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本帖最后由 ee_stone 于 2015-1-26 12:14 编辑
The following appeared in a health magazine.
"The citizens of Forsythe have adopted more healthful lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the most healthy citizens regularly eat."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
------------------------- 题目分割线
In the magazine, based on the survey results on eating habits and the sales data of "good" and "bad" food, citizens are thought to have adopted more healthful lifestyles. However, there are some other key evidence we need to investigate so that we can be more convinced or suspicious of the argument, such as the details of the survey, the characters of kiran, sulia and related food mentioned.
First evidence to investigate is the details of the survey on eating habits, which are missing in the letter but can determine the credibility of the results. For example, how the sample population is distributed on ages, genders, and educational levels can have great impact on the survey results. Generally, females and old people are more sensitive to the health information and more active in applying the governmental guidance. And educated people are surely more exposed to the public media and have more chances to learn the recommendations. If the percentage of aged and more educated people in the recent survey is higher than 10 years before, the results can naturally be better and may not reveal the actual improvement of lifestyles.
Besides, the characters of kiran and related food sales should be evaluated. It is mentioned that a study shows kiran can help to reduce cholesterol. But how much should be taken by a man to trigger the effect? Is this study supported by other studies? Are there any side effects? How much does the food products contain the substance? If the percentage of kiran in the food is so limited to take effect or the study is the only one to make the assertion, the rising sales of kiran containing food doesn't help to corroborate the argument. Also, the sales may grow due to the total population growth rather than the increased consumption by each people. Hence, the sales data should be studied in more details.
On the other hand, we need to evaluate the root cause why sulia is rarely eaten by healthy citizens and why the sales drop recently. To support the argument, it should be convincing that sulia is harmful to health. However, the drop of sales may be due to the shortage of supply, prohibiting prices or the unique smell and taste. Moreover, the previous sales may be mainly for export and the drop may be blamed on global competition or the embargo. If some of these reasons are validated, the argument will be greatly weakened.
In short, by evaluating more evidence above, we may find extra details to corroborate that the citizens are living a more healthful life. Or we may find alternative explanations of the data of the survey and sales, which will weaken the argument.
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