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发表于 2010-10-6 21:45:29 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Argument 6
The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

This application draws a conclusion that a jazz music club would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. To substance this conclusion, the application points out that there is no jazz club in Monroe. Besides, it cites different evidences to demonstrate that jazz is extremely in Monroe. At first glance, the argument seems convincing, but the evidences lead little support to the applicant's assertion after careful examination.

In the first place, the author cites the evidence which is to support that jazz is popular in Monroe is unconvincing. Over 100000 people attended the jazz festival does not mean that the local market is brisk, and it is possible that the majority of festival attendees are out-of-town visitors and some people attended the festival just for fun. In addition, the well-known jazz musicians living in Monroe cannot support the assertion, perhaps the living condition in Monroe is perfect so that the musicians are willing to live in here. Moreover, if the demand for a jazz club were great, it seems that Monroe would already have many clubs. Just as the author saying, the fact that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away may suggest that Monroe residents are lack of interest in jazz. In the end, even if the musical market is brisk last year, it cannot promise that it keep the same tendency in the following years since people may prefer country music or other kinds of music to jazz.

Even though jazz is popular in Monroe, the author provides no evidence that people who like jazz would attend jazz club. There are many ways to enjoy jazz, such as listen to the CD or the radio at home. The author tells that the highest-rated radio program is 'Jazz Night'. For that matter, the radio program might go into the competition with the C note club. So the $1000 spent by the jazz fans might contain the fees spent in the jazz club.

Given that the jazz fans will attend the jazz club, it is unlikely that the C note can make a profit. Whether the club is profitable relates to the local marketable condition and the management of the club. The author provides little information of the manager and the schedule of development, and it is unadvisable to draw the conclusion that C Note would be a profitable enterprise.

Finally, the national study that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1000 per year on jazz would lend support to the author's assertion only if Monroe residents can represent the national residents.

To sum up, the author's argument is not persuasive. They should focus on the management of the club to make sure that it is profitable. Besides, they should provide a further survey of the reasons that they attend the jazz club and the real money they spend on the jazz club.