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发表于 2005-8-14 19:42:32 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Argument147
------题目------
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
'Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.'
------正文------
This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. Based on a survey mainly, the arguer conclude that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase on the condition that the company do intensive advertisements aimed at the group aged 10 to 25, who are mostly like to play the video games.

The arguer fails to supply any information about the subject of the survey. It is possibly that the subject are not mostly those aged 10 to 25. If so, the lifelike feature maybe is not the one this group prefer. Then the video game will necessarily be popular in the group. If it is the case, the intensive advertisements aimed to this group is hard to take effect to the sale of this kind of video game. Even if the result of survey is representative of the group aged 10 to 25, we also have the reason to doubt that whether the sales will increase because there is no survey or number supplied to prove that this group are most likely to play video games in this argument. Even we admit that this group prefer the lifelike feature and are most likely to play video games, the arguer also neglect that whether this group can afford to buy the video games. Common sense tells us that this group are mostly students with very little or even no salary. However, the video games require up-to-date computer. How many of them can buy?

In addition, the arguer fails to consider other alternatives to affect the sales of games. These alternatives include the current market of video game, the whole economy, the quality of the games, and so on. It is mentioned that the sales of Whirlwood video games have declined over the past two years. But what causes the decline? It is because of the quality? or the economy depression? If so, even if the company changes the feature of games, the sales still can not increase.

In sum, this argument lacks credibility to support its conclusion. To support his conclusion, the arguer would have to analyze the reason why the sales of the game decline over the past two years. To evaluate this argument better, we need the information on the subject of the survey.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-14 at 20:04 ]