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[备考小组] 14年秋季提纲互改小组-argument 51 [复制链接]

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发表于 2014-10-18 16:18:50 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由 tesolchina 于 2014-10-21 22:00 编辑

本帖来自"王老师GRE提纲+全文互改小组"，欢迎关注！你还可以查看更多小组、创建小组

51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

相关argument： 15 130 131 133
请根据这里的指引列出提纲并点评楼上组员的提纲或直接回帖参与讨论。
指引网址：https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777374-1-1.html

这道题在旧版北美范文里有，我参考了一下，有的点不错，但整篇并不是很全面。这里贴出我的提纲和全文以及北美范文。全部为白色，请组员先自己思考、列提纲以后再参考。

我的提纲及全文

claim: to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

data: Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States.
data: Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
data: Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
data: Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

warrant: only 2% have complained about the replacement suggesting that the rest of them are satisfied with the change
warrant: customers who are given margarine did not complain, therefore, it is ok to replace it
warrant: customers cannot distinguish or do not distinguish; therefore, it is OK to replace

Questions should be asked about what percentages of the customers are affected by the replacement; the attitudes of the customers being given margarine instead of butter; the preferences of the customers in southeast and northeast

The business manager argues that HPH restaurants in southeast and northeast should follow the practice of replacing butter with margarine as customers in southwest seemed to be happy with the arrangement which can save costs for the company. We need to ask a number of questions about how the replacement affected the food at HPH, how the customers felt about the replacement and what difference there might be between southwest customers and the customers in the other regions in order to evaluate the soundness of the argument.

To begin with, we need to know what percentages of the food and the customers have been affected by the replacement to better understand what it means to have 2% of customers complaining. If, for example, only half of the food items on the menu were prepared with butter (or margarine after replacement) or about 30% of customers actually ordered anything with butter replaced by margarine, the fact that 2% of customers complained would be far more significant than the number suggested. In other words, the customers who ordered pancake without butter to begin with or the food items that do not include butter should be excluded from the data if we want any meaningful information.

In addition, we need to know the real attitudes of customers towards the replacement of butter with margarine. The fact that most customers being given margarine did not complain does not mean that these customers were completely satisfied with the new arrangement.  Complaining about the food in a restaurant can be a stressful experience for many customers who do not want to ruin the time they spent with their friends or family members.  They may choose to vote against the restaurant by feet by not coming to the restaurant next time instead of making a complaint right away. Therefore, we need to investigate how customers felt about the change through other means such as focus group, interviewing or simply monitoring the number of returning customers.

Moreover, it is not safe to assume that what works in one region would necessarily do the trick in a different region. Therefore, we need to ask if the customers in the other regions have the same preferences when it comes to butter vs. margarine.  We need to carefully compare the demographic information of the different regions and investigate how different ages, income, gender and educational levels may affect customers’ preferences for butter in a pancake restaurant. Such information is vital for the company to make decisions about adopting this new policy in other areas.

Finally, it is important to ask whether it is ethical to keep the customers in the dark with regard to the use of butter versus margarine. The company needs to know what the customers really want when they use the term “butter” rather than simply assuming that butter can mean both real butter and the cheaper substitute.  Offering the customers something cheaper than what the customers expect and taking advantages of the ambiguity in the naming of food may be unethical practices that would harm the restaurant’s reputation and long-term profitability and may even carry legal consequences.

Overall speaking, it is understandable that the company looks for ways to save costs and increase profits and replacing butter with something cheaper seems to be smart move. But this arrangement should not be extended to more restaurants in other regions unless the questions raised above are answered and the information collected clearly suggests that this arrangement is a desirable move.

