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０７９The following appeared in a magazine for the trucking industry.
"The Longhaul trucking company was concerned that its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high. It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards. It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive. The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented. A survey of other trucking companies found that the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident. Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive."
Longhaul货运公司注意到其年度事故率（每驾驶一百英里所发生的事故数）过高。公司大幅提高了付给驾驶员的报酬，提高了其训练标准。公司还对每名驾驶员每周驾驶的时数提出了更严格的限定。在随后的一年里，该公司卡车所卷入的事故数是实行这些改变之前的一半。对于其他一些货运公司的调查发现，报酬最高的驾驶员是最不容易出车祸的驾驶员。因此，想要降低事故率的货运公司可以简单地通过提高驾驶员的报酬和限制他们驾驶的总时数来达到目的。
分析：
论据１：its annual accident rate (the number of accidents per mile driven) was too high
论据２：It granted a significant pay increase to its drivers and increased its training standards． It also put strict limits on the number of hours per week each driver could drive．
论据３：The following year, its trucks were involved in half the number of accidents as before the changes were implemented
论据４：the highest-paid drivers were the least likely to have had an accident
结论：Therefore, trucking companies wishing to reduce their accident rate can do so simply by raising their drivers' pay and limiting the overall number of hours they drive
分析：
１． 论据１２和３之间关系值得怀疑．是否是这些措施导致了事故减少？也许公司的出车减少？或者路况变好？或者其他的条件变好，比如买了好车？
２． 报酬最高的驾驶员是最不容易出车祸的驾驶员，并不意味着提高报酬就能减少事故，很可能是因为这些司机本身技术好，经验足才被给了高薪，他们当然不容易出事故。如果一些司机驾驶技术有问题，光提高收入毫无作用
３． 一个公司的情况是否和其他公司相同？限制驾驶总时间可能对技术差的司机没用，或者他们本身就工作在比较危险的区域？要考虑不同公司的特殊情况．还要考虑不同的公司承担的业务的不同和总体车况，不是所有的事故都是相同的！
０９４The following appeared in a memo from the president of Bower Builders, a company that constructs new homes.
"A nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen. Homes in a nearby development built by our competitor, Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs and have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average. To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes. Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards, we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards."
一项全国性调查发现人们最想拥有的两项家庭设施就是具备冲浪浴缸的浴室和大厨房。我们的竞争对手Domus Construction在附近开发的新住宅安装了冲浪浴缸，这些住宅的销售速度和售价显著高于平均水平。为增加我们的销售和利润，我们应该在所有新住宅中设置冲浪浴缸和大型厨房作为标准配置。由于我们的新客户没有提出对小型庭院的任何投诉，我们也可以通过减小庭院的尺寸来增加盈利。
分析：
论据１：nationwide survey reveals that the two most desired home features are a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen
论据２：Domus Construction, have whirlpool tubs
论据３：Domus Construction have sold much faster and at significantly higher prices than the average
论据４：Since our recent buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards
结论１：To increase our sales and profits, we should include whirlpool tubs and larger kitchens as standard features in all our new homes
结论２：we can also increase profits by decreasing the size of our yards
１．由于没有涉及到具体这两个公司坐落的位置，作者的论断过于草率．全国性的调查反映的是全国的总体趋势，但是对应这两个公司具体坐落的位置，情况可能会有所不同．可能DC坐落的位置人们对a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen非常感兴趣，或者说a bathroom with a whirlpool tub（浴盆） and a large kitchen
非常流行，但是BB公司坐落的地方情况可能正相反，那么就不能盲目的这么说了．
２．DC有have whirlpool tubs和他的房子销售速度和销售价格并不一定有直接的因果关系．可能其他的因素比如广告，公司的售后服务比较好，或者公司的房子有其他吸引人的创新设计，或者很环保等等都可能导致他的房子销售速度和销售价格比较好．
３．我们的buyers have voiced no complaints about small yards并不能意味着我们减少了庭院的面积就能得到收益，因为可能住户并不太满意但是由于房子已经买到，不太可能改变才不抱怨，如果减少了庭院的面积（作者没有提供以前的面积到底是大还是小），有可能会引起抱怨或者购买者减少．同时，recent buyers没有抱怨不意味我们的潜在的新买主也不会抱怨．
０９７The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。
分析：
论据１：A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television
论据２：After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled
结论：To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage
１．全国性的调查是否适合KICK的播放地区？男性？那么女性观众是否应该考虑呢？
２．在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍两者之间是否有必然联系，比如其他的原因，可能正逢重大赛事？可能该台来了著名的主持人或者其他的措施比如减少了广告．
３．KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目符合我们的特点吗？作者没有比较，也许我们的收视率增长的更多！
摘抄：
The author asserts that more sports programs should be put into the broadcast schedule of KICK for the sake of gaining a larger audience share in their area and consequently increasing their company profits.
