[a习作temp] argument45 [0710G-突击先锋小组]第十五次作业 [复制链接]

mellon_l
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发表于 2007-8-6 18:30:23 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 406(445) TIME: 00:30:00(+) DATE: 2007-8-6 18:23:28

In the above argument, it is concluded that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea on the assumption that the deer population are declining while the global warming occurs. In addition, the arguer cites that the ice melting will prevent deer from migrate from islands to island. It seems to be convincing at the first glance, while further scrutiny reveals that this argument suffers from lacking of evidence and some logical flaws.

To begin with, the credibility of hunters' report is open to doubt. Hunters claim that the population of deer are declining because they see fewer deer than before with their eyes, rather than doing scientific research. However, they could not wait outside and keep their eyes on the whole region during 24 hours, not to mention acting like this for a long period. It is highly possible that because of long time being chased and hunted by human, deer try their best from being discovered from people and chose to show themselves at night when people are falling asleep.

Second, the global warming will not automatically lead to ice melting in arctic region. Perhaps though the average temperature of the whole Earth is rising, the local temperature nearly remains the same. Or the temperature also increase, but it is still cold enough to freeze the thick ice. Therefore, deer still could move from place to place on crossing the ice.

Furthermore, supposing we acknowledge the above two points are alright as the arguer declares, it is too harsh to draw the conclusion that it is the decreasing of deer is because they could not follow their migration patterns. Animals are strong to adapt to the change of nature, which make them perpetuate their races better and longer. So when the natural condition begins to change in this area, deer also adjust their life pattern and gradually get used to this change. At the same time, some other unknown factors contribute the death of some deer. For example, a new species which take deer as their food appear in this region. Their hunting makes the total population decrease. It is also possible that the certain disease which could kill deer spreads among them.

To sum up, this argument is well presented, but not well reasoned because lacking of sufficient detailed evidence and several logical fallacies. To justify it, the arguer needs to provide more thorough information about the hunters' report and the result of global warming in this region. In addition, the arguer has to think of some other alternatives which may lead to declining of deer population.