[a习作temp] 历时三个小时，终于憋出来第一篇A，求全方位拍 [复制链接]

kwnxk
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电梯直达

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发表于 2012-3-25 20:49:16 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

憋了几个小时，期间还大量查阅资料，掩面泪奔啊
题目
51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
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In this argument, the author concludes that the restaurants in the southeast and northeast should chang butter to margarine so that they will cut expense on purchasing butter and increase profitability. The conclusion above sounds reasonable, however, further reflection reveals that it fail to provide convincing support to substantiate the argument. In my view, this argument suffers from 3 logical flaws.
In the first place, the arguer fails to convince us that 98 percent of customers are glad with the change since only about 2 percent of them have complained. No complaining does not equal to happy with the change. Customers who have not complained may be far from happy while they just have not spoken it out. It is possible that customers express their displeasure simply by not asking for butter or not returning the restaurant any more. The greater percentage of such people, the weaker the argument's evidence as a sign of customer's satisfaction with the change is. Lacking more concrete information about customer's atitudes, the arguer can not assume that the great majority of customers are pleased with the change.
In the second place, the fact that numerous customers do not complain when they are given margarine instead of butter does not ensure that they cannot distinguish butter from margarine. This argument is unacceptable unless there is compelling evidence to support the connection between these two events. For example, those customers who do not complain when they are given margarine just unwilling to do so. Apart from this reason, maybe they have to go to work or school punctually, they do not want their work to be delayed because of this butter thing.
Building upon the implication that customers in the southwest glad with the change or they cannot distinguish butter from margarine, the author still commits the fallacy of "fasle analogy". The arguer's recommendation relies on what might be a poor analogy falsely depends on the assumption that customers in the southeast and northeast are similar to people in the southwest. Custom various in different places. It is possible that people in southeast and northeast have enough sense to distinguish butter from margarine or they resent margrine strongly. Even customers in southeast and northeast accept margarine well, the conclusion that profitability will increase is unwarranted. Profit is a factor relating to not only revenue, but also cost. It's entirely possible that the cost of margrine is high than butter in the southeast and northeast.
To sum up, the author fails to subtantiate his claim that the change from butter to margrine in the southeast and northeast will cut down the expense of purchasing butter and increase profitability. To make the conclusion more convincing, the author would have to provide more information about the true ideas of customers and the differences between customers in the different places.

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yayunparty
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沙发

发表于 2012-4-1 14:50:58 |只看该作者

1# kwnxk

同51，求拍！
In the memo, the business manager of Happy Pancake House (HPH) restaurants concludes that the HPH should extend the cost-saving change to all restaurants in the southeast and northeast to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability. To support his conclusion the manager cites the facts that only 2 people out of 100 have complained about the change and that some customers do not complain when given margarine instead of butter they ask for. The manager also points out that either the customers cannot differentiate butter from margarine or they use the term "butter" to refer to both. At first glance, the manager's argument seems to be somewhat convincing, but careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that the reasoning made by the author is flawed and certain critical questions need to be answered to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted results.

The first question that requires elucidation is the customers' real attitude towards the change. That only about 2 percent of customers have complained does not necessarily suggest that average 98 people out of 100 are happy with it. It is entirely possible that they are also unhappy with it but due to some certain reasons they just keep quiet and say nothing about it. For instance, the services of the restaurant are so nice that offset the bad effects of the change. At the same time, the fact that a number of customers do not complain when given margarine instead of butter does not demonstrate clearly the attitude of customers - let alone infer that these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine. Common sense informs us that customers are always loath/reluctant to quarrel with the servers and do not want to be bothered by these little trouble. If this is the case, it is really likely that these customers just keep silence and never come to the restaurant again. Without considering and ruling out these possibilities, the manager's conclusion is indefensible. In order to know exactly about the customers' real attitude towards the change, a marketing survey seems to be necessary and useful.

Secondly, even if the southwest customers are happy or indifferent/unconcerned with the change, the next question coming to our mind is whether the change can be extended to restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well. Although this is entirely possible, the argument does not provide adequate information to substantiate it. It is very likely that the southeast and northeast residents are so crazy about butter that they do not want to anything to replace it. Or perhaps they do not like the flavor of margarine. To effectively corroborate the argument, the manager may have to provide complete and convincing information about the possible response of the southeast and northeast customers to the change.