Moreover, there is no causal relationship between audience sharing and increased profits, since there are many factors influencing the whole profits of a television station.
Also, the survey involves only men, but it might be true that much more women than men are KICK's audience, while the KICK pays no attention to them. Furthermore, the survey is nationwide, which means it might be not fit for KICK's very area. Any of these scenarios(details), if true, will serve to undermine the conclusion drawn from it.
Those who have taken part in the survey may be within a certain age range and sports related careers, and are therefore more interested in sports than ordinary people.
The primary problem with this argument is its assumption that the nationwide survey about the sports programs applies equally to the local area. the assumption is unwarranted and a variety of possible reasons may contribute to the differences between these two different scopes.
Consider, for example, besides adding more sports programs, WACK also takes action to increase the proportion of soap operas or news to cater to women or the old, which consequently/subsequently help to raise its share.
Moreover, perhaps, WACK has already had its majority of schedule, for instance 80%, filled with sports programs, and hence, it is useless and not feasible to adopt such a strategy.
０９９.The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
通过使用一种新研制的种子，我们临近国家Abundia的农在去年生产了比以往多80％的大米。为增加我们国家农的收入，我们应该鼓励他们培育这种新的大米品种，而不是那些他们的传统谷类作物。这种大米的高产量也将会使我国通过出口大米促进贸易平衡。
分析：
论据１：Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year.
结论１：To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops.
结论２：Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it.
分析：本题比较有特点
１．两个国家的作物种类，气候条件，地理，耕作水平不同！
２．我们的人民是否喜欢吃？（销路问题）
３．高产的大米是否会被拿来出口？我们是否有固定或者潜在的购买国家呢？或者临国已经占据了市场？
４．他们是否还同时采用了新的技术或是新的制度，这些都有可能提高产量，使得不能把成绩都给新种子。
摘抄：
It is possible that the yield of rice in Abundia is always very low, so even little increase will lead to the 80 percent more than previous year.
Only by export rice will not lead to the improvement of a country’s balance of trade.
As a matter of fact, in the modern world, the import and export of a country dose not only consist of crops such as rice. Machines, high-tech products, medical services and so on also contribute a large proportion to a country’s national trade.
There are some unconventional means which can dramatically increase the product of food, which also not gained the worldwide configuration because of its unknown influence of human healthy. Actually, there are more and more genetic modified food, saying as a better way to meet the need of people’s food demanding, available in local market, which is a new invention and means it did not have long-term testing system．
It is possible that the temperature, rain falls and other climatic factors are so different between the two countries that the new variety of rice may not be suitable to be cultivated in Paucia.
It is possible that even after adopting the new rice, the rice yield per acre in Abundia is less than that in Paucia with traditional rice. If that is the case, there is no need for farmers in Paucia to cultivate the new rice at all
It is entirely possible that new technology are applied, thus peasants can make more production with the same amount of efforts. Or, maybe important policy which benefits the agriculture is put into use, as a result the work of farmers have become more convenient and thus have higher efficiency.
The author completely neglects the different weather patterns, terrains, irrigations and the like of these two countries. Perhaps, most of districts of A is plain which is suitable for planting new seeds, while in P, such kind of terrain is very scant(缺少的).
