Europe and America are selling bonds at a furious pace. A few months ago financial newspapers were debating the future of capitalism. Now they are merely discussing the future of capital requirements. Shock has given way to relief.
The persistence of debt

But the relief is likely to be short-lived. Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.

This special report will argue that although a “new normal” for the world economy is now in sight, it will be different from the old normal in a number of ways. Demand in rich countries will remain weak and emerging economies will not be able to compensate. The report will explain why many governments will have to keep their stimulus packages going for longer than expected, or face entrenched unemployment that will permanently lower their economic potential. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. The banks, the report will show, will remain cautious about lending again, which will slow up the recovery but also make companies more careful about their investment; and the securitisation markets that became so fashionable during the boom will recede, though not disappear altogether.

A persistent shortfall in demand will weigh on supply. By the time this crisis is over, as many as 25m people may have lost their jobs in the 30 rich countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The danger is that several million may never regain them. The mobilisation of capital will be fitful as the financial system copes with past mistakes and impending regulation. The travails of finance, in turn, may prevent the recovering economy from backing and exploiting innovations.

Like Japan’s bubble years, the years that led to the global financial crisis have left a heavy legacy of debt on the balance-sheets of banks and households, especially in Britain and America. It is this legacy that allows past losses to depress future gains. Fisher, again, put it best: “I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.” There is no better example of that than American consumers.

emteddybearUID：2699606

貌似和19号的一样的

tequilawineUID：2702008

楼主出重复了

都说了不是又八UID：2728357

谁说的，没重复呀= =

adammaksimUID：2675466

laid-back  having a relaxed style or character Saddled(vt. 使负担 n. 马鞍) with credit rating= A credit rating estimates the credit worthiness of an individual, corporation, or even a country. It is an evaluation made by credit bureaus of a borrower’s overall credit history.A credit rating is also known as an evaluation of a potential borrower's ability to repay debt, prepared by a credit bureau at the request of the lender shenanigans：恶作剧 好像来自一部动画片 After two days of rumination, Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up.   从这句话里读出一些讽刺的意味~ fitfully   adv.间断的，时断时续的 That phrase has caught on（流行） “The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,”（瘦骨如柴） and the securitisation markets, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt, will presumably be a shadow of a shadow. （瘦骨如柴的加强版~~） shepherd  n.羊倌 harbor  vt.to hold especially persistently in the mind  熟词辟意~~ bounce back 反弹 mothball：封存用的卫生球 引申为封存 balance-sheet In financial accounting, a balance sheet or statement of financial position is a summary of the financial balances of a sole proprietorship, a business partnership or a company. capital requirements：The capital requirement is a bank regulation, which sets a framework on how banks and depository institutions must handle their capital. make hay : 抓紧时机  来自一句谚语 to make hay while the sun shines so many new words and terms.... comments: As it is said in this report “overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”,overinvestment and over speculation may be the fundamental reasons for the economic crisis. As to me, this disaster is inevitable because it is part of a American Dream. Since it was express by James Truslow Adams in 1931, American Dream has deeply rooted in American's minds and become the best reason to migrate to America. This idea makes citizens of every rank belivev they can achieve a "better, richer and happier life." And at most of the time the soaring economy reinforce people's confidence about their future. Thus unlike the cautious Chinese who save their money in banks in case of emergency, Americans tend to enjoy their future happiness immediately with borrowed money. However when economy growth cannot be stimulated by domestic demand anymore, it's time for Americans to pay for their dreams with their own money.

豆腐店的86UID：2512956

明显不重复~~ 只不过话题类似，载体不同了呀`~
-------------------------------------------------

A special report on the world economy
The long climb
Oct 1st 2009 From The Economist print edition
生词
读多遍才懂的句子
好句子，好表达法
================================================================

The world economy is recovering from financial disaster. But it will not return to normal as we know it, says Simon Cox (interviewed here)

NEWPORT BEACH, California, is not a bad place to contemplate the future of the world economy. Its information office promises nine miles of pristine sand, fine dining for devoted epicureans and an atmosphere of laid-back sophistication. Yet students of economic turmoil will find their subject matter conveniently close to hand. California’s unemployment rate has doubled to 12.2% since the start of 2008. Saddled with the worst credit rating in the country, the “Golden State” is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month. It will pay its workers a day late at the end of the fiscal year so that the expense will show up in next year’s budget. Financial shenanigans are not the sole province of the banking industry.

