[备考日记] 犹豫了很久，决定发个帖子督促自己。 [复制链接]

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31楼

发表于 2015-5-24 22:15:42 |只看该作者

far2go 发表于 2015-5-24 22:13
数学差。。笨鸟先飞

楼主加油！相互鼓励

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32楼

发表于 2015-5-24 22:18:01 |只看该作者

艾小卉发表于 2015-5-24 22:15
楼主加油！相互鼓励

嗯嗯

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33楼

发表于 2015-5-25 13:13:18 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 far2go 于 2015-5-25 14:15 编辑

Nash's Nobel prize
IT SOUNDS like a sports fan’s dream. In Stockholm on October 11th, three men shared a $1m prize for their skill at analysing games. They are not television pundits, or armchair critics of Manchester United or the Miami Dolphins, but economists. Two Americans, John Harsanyi and John Nash, and a German, Reinhard Selten, have won this year’s Nobel prize for economics for their studies of “game theory”.

Game theory may sound trivial. It is not. In the past 20 years or so it has revolutionised the economics of industrial organisation and has influenced many other branches of the subject, notably the theories of monetary policy and international trade. These days, no economics students can hope to graduate without knowing the rudiments of it.

Odd though it may seem, until game theory came along most economists assumed that firms could ignore the effects of their behaviour on the actions of others. That is fine when markets are perfectly competitive: what one firm or consumer does can make no difference to the overall picture. Fine, too, when unchallenged monopolists hold sway: they have no rivals to worry about.

But in many instances this assumption is wrong. Many industries are dominated by a few firms: by building a new plant or cutting prices (or threatening to cut them), a firm can affect how its rivals behave. And it is not just in industrial economics that such calculations matter. Some countries may impose (or threaten) trade sanctions against others in an attempt to prise open protected markets. A government may put up short-term interest rates when inflation is low to convince financial markets that it is serious about fighting inflation; with luck, the markets will then require lower long-term interest rates.

These examples are, in a way, just like games: no football coach plans an attack without taking into account the defenders’ likely response. Modern game theory was fathered by John von Neumann, a mathematician, and Oskar Morgenstern, an economist, who published “Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour” in 1944 (an anniversary which was not lost on this year’s Nobel-prize givers). Messrs Harsanyi, Nash and Selten have honed it into the sharp tool economists use today.

In the early 1950s Mr Nash produced a compelling way of working out how games will end up when players cannot commit themselves, or do not want to collude with each other. A “Nash equilibrium” occurs when no player wants to change his strategy, given full knowledge of other players’ strategies.

Take one famous example of a Nash equilibrium. An industry has two firms (1 and 2). Each of them can choose a “high” or a “low” price. If they both choose high prices, they make hefty profits, of $3m apiece. With low prices, they make only $2m each. But if one sets a high price and the other a low one, the low-price firm makes $4m; the high-price firm gets a mere $1m. Although the firms would do best if they both set high prices, they will not. If firm 1 sets a high prices, firm 2’s best choice is to undercut it: it would earn $2m instead of $1m. The same goes for firm 1: it too sets a low price. So they both choose low prices—and they make only $2m each.

The incredible game theorist

But Mr Nash’s work needed refining. First, it applies to games played only once, or in which players move simultaneously. But virtually all interesting economic games involve continual interaction between players. Mr Selten extended the Nash equilibrium to such settings. From that emerges the importance of credibility: there is no point in one player following a plan which other players know will have to be changed at some point.

For example, a monopolist might try to keep a would-be rival out of its market by threatening a price war if the rival steps in. Such a war might mean that the entrant would make a loss. But it would be costly for the monopolist, too. If the price war costs a lot, the monopolist would do better to share the market with the new entrant. In that case, the threat of a price war is not credible: the entrant can go into the market, knowing that the incumbent would be foolish to fight back.

Second, it is not realistic to assume that the players know what is in each other’s minds. As Adam Brandenburger of Harvard Business School puts it, “games are played in a fog.” Mr Harsanyi cut through the mist, by showing that games in which players are not well informed about each other can be analysed in almost the same way as ordinary games.

When some players have information that others do not, their strategies can alter their reputations to their advantage. A government that shoves interest rates up to signal its anti-inflationary credentials is one example. Or take a monopolist that would like to stop entry into its market. It can do so if would-be rivals fear that it likes fighting price wars, in spite of the cost. By fighting anyone who does enter, the monopolist can built a reputation as a price warrior and put other entrants off. And oligopolists may be able to keep profits up by setting high prices and nurturing reputations for being friendly to their rivals.

Yet some economists are still wary of game theory, despite the insights it has brought. That is partly because the theory is difficult: it demands lots of tricky mathematics. That, however, is merely a reflection of the complexity of the world. But there is a more telling objection—namely, that game theory is just that: theory. So far there have been precious few real-life applications. Game theorists have been good at explaining the intricacies underlying strategic interdependence and producing ever more refined concepts of equilibrium but less adept at giving governments and firms practical advice.

Even that criticism, though, is weakening. Central bankers now know all about reputation and credibility. America’s Federal Communications Commission used game theorists to design this year’s auction of radio spectrum. And businesses, too, are beginning to learn about game theory: Harvard’s Mr Brandenburger, for example, teaches it to MBA students and executives. The time is coming, he says, when self-respecting MBAs, as well as economics graduates with a taste for maths, will not leave school without it.

main content： there are three people won the economic Noble Price, two of them are Americans, one is German. They introduced "Game Theory". The author explains what Game Theory and Nash equilibrium is and present examples to us. I remember the example to Nash equilibrium is there are 2 firms in one field, if they both set same price, they will earn same profit, if not, it is different(unfortunately, I do not understand what it really mean

) Although it is not perfect because it only play for once, someone has expanded it. And some of economist do not totally accept it, it is because that it require intricate math. Nowadays, it is used widely, including authorities and universities.

author's attitude: I think the author's attitude is that although it is not perfect, it actually have a huge influence in our life, he is praise of it.

