[a习作temp] 【第一篇ARGU】新ARGU第四题求拍！！！ [复制链接]

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发表于 2011-9-2 17:37:39 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

The author argues that as a real estate firm, Adams Realty is superior to Fitch Realty based on the evidences: first, Adams has more real estate agents than Fitch; second, Adams' revenue last year was twice as much as that of Fitch with a higher average price; third, the time that it took the author to sell a house listed with Adams last year is much shorter than the time it took to sell a house listed with Fitch in ten years ago. However, the author commits several fallasies, which render this argument unconvincing.

First of all, the author fails to prove his assumption that the quality of a real estate firm is proportional to the quantity of its agents and the length of their working time. There is a good chance that the reason why Fitch has less agents is that the agents in Fitch are much more effective than those in Adams, which weakens the argument that Adams is better than Fitch, and as a result, there is no need for Fitch to hire so many agents. What is more, the argument fails to give a complete comparision betweem the two firms by only showing the number of part-time agents in Fitch without showing the corresponding number in Adams.

Moreover, the evidence that Adams' revenue last year was twice as much as that of Fitch accomplishes little towards supporting the argument. Perhaps, the government decided to build a significant shopping center near last year, which was near the homes sold by Adams. As a result, more homes were sold last year because of the superb location, which has little to do with the effectiveness of Adams. Maybe the revenue of Adams will decrease next year without the help of the big government project. Only with a reliable comparision about the revenues of the two firms in a long time, can the author decide which firm has a better revenue achievement.

And the evidence taht the average home price of Adams is higher than that of Fitch only indicates that the average value of the homes sold by Adams is higher than that of Fitch. There is no certain relationship between the value of the homes and the quality of a real estate firm. Therefore, the evidence cannot support the argument effectively.

Finally, there may be alternative explanations why the time it took for the author to sell house listed with Adams last year much more shorter than that listed with Fitch ten years ago. Possibly, the main explanation is that the economic evironment was much better than that ten years ago and the people were much more likely to buy a house. Possibly, the development of a city contributed to the larger and larger population, which made the number of house buyer last year much more than ten years ago. Unless the author take into accounts all the possible factors that lead to a shorter time of selling house, the assumption that Adams is effective than Fitch is unwarranted.

Maybe the Adams is better than Fitch in some aspects.But the author fails to give reliable evidences to support the argument and this argument is unpersuasive with several flaws mentioned above.

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