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本帖最后由 winterfine 于 2011-8-9 21:12 编辑
The following was written by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
A comprehensive investigation concerning the potential difficulty facing the investor is undoubtedly necessary, However, by taking into account only one distant jazz club, the author's questionable optimism is obvious. While some facts are provided to prove the popularity of jazz in Monroe, more questions are to be answered to demonstrate the conclusion that the C Note is profitable.
Lacking more specific information about the local jazz entertainment business, the optimistic attitude towards the coming rival is unfounded. The author mentions in the argument that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, implying that this jazz club is the only option for residents in Monroe to enjoy the jazz atmosphere. In this way, the author fails to account for the alternative possibilities that other forms of clubs, say music clubs, or even bars may provide jazz performances as well, which proves to be a common method to attract more customers. In addition, 65 miles is possibly not too far for a true lover of jazz, who seeks music of high quality. In this case, the C Note is going to deal with more fierce competition than anticipated.
Even if the new jazz club is able to take control of the local market with ease, the question that if this place is worth of the initial investment is not easy to answer at all. Stated in the application is the fact that over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer. Here, it is assumed that the huge number of the participants in the festival equals to a prevailing love for jazz in this city. Despite the enthusiasm observed last summer, how many locals are actually attracted to the event remains to be answered. It is possible that more than 99% of the jazz fans were from other cities and such a festival causes discontent among the locals. Also in reference to the well-known jazz musicians, we may suppose that it is probably the local indifference regarding jazz that made the musicians settle down, which results in a pleasant peace most famous people seek. Anyway, the popularity requires further investigation.
In regards to the nationwide study, no evidence has been provided to make clear the exact distribution of the $1000. CDs, concerts and even instruments are all good choices to expend the money. Citizens in Monroe, accordingly, may not spend much on the club as the author might have expected, while they do love jazz. Meanwhile the investor assumes that the average national consumption on jazz fairly represents the local level, failing to rule out other situations in which the general income in Monroe, which is obviously lower than normal, makes consuming in a jazz club a luxury.
To sum up, although investing in a jazz club located in Monroe appears promising according to the author, the unanswered questions calls for our further consideration and study into the market there |
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