Newport Beach is also the home of Pimco, the biggest bond manager in the world, which handles $840 billion on behalf of pension funds, universities and other clients. In May the company held its annual “Secular Forum”, in which it tries to peer five years into the economic future. After two days of rumination, Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up. But the next five years will not resemble the five preceding the crisis. Not every change wrought by the financial breakdown will be reversed. The world economy is fitfully getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.
Click here to find out more!

That phrase has caught on, even if people disagree about what it means. In the new normal, as defined by Pimco’s CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, growth will be subdued and unemployment will remain high. “The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,” and the securitisation markets, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt, will presumably be a shadow of a shadow. Finance will be costlier and investment weak, so the stock of physical capital, on which prosperity depends, will erode.

The crisis invited a forceful government entry into several of capitalism’s inner sanctums, such as banking, American carmaking and the commercial-paper market. Mr El-Erian worries that the state may overstay its welcome. In addition, national exchequers may start to feel some measure of the fiscal strain now hobbling California. America’s Treasury, in particular, must demonstrate that it is still a “responsible shepherd of other countries’ savings”.

The notion of a “new normal” is convincing, even if you do not agree with every particular. But some forecasters now harbour higher expectations. They think the economy will bounce back to its old self, almost as if nothing had happened. They draw inspiration from the work of the late Milton Friedman, who showed that in America deep recessions are generally followed by strong recoveries. He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked, the more sharply it snaps back.

Friedman’s piece of string represents the demand side of the economy: the sum of spending by households, firms, foreigners and the government. The rigid board symbolises the supply side. When spending is strong enough, the economy’s resources are fully employed, allowing it to realise its full potential. As the workforce grows, capital accumulates and technology advances, this limit expands over time.

String theory

In a recession demand falls short of supply, leaving a sorry trail of unemployed workers, shuttered factories and unexploited innovations. But when the recovery arrives, Friedman suggested, it is all the more forceful because these resources have been lying idle, waiting to be brought back into production. The economy can grow faster than normal for a period until it reaches the point where it would have been without the crisis, when it reaches its full potential again (see chart 1, scenario 1).

Friedman’s story is heartening, but it can come unstuck in two ways. If the shortfall in demand persists it can do lasting damage to supply, reducing the level of potential output (scenario 2) or even its rate of growth (scenario 3). If so, the economy will never recoup its losses, even after spending picks up again.

Why should a swing in spending do such lasting harm? In a recession firms shed labour and mothball capital. If workers are left on the shelf too long, their skills will atrophy and their ties to the world of work will weaken. When spending revives, the recovery will leave them behind. Output per worker may get back to normal, but the rate of employment will not.

Something similar can happen to the economy’s assembly lines, computer terminals and office blocks. If demand remains weak, firms will stop adding to this stock of capital and may scrap some of it. Capital will shrink to fit a lower level of activity. Moreover, if the financial system remains in disrepair, savings will flow haltingly to companies and the cost of capital will rise. Firms will therefore use less of it per unit of output.

The result is a lower ceiling on production. In the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, its researchers count the cost of 88 banking crises over the past four decades. They find that, on average, seven years after a bust an economy’s level of output was almost 10% below where it would have been without the crisis.

This is an alarming gap. If replicated in the years to come, it would blight the lives of the unemployed, diminish the fortunes of those in work and make the public debt harder to sustain. But even worse scenarios are possible. A financial breakdown could do lasting damage to the growth in potential output as well as to its level. Even when the economy begins to expand, it may not regain the same pace as before.

Financial crises can pose such a threat to national incomes because of the way they erode national wealth. From the start of 2008 to the spring of this year the crisis knocked $30 trillion off the value of global shares and $11 trillion off the value of homes, according to Goldman Sachs, an investment bank. At their worst, these losses amounted to about 75% of world GDP. But despite their enormous scale, it is not immediately obvious why these losses should cause a lasting decline in economic activity. Natural disasters also wipe out wealth by destroying buildings, possessions and infrastructure, but the economy rarely slows in their aftermath. On the contrary, output often picks up during a period of reconstruction. Why should a financial disaster be any different?