Finally, even if the change could be extended to all restaurants, an obvious question is whether the change could really increase profitability. As we all know, profitability is a function of both revenue and cost. The argument does not give any information about the procurement cost of butter and margarine. Even if in the southwestern United States the price of butter is higher than that of margarine, the argument cannot convince us that the price of margarine is relatively low in the southeast and northeast. Moreover, we must consider transportation cost as well. Thus, it is quite possible that the restaurants' costs of procuring margarine might render it unprofitable. In short, without more information about supply, demand, procure costs and revenue, it is impossible to determine whether the restaurant can increase profits.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. Additional questions would require elucidation before one could comprehensively evaluate the manager's recommendation. To strengthen the argument, the manager should provide clear evidence about customers' real attitude towards the change and the possible response in the southeast and northeast – a marketing survey may be useful. Finally, to better assess the argument, I need more information about the revenue and cost of change butter with margarine.

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我系只喵
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板凳

发表于 2012-4-3 16:28:43 |只看该作者

嘿嘿，我是来膜拜一下诸位的~~~~
In this argument,（我比较纠结用这个词开头，因为老外280貌似很多都是这个词，现在也巨多人用~） the author concludes that the restaurants in the southeast and northeast should chang（change?） butter to margarine so that they will cut expense on purchasing butter and increase（increasing?）profitability. The conclusion above sounds reasonable, however, further reflection reveals that it fail（fails） to provide convincing support to substantiate（我觉得这个词用得好好哦~） the argument.（不过大家是不是应该讨论下，我觉上面那句话好空啊，如果单独摆出来，天知道是针对什么的，OG6、5分貌似都没有出现过这种句子） In my view, this argument suffers from 3 logical flaws. （第一段，给人感觉很空，LZ仅仅写出了arguer的结论，其他还有很多东西，例如evaluation，evidence神马的都用类似模板的东西空泛的带过，不太好吧？讨论一下？？）
In the first place, the arguer fails to convince us that 98 percent of customers are glad with the change since only about 2 percent of them have complained. No complaining does not equal to （这里是不是缺主语啊？大家看看？我怎么觉得要加consumers are呢？）happy（用glad的话呢？？） with the change. Customers who have not complained may be far from happy while they just have not spoken it out. It is possible that customers express their displeasure simply by not asking for butter or not returning the restaurant any more. The greater percentage of such people, the weaker the argument's evidence as a sign of customer's satisfaction with the change is. Lacking more concrete（我觉得这个词也不错~） information about customer's atitudes（attitudes）, the arguer can not assume that the great majority of customers are pleased with the change. （这段用了总分总的结构，中间有例证，感觉很充实哦~而且论述也很有条理，层层递进。）
In the second place, the fact that numerous customers do not complain when they are given margarine instead of butter does not ensure that they cannot distinguish butter from margarine. This argument is unacceptable（以我的拙见，虽然我知道argument指的是题目中的，但This让人看起来像是上文的）unless there is compelling（这个词也不错） evidence to support the connection between these two（哪两个？求教LZ） events. For example, those customers who do not complain when they are given margarine just unwilling to do so.（是不是用when given会更好？还有，这个举例是针对evidence的吗？其实我知道你说的是他们不抱怨，并不代表不知道人造奶油，但感觉跟上句衔接不好，拙见~~） Apart from this reason, maybe they have to go to work or school punctually, they do not want their work to be delayed because of this butter thing. （可能是由于题目的原因，让人感觉第二段完全可以放到第一段里面）
Building upon the implication that customers in the southwest glad with the change or they cannot distinguish butter from margarine, （有个小承上~~学习一下！）the author still commits the fallacy of "fasle（false）analogy". The arguer's recommendation relies on what might be a poor analogy falsely depends on the assumption that customers in the southeast and northeast are similar to people in the southwest（是不是说人对奶油的取向相同更好一点呢）. （需不需要来个小转折？）Custom various in different places. It is possible that people in southeast and northeast have enough sense to distinguish butter from margarine or they resent margrine strongly. Even customers in southeast and northeast accept margarine well, the conclusion that profitability will increase is unwarranted. Profit is a factor relating to not only revenue, but also cost. It's entirely possible that the cost of margrine is high than butter in the southeast and northeast（我觉得这里的层层推理也很好哦，膜拜一下~）.
To sum up, the author fails to subtantiate（substantiate） his claim that the change from butter to margrine in the southeast and northeast will cut down the expense of purchasing butter and increase profitability. To make the conclusion more convincing, the author would have to provide more information about the true ideas of customers and the differences between customers in the different places.（最后结尾概括了上面三段，不错不错）
求回拍！

喵~~~~~~~

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