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- 声望
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- 2010-5-5
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- 268
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99) The following is a recommendation from the business manager of Monarch Books.
Since its opening in Collegeville twenty years ago, Monarch Books has developed a large customer base due to its reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books on all subjects. Last month, Book and Bean, a combination bookstore and coffee shop, announced its intention to open a Collegeville store. Monarch Books should open its own in-store café in the space currently devoted to children's books. Given recent national census data indicating a significant decline in the percentage of the population under age ten, sales of children's books are likely to decline. By replacing its children's books section with a café, Monarch Books can increase profits and ward off competition from Book and Bean.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument。
In this argument, the author considers that the only way to help Monarch Books is building a café, at the cost of the children's book section. However, the author's statement, with no precise evidence and data, is not warranted enough to persuade us that his recommendation is beneficial for Monarch Book.
Above all, the author should illustrate the concrete the competitiveness of Monarch Book to judge whether Monarch Book can ward off competition from Book and Bean or not. The reason why the author persists to add a café is that he thinks Monarch Book will be beat by Book and Bean, which possesses a café. But what if Monarch Book is powerful or even stronger than Book and Bean? In the argument, the author also refers to a powerful truth that Monarch Book is popular in Collegeville. It is very likely that even though Book and Bean has a wonderful café, customers in Collegeville prefer their old friend, Monarch Book, which is characterized by reader-friendly atmosphere and wide selection of books. Thus, without any fact that can predict or inflect the failure of Monarch Book, the author cannot arbitrarily conclude that Monarch Book will be beat.
Even if Monarch Book cannot compete with Book and Bean, we still need evidences to illuminate that building a café is the best and only way to save Monarch Book. There are many methods like optimizing the category, adding new and popular books, decreasing the price and so on. Various solutions are available for improving, not just a café. Some of them can even be better than this suggestion. With no consideration of them, this argument is unpersuasive. Besides, we have reason to believe that Monarch Book is not affordable for the café or people in Collegeville do not like the café at all. After all, the author does not prove that the cafe will be accessible here. If so, the recommendation would backfire.
The author also has to explain the situation of sales of children's books to attest that there must be fewer children consuming books in this section. In fact, the author deduces this assertion merely according to the plausible census data. However, it can be easily refuted from these many aspects. For example, firstly, a national census data is not equal to the local situation. So the population of children here may not diminish. Secondly, the decline in the percentage cannot reflect the decline in the quantity because it can be also caused by the increase of the total population, not just the decrease of children. Thirdly, since children under age ten are just parts of all children, the reduction of the former not necessarily means fewer children of all ages. Lastly, even though fewer children, there is no evidence of less consumption of children's books. Therefore, other special evidence is in need.
All in all, the feasibility of this recommendation remains to be further discussed. The author can compare the competitive and financial situation of two bookshops at first, and then complement evidence of the children's population and the necessity of building a cafe. Only by this can the author improve his statement.
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