It is probably that the traditional seeds are more suitable to meet the special conditions in P. Then the taste of citizens in P should also be taken into consideration, perhaps they prefer the traditional ones rather than the new ones
In addition, there is no evidence to prove that the rice can surely be exported, since it is highly probable that the same kind of seed has already been used in every other country.
Perhaps, the weather in Abundia is better than any previous year with plenty sunshine and rainfalls, so that rice grew well there. It is also possible that more land was developed to use for agriculture or farmers there brought in some automations or machinery which could highly improve the farming work
１０２The following appeared in a letter from the mayor of Tudor City.
"After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50 percent. In addition, as travel to Yorkville became easier, most respondents to a survey of the country's top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to transact business. To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is suitable for a regional flight hub."
在一家大航空公司选择了Yorkville作为他们的区域航线枢纽之后，该城市的生意数量几乎增加了一倍，地方税收增加了50％。而且，由于到Yorkville的交通更加便捷，一次对于全国高层经营者的调查的多数回应者把Yorkville作为他们进行商务谈判的理想场所。为保障Tudor City的有效交通并刺激我们的区域经济，我们应该建立一个类似Yorkville机场的，可以作为区域航线枢纽的新机场。
要点：（四月第一版）
１． 错误类比．两者情况不一定相同．
２． 调查的问题．不具随机性并且没有提供足够的数据．
３． 是否有更好的替代措施？
４． 是否是其他原因导致了生意和税收的增加？
分析（七月第二版）
论据１：After a major airline chose Yorkville as its regional flight hub, the number of businesses in that city almost doubled and local tax revenue increased by 50 percent
论据２：most respondents to a survey of the country's top executives identified Yorkville as a desirable place to transact business.
结论：To secure efficient transportation for Tudor City and stimulate our local economy, we should build a new airport, like the one in Yorkville, that is suitable for a regional flight hub.
分析：
１．时序性因果，论据一两个事件之间没有必然的联系！是否是因为市政府采取了新的措施？或者是正好是商业的旺季．
２．只针对商务高层的调查不具有普遍的适用性，而且他们进行商务谈判的理想场所和航空枢纽关系不大！
３．Tudor City情况怎样呢？是否是一个商业城市，我们的原有的航空线路是否饱和，我们条件是否允许？还有其他的措施吗？
１１９The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.
"Traffic problems here in Waymarsh are obviously reaching record levels. While just three months ago it would take me 15 minutes to get to work, it now takes closer to 25. Waymarsh should follow the example of our neighboring city Gearsville. Last year, Gearsville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work with coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Gearsville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and several friends who live in Gearsville tell me that their trip to work is quicker than it used to be. With the terrible traffic and high pollution in Waymarsh, we must implement a policy similar to Gearsville's."
Waymarsh的交通问题显然正在接近纪录。仅仅三个月前我上班路上需要15分钟，现在几乎需要25分钟。Waymarsh应该借鉴我们临近城市Gearsville的例子。去年，Gearsville实施了一项政策，奖励那些合伙搭车上下班的人以免费的汽油券。政策实施之后Gearsville的污染水平下降了，一些住在Gearsville的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前要快。鉴于Waymarsh严重的交通与污染问题，我们必须实施和Gearsville类似的政策。
要点：（四月第一版）
论断：我们必须采取和隔壁G城一样的政策。因为我们的污染和交通问题都非常严重。三个月前我上班花15分钟，现在差不多需要25分钟。G城实施政策用免费的油票鼓励人们共用车，政策实施后G城的污染一直在下降，而几个住在那儿的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前快了。 1.•不一定成立的前提，即我们的污染和交通问题很严重。首先论者没有提供有关我们的污染问题有哪些，情况怎样，我们无法知道他的说法是否正确。其次交于交通问题的恶化，仅凭他个人的经历不能说明整个城市的问题。因为三个月的时间还不足让整个城市的交通恶化到论者所描述的程度，也许是论者上班的道路上局部发生了一些变化，比如可能有施工等暂影响交通的因素。
2.•G城的措施能解决我们的问题。首先两个城市的必然存在的差异使得G城的经验不一定会适合我们，比如居民密度，车辆拥有量等。如果G城居民密度大，彼此之间距离近，而我们居民之间住得远，就使得共用车无法实行。其次，用免费油票剌激居民共用车上班，有可能增加居民在其他方面多用车。
3.•G城解决得很好。首先论者没有为我们排除其它因素带来G城的污染下降的可能，比如G城关闭了污染严重的工厂等，这使得我们无法确信是共用车制度使汽车污染下降。其次关于交通问题，论者用的几个朋友的表述也不足信，因为各别人的经历同样无法代表整个城市的变化。
结论：论者的推论考虑不周全，仅凭个人感觉就作出武断的推论。提出的建议也不值得采纳。
１２５.The following is a recommendation from the president of Appleby College.
