[a习作temp] Argument147 第一次贴，谢一个先 [复制链接]

dreamcolor
UID：2120960

新手上路

Rank: 1

声望: 0
寄托币: 32
注册时间: 2005-7-25
精华: 0
帖子: 0

电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2005-7-28 19:41:23 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

第一次贴，谢一个先
In this argument, the arguer concludes that the sales trend of Whirlwind video games is about to be reversed and the sales are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To illustrate this, the arguer cites the result of a recent survey of video-game players. The result of the survey shows that video-game players prefer lifelike graphics most. Meanwhile, the arguer points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old. Nevertheless, the argument is based on several unsubstantiated assumptions and therefore unconvincing as it stands.
In the first place, the arguer fails to point out why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over past two years. If the decline is due to the reason that the games that Whirlwind provides do not cater to the players, then the measures taken by Whirlwind may be useful. However, a number of other factors may also account to the decline. Mismanagement, lack of originality in recent games, or the decline in the number of video-game players may all contribute to the decline in sales. In short, without ruling out other factors it is a little hasty to justify the arguer’s conclusion.
In the second place, the arguer concludes that video-game players value lifelike graphics most on the assumption of the reliability of the survey. However, the arguer fails to provide any evidence about how the people being surveyed are selected. It may not be representative for the reason that those people who do not like lifelike graphics have not been surveyed, which may account for an even larger portion of the total players. Nor any evidence provided about the number of people being surveyed. If the sample is too small, the result of the survey may not represent the overall preference of the players. Without more information about the details about the process of the survey, the arguer's assumption is dubious at best.
Even assuming that the video-game players do value lifelike graphics most, the arguer's further assumption that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase dramatically because of the newly introduced such games is still unwarranted. The arguer has overlooked the possibilities that the other companies may still introduce lifelike graphics which is more riveting than Whirlwind's games. Another possible scenario is that other companies may have lower prices than Whirlwind which may prevent the players to buy Whirlwind's games. Without ruling out these possibilities, the assumption cannot convince me of the increase sales of Whirlwind's games.
Last but not least, no evidence shows that player between 10 to 25 years old values lifelike graphics most. Granted the credibility of the survey, it only shows that video-game players, that is, players of all ages, think lifelike graphics is the most important feature. Yet, it is entirely possible that players between the age of 10 to 25 do not like lifelike graphics such, or even at all. To the extent that this is the case, then Whirlwind's advertising campaign may be digressed, and lead to no anticipated results in the sales.
In conclusion, the argument is not supportive enough to justify the arguer's conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the arguer has to investigate the reason of recent decline in sales, and provide more information about how the survey is conducted and whether the sample is large enough and well selected to represent the overall video-players. To better evaluate the argument, we need more information about the players between the age of 10 to 25, and the necessity of the extensive advertising campaign.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-29 at 00:25 ]