The answer lies on the other side of the balance-sheet. Before the crisis the overpriced assets held by banks and households were accompanied by vast debts. After the crisis their assets were shattered but their liabilities remained standing. As Irving Fisher, a scholar of the Depression, pointed out, “overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”

Japan found this out to its cost in the 1990s after the bursting of a spectacular bubble in property and stock prices. For a “lost decade” from 1992 the economy stagnated, never recovering the growth rates posted in the 1980s. Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute in Tokyo calls Japan’s ordeal a “balance-sheet recession”.

The typical post-war recession begins when the flow of spending in the economy puts a strain on its resources, forcing prices upwards. Central banks raise interest rates to slow spending to a more sustainable pace. Once inflation has subsided, the authorities are free to turn the taps back on.

But in a “balance-sheet recession”, what must be corrected is not a flow but a stock. After the bubble burst, Japan’s companies were left with liabilities that far exceeded their assets. Rather than file for bankruptcy, they set about paying down their stock of debt to a manageable level. This was a protracted slog which, by Mr Koo’s reckoning, did not finish until 2005. In the meantime Japan’s economy stagnated. By 2002 its output was almost 23% below its pre-crisis trajectory.

Since Pimco’s forum concluded in May, the world economy has palpably improved. In many ways the new normal is beginning to look a lot like the old, vindicating Friedman’s plucking model. China is outpacing expectations. Goldman Sachs is making hay. The premium banks must pay to borrow overnight from each other is now below 0.25%, the level Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once described as “normal”. Companies in Europe and America are selling bonds at a furious pace. A few months ago financial newspapers were debating the future of capitalism. Now they are merely discussing the future of capital requirements. Shock has given way to relief.
The persistence of debt

But the relief is likely to be short-lived. Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.

This special report will argue that although a “new normal” for the world economy is now in sight, it will be different from the old normal in a number of ways. Demand in rich countries will remain weak and emerging economies will not be able to compensate. The report will explain why many governments will have to keep their stimulus packages going for longer than expected, or face entrenched unemployment that will permanently lower their economic potential. Public debt will rise so that private debt can fall. The banks, the report will show, will remain cautious about lending again, which will slow up the recovery but also make companies more careful about their investment; and the securitisation markets that became so fashionable during the boom will recede, though not disappear altogether.

A persistent shortfall in demand will weigh on supply. By the time this crisis is over, as many as 25m people may have lost their jobs in the 30 rich countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The danger is that several million may never regain them. The mobilisation of capital will be fitful as the financial system copes with past mistakes and impending regulation. The travails of finance, in turn, may prevent the recovering economy from backing and exploiting innovations.

Like Japan’s bubble years, the years that led to the global financial crisis have left a heavy legacy of debt on the balance-sheets of banks and households, especially in Britain and America. It is this legacy that allows past losses to depress future gains. Fisher, again, put it best: “I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.” There is no better example of that than American consumers.

-------------------------------------------------
contemplate to view or consider with continued attention, meditate on  *contemplate the vastness of the universe*
turmoil   a state or condition of extreme confusion, agitation, or commotion
fiscal of or relating to taxation, public revenues, or public debt  *fiscal policy*
shenanigans   a devious trick used especially for an underhand purpose
peer  to look narrowly or curiously;  especially  to look searchingly at something difficult to discern
rumination to go over in the mind repeatedly and often casually or slowly
subdue   to bring under control especially by an exertion of the will
bundle  PACKAGE, PARCEL  
harbour  to hold especially persistently in the mind  : CHERISH  *harbored a grudge*
pluck   a: to pick, pull, or grasp at  b : to play by sounding the strings with the
snap     a : to move briskly or sharply  *snaps to attention*  b : to undergo a sudden and rapid change (as from one condition to another)  *snap out of it*  *snapped awake*
shutter   to close by or as if by shutters  
idle   not occupied or employed: as  a : having no employment  : INACTIVE  *idle workers*
unstick   to release from a state of adhesion
mothball capital NOT FOUND
bust a complete failure  : FLOP  b : a business depression
stagnate   to become or remain stagnant
liability    something for which one is liable;  especially   : pecuniary obligation  : DEBT --usually used in plural
slog  to plod (one's way) perseveringly especially against difficulty
vindicate   a : to free from allegation or blame  b (1) : CONFIRM, SUBSTANTIATE  (2) : to provide justification or defense for  : JUSTIFY  c : to protect from attack or encroachment  : DEFEND
furious   a (1) : exhibiting or goaded by anger  (2) : indicative of or proceeding from anger  b : giving a stormy or turbulent appearance  *furious bursts of flame*  c : marked by noise, excitement, activity, or rapidity
impend    to be about to occur  *the impending Senate hearings*
balance-sheets In financial accounting, a balance sheet or statement of financial position is a summary of the financial balances of a sole proprietorship, a business partnership or a company. Assets, liabilities and ownership equity are listed as of a specific date, such as the end of its financial year.
beguiles  to lead by deception