"Whereas Appleby College holds class reunions every five years, Edelston College holds annual reunions for all classes, during which Edelston's alumni are treated to banquets, lectures, and student performances, enhancing their loyalty to the college and their willingness to donate money. Edelston College receives most of its alumni donations during or shortly after these reunions. Therefore, the best way for Appleby to increase its alumni donations is to offer similar reunion activities and to have each graduating class hold annual reunions."
Appleby学院每五年举行一次班级同学聚会，而Edelston学院的所有班级每年举行聚会，并且在聚会上Edelston的校友可以参加宴会、讲座和学生表演，这提高了他们对学校的感情以及他们给母校捐款的愿望。Edelston学院的大部分校友捐款是在聚会期间或之后很短时间内获得的。因此，Appleby增加校友捐款的最好途径就是组织类似的聚会活动，并且让每个毕业班级组织一年一度的聚会。
要点：
论断：提高A校校友捐献的最好办法就是提供和E校一样的校友聚会活动，并让每个毕业班每年都举行聚会。因为A校每五年举行一次班集聚会，而E校每年都有。在聚会上E校校友被宴请，讲座还有学生表演，这提高了他们对大学的忠实度，使得他们愿意捐钱。E校在这些聚会中或聚会后都会收到大多数校友的捐赠。 论者的结论完全从A与E的比较中得出，但是它的比较却忽略了很多问题。
1. A校校友的捐赠是否就比E少，论者没有提供具体两校收到的校友捐赠数额，我们无法肯定A校一定少于E校。虽然E校每年聚会后都会收到校友的捐赠，但是次数多不一定金额就会多。有可能A校校友捐赠的次数少，但每笔都是大数呀。 •A校校友是否还能捐出更多的钱来。论者没有提供有关两校学生毕业后的经济状况，有可能E校是商学院，出来的校友经商赚钱多，而A校培养的都是文化人，属清贫一族。
2. •是否举行聚会A校校友一定能参加。如果A校学生毕业后很分散，五年聚一次已经不容易了，那么每年一次就更不能保证。所以如果没人能来参加，举行也没有用。
3. 要校友捐钱不就为了让学校腰包鼓起来嘛，如果E校每年搞的聚会花销比校友捐的钱还多，这种为了拿捐钱的聚会还不如不搞。
4. 捐赠在聚会后得到并意味着捐赠是聚会的作用。 时序性因果错误。
结论：论者没有考虑到两校的差别，进行的比较很荒谬。而且为了让校友捐钱而搞聚会只能破坏校友对学校的忠实，从而可能影响学校的声誉。这样的建议要不得呀。
补遗：
１．或者校友来参加只是吃吃喝喝，每年一次 ，是啊，要捐的不来也捐．或者说校友来参加，只记得同学之间的美好时光，完全没有把学校和捐赠记在心里
２．聚会花的多 捐的少 那不血本无归
３．五年加起来的数目都没有E一年得多 |
|
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发表于 2006-7-27 17:30:40
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发表于 2006-7-27 17:47:52
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