得看两遍才能基本明白

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34楼

发表于 2015-5-25 23:13:16 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 far2go 于 2015-5-31 23:06 编辑

	Mon(5.25)	Tue(5.28)	wed(5.27)	Thu(5.28)	Fri(5.29)	Sat(5.30)	Sun(5.31)
TC	陈圣元s86-88			magoosh easy:10	23	20	23
RC	36T 1 & 讲解 & 五步法 1篇	36T 2 & 重新复习了下第一套		36T 2讲解& 2篇吴中东&2篇五步法	36 T3	36T 4 五步法 2	五步法1 看了一点LSAT guide
单词	复习了之前填空的笔记				500	500	500
长难句	20				20	20	20
数学	20	20		20	20	20	20

5.25: 36T-1 6/13 t: 32m
5.26: 36T-2 6/13 t: 35m 有一篇文章之前做过了还错成这样。。 5.28: 一些长文章看下来，完全没记住在说什么 :(
5.30: 今天做了下作业，快到期末了，有两科大作业得完成。。
5.31: 阅读只停留在字面意思上，没能发觉背后的含义，因此一直没很好地体会阅读在考逻辑。要好好分析分析及篇文章，找出同义替换和潜台词。

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35楼

发表于 2015-5-26 09:28:22 |只看该作者

本帖最后由无敌浩克One 于 2015-5-26 09:29 编辑

far2go 发表于 2015-5-25 13:13
Nash's Nobel prize
IT SOUNDS like a sports fan’s dream. In Stockholm on October 11th, three men sh ...

你昨天发的那个网页不会用啊，泪目
这篇文章我也看看去~~
PS昨天又堕落了一天，和你的效率比差好多，求激励！！
PS昨天用speedy的软件，才200的速度T_T感觉自己绝对是大脑退化越来越笨反应越来越慢了

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发表于 2015-5-26 12:18:51 |只看该作者

无敌浩克One 发表于 2015-5-26 09:28
你昨天发的那个网页不会用啊，泪目
这篇文章我也看看去~~
PS昨天又堕落了一天，和你的效率比差好多， ...

哪个步骤不会？
我效率不高啊。。我有一整天时间的。我阅读速度才100出头那样。。200字绝对够了的，你别太担心了。

无敌浩克One
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37楼

发表于 2015-5-26 15:14:07 |只看该作者

far2go 发表于 2015-5-26 12:18
哪个步骤不会？
我效率不高啊。。我有一整天时间的。我阅读速度才100出头那样。。200字绝对够了的，你别 ...

我复制了一个链接，但是他说连接有问题
然后我想复制一篇文章进去，没找到怎么复制

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38楼

发表于 2015-5-26 16:22:26 |只看该作者

无敌浩克One 发表于 2015-5-26 15:14
我复制了一个链接，但是他说连接有问题
然后我想复制一篇文章进去，没找到怎么复制

https://www.instapaper.com/save
你看看这个不行再问

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39楼

发表于 2015-5-28 21:15:40 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 far2go 于 2015-5-28 22:18 编辑

老g阅读好难

，还是练练五步法压压惊吧。
The start of the rebellion?

1. Background, introduce an economist and his assertion.
2. In his day, have more leisure time was tread as uselessness and the number of working hours is climbing over 50 years, especially in highly educated people.
3. one suggestion, the people of lower class emulate the people of higher class, working longer.
4. But a report in Australian shows the opposite.
5. conclusion, give a "sour grapes" explanation.

some skin off their noses

main content: in microgravity condition, body's fluid will redistribute, astronauts are subject to more deleterious
than we think. loss of bone density and muscle mass is two of effects, in 1990, people find the injuries of skin, they ascribed it to low humidity in space. some experiment use mice as subject, many of them died. its skin become thiner. But someone said that human is different from mice, the question about the effects of skin is still open. the further research will bring more information

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40楼

发表于 2015-5-28 21:59:42 |只看该作者

我长难句看来两遍，阅读照样没法提速

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41楼

发表于 2015-5-28 22:03:12 |只看该作者

vinci_goh 发表于 2015-5-28 21:59
我长难句看来两遍，阅读照样没法提速

我gre部分的也看了两遍了。。效果不明显，我觉得还是得和阅读结合起来才有效果。

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42楼

发表于 2015-5-30 10:42:14 |只看该作者

本帖最后由 far2go 于 2015-5-30 20:28 编辑

the weaker sex

main content: Although men are dominating the world, there are some problems need to concern. Men are more likely to drop-out school than women, when they lose their job, they do not tend to find job again. the outcome of them is no job and no family. it would become a vicious circle，if children were raised up without father, it is bad for them. Both policy and education system need to change to help this situation.

her final steps

main content： Ms G is called the "greatest dancer of our time" due to the main two facts, the perfect figure and her grit. many dancers are struggling for continue to perform ballet beyond 30, she transformed ballet to contemporary dance when she was 38. she performed some most famous female role in some ballet. the author makes some examples to substantiate it and highly praise her.