[a习作temp] argument226 ,第一次作业，拍我，拍我：） [复制链接]

blueoceanally
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电梯直达

楼主

发表于 2007-4-11 14:52:36 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

226The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company.
"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."

This argument concludes that in order to continue to thrive, our automobile manufacturing company need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible. To substantiate his conclusion, the arguer cites that the marketing projections indicate that the number of automobiles people wanted to buy is much more than the production of our exist plant. In addition, the arguer suggest that the new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, which was proved successful by a major airplane manufacturer five years ago. Although this argument appeared convince on the first glance, a through scrutiny reveal that it suffer from several critical logical fallacies.

As the threshold matter, does the market is really that large as the arguer claims and has beyond production of the exist plant? It is an open question to doubt. The marketing projections’ indication that 80 million people would want to buy our automobiles is true or not? Firstly, is the marketing projection authority enough to indicate the prospect of the our automobile plant? Secondly, if there are really 80 million people who want to buy our automobiles, whether they really buy or not? it still remain questionable. Maybe majority of them just like the automobile but they don’t afford it or they didn’t in possession of a garage for automobile keeping, which will result in their not buying our automobiles. Even if there are 80 million order on the desk, it can be deal with producing in batches and one batch at a time. Thus, there are lacking evidence to conclude that we really should open a new plant.

In addition, open a new plant is a huge project that we should consider it carefully. A corporation should take every detain into account before it determine to open a new plant. If the increasing market share is now beyond the production of our exist plant, should we open a new one doubtlessly? Imaging that, local recently weather is bad and extremely cold , people would rather to get out by car rather than by other vehicles, which fact boost the market share of automobile is sharply increase. But when the weather get warm and sunny, people are willing to walk or get out by bike to contact the spring time, the market share of automobile will decline dramatically, if the new plant is complete that time, it will remain unused. The waste of money and energy to build it is totally in vain. To conclude, does the increase continue? It is critical mattered.

Furthermore, the arguer committed a false analogy between the automobile industry and airplane industry when referring to the part-time rotating strategy. Although the two has some same mechanism principles, automobiles are distinctly different from air planes. Automobile require more on the convenient while the air plane concern more on the safety. Take the require of sharp halt brake for example, which is not suitable for different people to make while this demand is entirely not exist in the airline industry, so the possibility that the part-time rotating strategy is not apt to the automobile at all is exist. Hence before more investigation is conducted, we should not make any conclusion just on assumption.

To sum up, the arguer ignores some important factors which would contribute to a correct decision but makes a hasty conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the arguer needs to provide more relevant evidences and conduct a more detailed and representative investigation.

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ruczephyr
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沙发

发表于 2007-4-15 10:15:55 |只看该作者

占座一会看下

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ruczephyr
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板凳

发表于 2007-4-15 16:47:40 |只看该作者

This argument concludes that in order to continue to thrive, our automobile manufacturing company need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible. To substantiate his conclusion, the arguer cites that the marketing projections indicate that the number of automobiles people wanted to buy is much more than the production of our exist plant. In addition, the arguer suggest that the new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, which was proved successful by a major airplane manufacturer five years ago. Although this argument appeared convince convincing on the first glance, a through thorough scrutiny reveal单数形式 that it suffer还是单数 from several critical logical fallacies.

As the threshold matter, does the market is really that large as the arguer claims and has beyond production of the exist plant? It is an open question to doubt. The marketing projections’ indication that 80 million people would want to buy our automobiles is true or not? Firstly, is the marketing projection authority enough to indicate the prospect of the our automobile plant?Secondly, if there are really 80 million people who want to buy our automobiles, whether they really buy or not? it still remain questionable. Maybe majority of them just like the automobile but they don’t afford it or they didn’t in possession of a garage for automobile keeping, which will result in their not buying our automobiles. Even if there are 80 million order on the desk, it can be deal with producing in batches and one batch at a time. Thus, there are lacking evidence to conclude that we really should open a new plant.我觉得应该自己提出一个问题然后回答一个比较好。。这样问题都提出来最后解答容易混乱