北美范文

In this argument the speaker recommends that, in order to save money, Happy Pancake House (HPH) should serve margarine instead of butter at all its restaurants. To support the argument, the speaker points out that HPH's Southwestern restaurants now serve margarine but not butter, and that only 2% of these restaurants' customers have complained about the change. The speaker also cites reports from many servers that a number of customers asking for butter have not complained when given margarine instead. This argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First of all, the speaker does not indicate how long these restaurants have been refusing margarine to customers. If the change is very recent, it is possible that insufficient data have been collected to draw any reliable conclusions. Lacking this information I cannot assess the reliability of the evidence for the purpose of showing that HPH customers in the Southwest are generally happy with the change.
Secondly, the speaker fails to indicate what portion of HPH customers order meals calling for either butter or margarine. Presumably, the vast majority of meals served at any pancake restaurant call for one or the other. Yet it is entirely possible that a significant percentage of HPH customers do not order pancakes, or prefer fruit or another topping instead. The greater this percentage, the less meaningful any statistic about the level of customer satisfaction among all of HPH's Southwestern customers as an indicator of preference for butter or margarine.
Thirdly, the speaker unfairly assumes that HPH customers unhappy with the change generally complain about it. Perhaps many such customers express their displeasure simply by not returning to the restaurant. The greater the percentage of such customers, the weaker the argument's evidence as a sign of customer satisfaction with the change. Two additional problems specifically involve the reports from "many" servers that "a number" of customers asking for butter do not complain when served margarine instead. Since the speaker fails to indicate the percentage of servers reporting or customers w,-ho have not complained to servers, this evidence is far too vague to be meaningful. Also, the speaker omits any mention of reports from servers about customers who have complained. Since the anecdotal evidence is one-sided, it is inadequate to assess overall customer satisfaction with the change.
Finally, even if HPH's Southwest customers are happy with the change, the speaker unfairly assumes that customers in other regions will respond similarly to it. Perhaps Southwestemers are generally less concerned than other people about whether they eat margarine or butter. Or perhaps Southwestemers actually prefer margarine to butter, in contrast to prevailing tastes elsewhere. Or perhaps Southwestemers have relatively few choices when it comes to pancake restaurants.
In sum, the speaker's argument is weak. To better assess it I would need to know: (1) how long the change has been in effect in the Southwest, (2) what percentage of HPH servers and managers have received customer complaints about the change, and (3) the number of such complaints as a percentage of the total number of HPH customers who order meals calling for either butter or margarine. To strengthen the argument, the speaker must provide clear evidence--perhaps by way of a reliable survey--that HPH customers in other regions are likely to be happy with the change and continue to pa tronize HPH after the change.

argu 15 Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House

本帖最后由 skywongchiu 于 2014-12-18 12:19 编辑

本帖来自"14年秋季GRE提纲+全文互改小组"，欢迎关注！你还可以查看更多小组、创建小组

The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.

Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

相关题目：51, 130 131, 133
请回帖时按照指引( https://bbs.gter.net/thread-1777364-1-1.html )列出英语提纲并用汉语解释并根据指引点评楼上的提纲。第一个回帖的同学不必点评

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6楼

发表于 2014-12-18 12:04:31 |只看该作者

In a memo, the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants states that the change of replacing butter by margarine throughout the southwestern United States has had little impact on our customers, citing the evidence that only 2 percent of customer have complained the change. In order to better evaluate the argument, alternative explanations should be considered.

1. 2%的投訴是否代表98%人同意
2. Severs 的反應是否正確
3. 客人是否沒有能力分清term

王老師的comment
1. 98%客人可能沒有order butter相閞的食物, 98%人order了的食物以前都是用margarine instead of butter,所以他們不投訴
2. Severs反應不了真實的數字，　因為投訴會影響他們的performance, 令到人工下降
3. 客人不投訴不代表不理解term or 接受，　可能他們直接走了 or 投訴的方法不方便

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7楼

发表于 2015-3-4 00:07:38 |只看该作者

今天算休息，写篇Argument...

51) The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on the low level of complaints and reports from servers, the manager concludes that the customers do not care about the replacement of butter with margarine and further proposes to apply this change in other branches to make more money. However, before the decision is made, further questions about the customer satisfaction, veracity of server reports and potential reaction of customers in other places should be answered, to make sure the proposal is tenable.

Firstly, we need to ask whether customers are really OK with the change or not. We can't conclude that the 98% customers who don't complain are happy with the change. The percentage of complaints is low, but what if customers who don't like the change do not bother to complain at all and just walk out of the door and never come back again, or more badly post some complaints on the website without telling the restaurant. The impact will be very serious if the bad comments are spreading on the internet and the replacement of butter will be cost a lot of money of the restaurant.

Besides, the question about the servers' reports should be answered to confirm the attitude of customers. Some servers may not want to report the complaints which may embarrass themselves. They may be more encouraged to report the good feedback so that they can get better performance review or even more bonus. Also, the coverage of restaurants from where the reports are submitted should be evaluated. Only if the coverage is complete enough and the veracity of reports is confirmed, can we confirm that customers are OK with the change.

Last but not least, before we extend the change to other regions, we need to answer more questions about the customers and cost difference between butter and margarine there. There are chances that the customers in southeast are more sensitive to the difference of taste between butter and its replacement, which may cause greater decrease of the number of customers; or the cost of butter and margarine are quite close which is not worth taking the risk of potential loss of customers.

In summary, more questions about customers' satisfaction and servers' reports should be answered to better support the conclusion that customers are OK with the change in southwest. And there are more questions to ask about the situation in other places to make convincing the proposal to extend the change.

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[备考小组] 14年秋季提纲互改小组-argument 51 [复制链接]

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argu 15 Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House

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