====================================
comments
Like the article on art market, this one is also a little bit difficult for me to fully comprehend. Anyway, this essay, especially the title, reminds me of a news report released a few months ago in which the writer claimed that the recoup of American economy would be a NIKE Recovery. That’s to say, in processing the recovery, there will be a long slope to climb as the NIKE logo shows. Personally, I think it is a interesting analogy. Anyway, this very article cites the status quo as well as the history of Japanese recession to sketch a recovery blueprint which is also credible enough to believe. After reading these two articles (19 & 21), I am prone to agree that the globe is now witnessing the process of economic recovery.

windandrain2004UID：2597690

占～

aladdin.ivyUID：2596664

What kind of psychological state are you in when suffering the economic crisis, have you ever feel confused by this recessionary economy, atrophied stock market as well as the increasing unemployed rate which were wrought by the financial breakdown? Have you ever thought about why could this happen. Someone might have told you that the reason of all above is the International economy crisis, and you thought that may be true or that should be true. However, after half year since the crisis begins, the economy of America still under the negative impact of it, while, at the same time, the price of China’s property market have gradually goes up during the first half of 2009, so dose prices of Chinese stock market from the end of 2008, from which might make you reckon that China is passing away form this crises and bring you some kind of hope. But from August 2009, Chinese property and stock market seems have less power than before for a consistency increasing. Then you found that the China's economy has not recovered from this crisis, the crisis seems to have passed, yet, previous economic prosperity also passes away from you.

In fact, the nature of economy depression is not the bleak of hundreds businesses and widespread unemployed that simple. On the contrary, depression era is an era full of opportunities. However, these opportunities are not widely available, but hidden in some special areas and waiting for who set his mind to explore.

plukaUID：2721764

NOTE

Saddled（承受） with the worst credit rating in the country, the “Golden State” is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month.
Financial shenanigans（恶作剧，诡计） are not the sole province of the banking industry.

The world economy is fitfully（断断续续地） getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.

The crisis invited a forceful government entry into several of capitalism’s inner sanctums（圣地圣所密室）. Mr El-Erian worries that the state may overstay(逗留过久） its welcome.

But some forecasters now harbour（持有或抱有（某种特殊的思想或感情）） higher expectations.

Friedman’s story is heartening, but it can come unstuck（未黏住的，松开的，紊乱的） in two ways.
If so, the economy will never recoup（赔偿补偿扣除） its losses, even after spending picks up again.

Financial crises can pose such a threat to national incomes because of the way they erode national wealth.

This was a protracted（拖延的） slog（艰难行进）. In the meantime Japan’s economy stagnated. By 2002 its output was almost 23% below its pre-crisis trajectory（轨道轨线弹道，原来可以这么用）.

China is outpacing expectations（超出预料）.

Goldman Sachs is making hay（再创高峰）. 

But the relief is likely to be short-lived. Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.（有意思~）

The travails（辛苦，艰辛劳动） of finance, in turn, may prevent the recovering economy from backing and exploiting innovations.

==================
SUMMARY

This report explored the question whether the economy could recover steadfastly during post-crisis time.

After rumination, ''revert to mean'' prospect as well as a new norm featured by subdued growth and higher employment were suggested by Pimco.