In addition, open a new plant is a huge project that we should consider it carefully. A corporation should take every detain into account before it determine单数问题 to open a new plant. If the increasing market share is now beyond the production of our exist plant, should we open a new one doubtlessly? Imaging that, local recently weather is bad and extremely cold , people would rather to get out by car rather than by other vehicles, which fact boost the market share of automobile is sharply increase. But when the weather get warm and sunny, people are willing to walk or get out by bike to contact the spring time, the market share of automobile will decline dramatically, if the new plant is complete that time, it will remain unused. The waste of money and energy to build it is totally in vain. To conclude, does the increase continue? It is critical mattered.这个错误有点牵强，不是很明显的

Furthermore, the arguer committed a false analogy between the automobile industry and airplane industry when referring to the part-time rotating strategy. Although the two has some same mechanism principles, automobiles are distinctly different from air planes. Automobile require more on the convenient while the air plane concern more on the safety. Take the require of sharp halt brake for example, which is not suitable for different people to make while this demand is entirely not exist in the airline industry,这一部分和part-time strategy不是太有关系啊，论证的就不有力了 so the possibility that the part-time rotating strategy is not apt to the automobile at all is exist. Hence before more investigation is conducted, we should not make any conclusion just on assumption.

To sum up, the arguer ignores some important factors which would contribute to a correct decision but makes a hasty conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the arguer needs to provide more relevant evidences and conduct a more detailed and representative investigation.

感觉逻辑错误找的不是太准确，而且论证没有攻击到错误最薄弱的地方啊，看题的时候仔细思考一下，攻击到最脆弱的地方一句话也许就能点题了

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nianliu413100
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地板

发表于 2007-4-15 19:31:14 |只看该作者

argument226 ,第一次作业，拍我，拍我：）
首先表示抱歉, 上课去了,真对不起了.
以下是我改的.
This argument concludes that in order to continue to thrive, our automobile manufacturing company need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible. To substantiate his conclusion, the arguer cites that the marketing projections indicate that the number of automobiles people wanted to buy is much more than the production of our exist plant. In addition, the arguer suggest that the new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, which was proved successful by a major airplane manufacturer five years ago. Although this argument appeared convince on the first glance, a through scrutiny reveal that it suffer from several critical logical fallacies.
As the threshold matter, does the market is really that large as the arguer claims and has beyond production of the exist plant? It is an open question to doubt. The marketing projections’ indication that 80 million people would want to buy our automobiles is true or not? Firstly, is the marketing projection authority enough to indicate the prospect of our automobile plant? Secondly, if there are really 80 million people who want to buy our automobiles, whether they really buy or not? It still remains questionable. Maybe majority of them just like the automobile but they don’t afford it or they didn’t in possession of a garage for automobile keeping, which will result in their not buying our automobiles. Even if there are 80 million orders on the desk, it can be deal with producing in batches and one batch at a time. Thus, there is lacking evidence to conclude that we really should open a new plant.

In addition, open a new plant is a huge project that we should consider it carefully. A corporation should take every detain ( 语法有？)into account before it determine to open a new plant. If the increasing market share is now beyond the production of our exist plant( 语法有？生产能力的表示?), should we open a new one doubtlessly?(这里我看不懂,是我们要毫无疑问的开一家的意思吗?) Imaging that, local recently weather is bad and extremely cold , people would rather to get out by car rather than by other vehicles, which fact boost the market share of automobile is sharply increase. But when the weather get warm and sunny, people are willing to walk or get out by bike to contact the spring time, the market share of automobile will decline dramatically, if the new plant is complete that time, it will remain unused. The waste of money and energy to build it is totally in vain. To conclude, does the increase continue? It is critical mattered.(我觉得这一段写得有问提,)
Furthermore, the arguer committed a false analogy between the automobile industry and airplane industry when referring to the part-time rotating strategy. Although the two has some same mechanism principles, automobiles are distinctly different from air planes. Automobile require more on the convenient while the air plane concern more on the safety. Take the require of sharp halt brake for example, which is not suitable for different people to make while this demand is entirely not exist in the airline industry, so the possibility that the part-time rotating strategy is not apt to the automobile at all is exist. Hence before more investigation is conducted, we should not make any conclusion just on assumption.

To sum up, the arguer ignores some important factors which would contribute to a correct decision but makes a hasty conclusion（but 表达的是后面的which 会导致hasty conclusion.）. To strengthen the argument, the arguer needs to provide more relevant evidences and conduct a more detailed and representative investigation.

[ 本帖最后由 nianliu413100 于 2007-4-15 19:35 编辑 ]

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