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bingmou
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电梯直达

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发表于 2009-2-28 12:01:55 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

Argument 88
The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria.

"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."

搜了一下以前的文章，发现都是和我的想法不太一样，心里不太有底。想知道自己这样批判是否合理，如果不合理就不用了。求大牛指教！下面是提纲：

1. the key point is the understanding with the term "optimal" in the Sauria's leading nutritional experts. As we know , when experts use this term, generally they mean that compared to those who don't have a diet high in complex carbohydrates and low in fat(diet of H&L), those who have such a diet are more possible to have a good health and longvity. Both of them should be similar at most other aspects.
2. For this reason, all data from the author are unconvincing since there are no control samples for all the data.
2.1 It is not sure that the ancient people in the Sauria who have the diet of H&L would have good health and lonvity since the experts haven't made such a promise because the condition of ancient people are perhaps greatly different from the that of mordern people. They have so little similarity that no comparision should be taken between them.
2.2 Furthermore, the ruling classes hardly represent all the people in ancient Sauria since the condition of ruling classes generally differs with that of normal residents. Even if they are representative, since no control sample of the ruling classes are offered, the conclusion is still unconvincing. Perhaps those ancient ruling people in Sauria who don't have the diet of H&L have more medical problems than those who have the diet of H&L. If so, the conclusion that the experts are wrong are controversial.
2.3 There is the same problem with the result of the morden experiment that the high incidence of lots of disease among those who have the diet of H&L. There is no evidence that the situation of others who don't have the diet of H&L is not worse than the people with the diet of H&L. Perhaps in Sauria the rate of those disease always keeps at high level, therefore without control experiments the situation of the people with the diet of H&L can't be characterize as a failure.

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wuziqing1498
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沙发

发表于 2009-2-28 14:21:20 |只看该作者

占个座，待会贴我的看法，不过我也不是牛人，望牛人来

【2025FALL】全站祈福已开放~~来领祈福章，求offer得offer

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irvine666
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板凳

发表于 2009-2-28 14:47:23 |只看该作者

"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."

驳论型的驳论文...最麻烦的一种了，老规矩先画逻辑链：
木乃伊的病(已给) --> 这些病的原因是饮食（推论1）+ 古代人的饮食都是xxx食物(无根据假设1) + 木乃伊可以代表所有的古代人（无根据假设2） + 今天尝试了xxx食物的人的高发病率（已给）+ 除了饮食没有其他原因导致高发病率（无根据假设3） --> 结论

按照上面的批3个无根据假设就行，注意都是并列关系。当然要批箭头也可以，不过相对比较麻烦

平生太湖上，短棹几经过，于今重到何事？愁比水云多。拟把匣中长剑，换取扁舟一叶，归去老渔蓑。银艾非吾事，丘壑已蹉跎。
脍新鲈，斟美酒，起悲歌：太平生长，岂谓今日识干戈！欲泻三江雪浪，净洗胡尘千里，无为挽天河。回首望霄汉，双泪坠清波。

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wuziqing1498
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地板

发表于 2009-2-28 15:01:40 |只看该作者

"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal 最理想的for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."
我的反对观点提纲：
1，关于这个diet 的真正作用。是否不能，将导致什么。A对于历史与现在，I古代与200年前的关系II吃与病的必然关系，III，特别是高层阶级
2，试与病的先后因果关系。
3，真正的应该是这样的：选的人，对照组，时间等。（这点不好，换掉，（从你的得到启发：有时可以从某个极端的词，或修饰语出发：）作者没有证明它不行，提出别的更好的方法。
但论据为我们服务。
1. the key point is the understanding with the term "optimal" in the Sauria's leading nutritional experts. As we know , when experts use this term, generally they mean that compared to those who don't have a diet high in complex carbohydrates and low in fat(diet of H&L), those who have such a diet are more possible to have a good health and longvity. Both of them should be similar at most other aspects.（这个你出发点很好：批判前提，但这也只是一种可能性。你要注意避免写成I的嫌疑。
2. For this reason, all data from the author are unconvincing since there are no control samples for all the data.
2.1 It is not sure that the ancient people in the Sauria who have the diet of H&L would have good health and lonvity since the experts haven't made such a promise because the condition of ancient people are perhaps greatly different from the that of mordern people. They have so little similarity that no comparision should be taken between them.
2.2 Furthermore, the ruling classes hardly represent all the people in ancient Sauria since the condition of ruling classes generally differs with that of normal residents. Even if they are representative, since no control sample of the ruling classes are offered, the conclusion is still unconvincing. Perhaps those ancient ruling people in Sauria who don't have the diet of H&L have more medical problems than those who have the diet of H&L. If so, the conclusion that the experts are wrong are controversial.
2.3 There is the same problem with the result of the morden experiment that the high incidence of lots of disease among those who have the diet of H&L. There is no evidence that the situation of others who don't have the diet of H&L is not worse than the people with the diet of H&L. Perhaps in Sauria the rate of those disease always keeps at high level, therefore without control experiments the situation of the people with the diet of H&L can't be characterize as a failure.你不觉得这三点都可归结为调查的人无代表性吗？
不过整体没有什么大错我觉得。

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bingmou
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5楼

发表于 2009-2-28 16:00:25 |只看该作者

感谢ls的回帖。我也是认为后面三点都是没有对照组的问题，所以在框架都是2.1 2.2 2.3和1是因果关系。
这里我的主要论证很特殊，基本就是认为原作者没有理解好experts的准确说法，从而后提出的所有证据都是没有根据的，在论证形式上不正确。其他的都是小错误，所以我就认为只要批判了这一点，其他甚至都可以不批了。于是就夹杂在着三段中批判这些小错误。
而对于1这个，主要是想利用常识，就是A是最有利的，肯定是比较而来的才能说最有利——现在就是担心这个是不是可行？

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6楼

发表于 2009-2-28 16:06:10 |只看该作者

3# irvine666

“驳论型的驳论文...最麻烦的一种了，老规矩先画逻辑链：
木乃伊的病(已给) --> 这些病的原因是饮食（推论1）+古代人的饮食都是xxx食物(无根据假设1) + 木乃伊可以代表所有的古代人（无根据假设2） + 今天尝试了xxx食物的人的高发病率（已给）+除了饮食没有其他原因导致高发病率（无根据假设3） --> 结论
”其中的古代人的饮食都是XXX十五不能是无根据假设吧，只能作为一个基本共识，就和木乃伊的病一样。
我的主要观点是作者没有给出对照组，所以所有的数据“木乃伊的病”，“现代人的病”都是不可靠的；同时ruling classes不能代表古代人。

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