Still, on the other hand, some people believed the economy could restore itself to the former state before this crisis. Among those optimistic opinion lies Friedman's piece of string and board metaphor, revealing that vigorous spending could stimulate the economy and employ its resources fully. 

String theory claimed that after crisis, the idled energy(work force, unexploited innovations,etc.) thrust the economy. Yet this statement overlooked the possibly permanent harm imposed by the shrinking spending during the crisis as the tie between laborers and economic world loosens, activity of companies declined, and ceilings of production lowered. The economy, therefore, may hardly to regain the same pace as before.

Meanwhile, financial crisis pose threat on national wealth. Not like other natural disasters, economic crisis not only shattered overpriced assets, but also left burdensome or even unfulfilled liabilities that hampered the developments afterwards. That is a ''balance-sheet recession''.

Months afer Pimco's meeting, world's economy seems to start bouncing back. Yet it may be short-lived. This special report argued that the influence of crisis required more cautions than expected.

================
COMMENT

Economy has long been a intriguing subject.Turmoils today have witnessed breakdowns of big companies as well as sufferings of laid-off workers. Unemployment rate will continue to be high, as mentioned in the report, stability of society will be challenged. To relieve such stress, government of China has already launched several programs motivating individuals to start enterprises of their own. And this seems to be the trend. Rapidly developed technologies, in the meantime, provide opportunities to small yet innovative newcomers to set root on the turbulent or unexploited fields.The advanced chip-making technics, for example, help many bandit(or shanzhai) cellphone makers gaining prosperity. The breakdown of monopoly, though appears disordered initially, may rewards the end.

jinziqiUID：2387034

Good sentences and words
Its information office promises nine miles of pristine sand, fine dining for devoted epicureans 享乐主义者 and an atmosphere of laid-back sophistication.
Yet students of economic turmoil 混乱 will find their subject matter conveniently close to hand.
Newport Beach is also the home of Pimco, the biggest bond manager in the world, which handles $840 billion on behalf of pension 养老金 funds,universities and other clients.
After two days of rumination 反刍,Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up.
In the new normal, as defined by Pimco’s CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, growth will be subdued 屈服的 and unemployment will remain high.
“The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,” and the securitisation 证券化 markets, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt,will presumably be a shadow of a shadow.      什么意思?
They draw inspiration from the work of the late Milton Friedman, who showed that in America deep recessions are generally followed by strong recoveries.

Moreover, if the financial system remains in disrepair, savings will flow haltingly to companies and the cost of capital will rise. Firms will therefore use less of it per unit of output.
Natural disasters also wipe out wealth by destroying buildings,possessions and infrastructure 公共建设, but the economy rarely slows in their aftermath 后果.
This was a protracted 拖延的 slog which, by Mr Koo’s reckoning, did not finish until 2005.
Just over a year ago, the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, the world economy fell off a precipice 悬崖. When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.
The mobilisation of capital will be fitful as the financial system copes with past mistakes and impending 即将发生的 regulation.

Good paragraphs
He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut 绷紧的 on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked 拉;拔, the more sharply it snaps 折断 back.
Friedman’s piece of string represents the demand side of the economy:the sum of spending by households, firms, foreigners and the government. The rigid board symbolises the supply side. When spending is strong enough, the economy’s resources are fully employed, allowing it to realise its full potential. As the workforce grows,capital accumulates and technology advances, this limit expands overtime.
Fisher, again, put it best: “I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.” There is no better example of that than American consumers.

My comment
This is an article about the world economic crisis. Since 2008,the  unemployment rate has increased all over the world. In China,there were more than 6 million graduates but many of them could not ind a job, not to mention to get a suitable job with their major. All companies in the world were cutting down employees to save more money.According to the author, the world economy is recovering with the effort of all nations. But the normal as we known has been changed so that demand in rich countries will remain weak and emerging economies will not be able to compensate.
In the article, the author used metaphor. He used piece of string which represents the demand side of the economy and the rigid board symbolizes the supply side. And he concluded that if a piece of string stretched taut on a board, the more forcefully the string is plucked,the more sharply it snaps back. The metaphor is so vivid that make me impressive who is lack of the knowledge of economy.

splendidsunUID：2723757

先占楼~
Comments：
This article talks about the problem that involves in every country-the global financial crisis. As we all know, this financial disaster brought widely difficulties for countries to recover. However, the world economy is recovering. Since the past losses are much larger than future gains, the effect of could not be seen very soon. In the state of California, the state government cut has filed for bankruptcy. And it had cut much of the spending in education, which makes difficult for faculties to apply for funding. Furthermore, the graduate schools admit less international students than before. Thus, the disadvantage since financial crisis happened is the decrease number of scholarships which may bring economic burden for oversea students to study abroad. The author also refers that even the world economy recovers, it will not return to normal. The crisis would have strong lasting effect on all aspects in our society that we would discover later on.

好句
He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked, the more sharply it snaps back.
When you are falling, you do not look up. Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.

难句
Moreover, if the financial system remains in disrepair, savings will flow haltingly to companies and the cost of capital will rise. Firms will therefore use less of it per unit of output.
“overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID：2679824

Comments

As a student in finance, I heard a lot about the global financial crisis, whether the reasons, the experience, the circumstance now or the future. Actually, there are so many reasons to explain it that even the experts of financial fields or the specialists inside the companies cannot make it clear. However, this article is not talk about how this financial crisis happened or why.

By comparing with Japan’s bubble years, the author tries to solve one problem in the article: what will be like after the recession? Although things seem to become better and better, the scenarios are not that promising.

On the surface, the situations about financial institutions are improving, especially for Goldman Sachs. Some 15 months after staring into the abyss, Goldman has raised billions of dollars from investors including Warren Buffett; received, and repaid, $10bn in government aid; and raked in $12.5bn in profits for the first nine months of 2009. Its shares trade at more than double their lows of a year ago and many of its 30,000 employees expect a bumper payday to wrap up the year. On the other hand, the American people are not that lucky. The unemployment rate in American reached over 10% in October, which is the highest during 26 years after the World War II and people have less money to consume. As a country whose more than two thirds GDP depends on consuming, it’s really not good news for America.

Maybe just like what is showed in this article, it’s easy to arrive at the “New Normal”, but it’s really hard to return the normal originally.




再加点背景资料吧~


OECD


The forerunner of OECD was the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (OEEC). OEEC was formed in 1947 to administer American and Canadian aid under the Marshall Plan for the reconstruction of Europe after World War II. Its headquarters were established at the Château de la Muette in Paris in 1949.

OECD took over from OEEC in 1961. Since then, its mission has been to help its member countries to achieve sustainable economic growth and employment and to raise the standard of living in member countries while maintaining financial stability – all this in order to contribute to the development of the world economy.

Its founding Convention also calls on it to assist sound economic expansion in other countries and to contribute to growth in world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis.

In order to contribute to the development of the world economy, OECD’s focus has progressively broadened to include a growing number of other countries, in addition to its 30 members. It now shares its expertise and accumulated experience with more than 70 developing and emerging market economies.

prettywraithUID：197049

Comments( 2009-12-21):
        From the headline of this article, we can conclude there is still long way to achieve  economic recovery. I agree with the author’s assertion, but his evidence is not sufficient.
        In this report, author does not mention what are the causes of this recession. I do not think society internal economic law leads to this depression. Actually, overwhelming speculation in Wall Street, which is the biggest financial market in the world, creates capital market crisis, leading to global economic crisis directly. Lacking efficient supervision for speculators in Wall Street, American government should be responsible for this serious crisis. And the Federal Reserve(FR) lows the currency interest in long-term, which increases the price of American houses, is another reason prompting recession. Although some economic specialists said “economy is recovering from financial disaster, with government huge fiscal stimulus.”, I will not anticipate for any real recovery, without government improving their regulation or central banks taking proper currency strategy.
        I have to say fiscal stimulus stop the crisis expanding, but this effect could only work shortly. Huge financial deficits will lead serious inflation. Until then, if the economy still cannot recover powerfully, there would be a real disaster for us, which may be “lost decade” or serious stagflation. I certainly hope this scene has happened, but until now American government do not do anything to improve their regulation except for quantitative easing, while there are a host of debt belonging to American or European consumers.

Good sentences:
“Its information office promises nine miles of pristine sand, fine dining for devoted epicureans and an atmosphere of laid-back sophistication. ”Promise, pristine sand, devoted epicureans, laid-back 这几个词的使用值得学习

“Saddled with the worst credit rating in the country, the ‘Golden State’ is cutting spending on schools, prisons and health care for the elderly, as well as closing parks and laying off staff for three days a month.”政府节约开支的几种说法全有了，以后写作可以学习。

“He likened the economy to a piece of string stretched taut on a board. The more forcefully the string is plucked, the more sharply it snaps back.”学习老外是怎么写类比的句子

Difficult sentences:
“They find that, on average, seven years after a bust an economy’s level of output was almost 10% below where it would have been without the crisis.” 看了好几遍才找出合适断句的地方，这里seven years after a bust应该是个做插入成分的时间状语

“overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”后面的“were they not conducted with borrowed money”应该是个省略if的倒装，这里为啥没加标点就不知道了。？？？


“The typical post-war recession begins when the flow of spending in the economy puts a strain on its resources, forcing prices upwards.” 这句话能大概猜出意思，但是put a strain on 这个具体什么意思不清楚。？？？

“Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb.”
这句话我理解是这样的一个句子“When only you hit bottom, you can stop and contemplate the cliff (that) you must now climb”，貌似这样能翻译的通，不知道对不对？？？

“I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.”句子意思大概明白，“as，and if”这里起什么作用？？？


参考资料 中英对照可以帮助理解
http://news.iciba.com/200901/547739.html

tequilawineUID：2702008

contemplate pristine  turmoil  shenanigan  pension funds  on behalf of  rumination   costlier  sanctum  lie idle  recoup  atrophy  replicate
stagnate  make hay翻晒干草  precipice  mobilisation
1 Yet students of economic turmoil will find their subject matter conveniently close to hand. 这句怎么翻译呀？
2 The world economy is fitfully getting back to normal, but it will be a “new normal”.
   世界经济将重新恢复正常，但是这将是一个新的正常。
3 Pimco’s laid-back sophisticates concluded that the financial markets may well “revert to mean”, which is a statistician’s way of saying that what comes down must go up.  "revert to mean"什么意思呀？
4  The answer lies on the other side of the balance-sheet.
5  “overinvestment and overspeculation…would have far less serious results were they not conducted with borrowed money.”
6  Once inflation has subsided, the authorities are free to turn the taps back on.
7  The premium banks must pay to borrow overnight from each other is now below 0.25%, the level Alan Greenspan, a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once described as “normal”. 也不明白
8  Only when you hit bottom can you stop and contemplate the cliff you must now climb. 很有意思
9  I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.”

from the author side, we can know that the over-confidence about future economy is really silly, taking all the fators metioned in the passage into account.initially,we can know that the portray of the golden state is pretty scaring and warning, but not as the most important just in order to elicit the real theme that the writter wanna express. the answer lies on two conflicting conlusion by the experts facing on the contemporary economy crisis condition. apparently author is more prone to the pessimistic one. and he gave us the full explanation of both ideas, furthermore, listed a couple of evidence and examples to convince us to believe the real situation waiting us is truculent and there is no fluke getting ahead.

tequilawineUID：2702008

jinziqi
       “The banking system will be a shadow of its former self,” and the securitisation 证券化 markets, which buy and sell marketable bundles of debt,will presumably be a shadow of a shadow.      什么意思?
        是不是说银行已经在自己前期各种过度行为的后果下了，而债券市场又是进行买卖银行等相关股票的债券，所以呢他就在阴影下的阴影了。
不知道这么理解对不。
prettywraith
      The typical post-war recession begins when the flow of spending in the economy puts a strain on its resources, forcing prices upwards.” 这句话能大概猜出意思，但是put a strain on 这个具体什么意思不清楚。？？？
put a strain on 是
vt. 使...紧张(使...经受考验)
但是我认为这里是说经济领域的产品消耗，使大宗商品的价格上涨。
“I fancy that over-confidence seldom does any great harm except when, as, and if, it beguiles its victims into debt.”句子意思大概明白，“as，and if”这里起什么作用？？？
是不是说三种假设情况呢，就是当什么时候，正如什么，如果。
不知道对不。