[a习作temp] 第一篇：ARGUE 53，指点啊。。。呵呵 [复制链接]

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发表于 2010-3-7 15:13:12 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览

53. （生命科学/科学假说/并列）Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants(1) who showed signs of mild distress(4) when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn(2), a time when their mothers' production of melatonin(3)—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy(5). Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness(4) during infancy and this shyness continues into later life(6)

In this argument, the author advocates that the increased levels of melatonin before birth result in shyness during the infancy and this shyness would continues into later life. To justify this claim, this argument is based on one study of a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli. In addition, the author points out that these infants had more possibility to conceive in early autumn. What’s more, he also indicates that most of these children identified themselves shy after thirteen years ago. On the first glance, this argument appears to be convincing, but further reflection reveals that this very conventional wisdom, of course, seems how groundless it is for several logic flaws.

//作者的实验样本太少，不能说明general情况；另外，作者并没有显式的指出distress是shy的结果//
The threshold problem with this argument is that the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Since the study involves only 25 infants, it is unconvincing to draw any conclusion about that the general infants who exposed to unfamiliar stimuli show signs of mild distress. In other words, the same response of those 25 infants is not necessarily typical representative the responses of all the infants under such circumstance. Additionally, the author does not explicitly offer the evidence that support the distress is the result of shyness. It is entirely possible that it was nerves but not distress that those children expressed when exposed in a situation whit an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. Consequently, in face of such limited evidence, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all.

//即使distress是shy的结果。作者也不能说shyness 和the production melatonin 是有因果关系的。因为作者并没有提供足够的信息来说明这种hormone对shy的影响。另外，shy可能是由于环境引起的。//
In the second place, Even if it is shyness that cause the distress, it is ill-conceived for author to suppose that the shyness has to do with the production of melatonin. To begin with, author has not provided sufficient information about the effects of this kind hormone on shyness, while only points out the fact that it can affect some brain functions. As for the influence on infants’ shyness of this hormone, the author didn’t furnish concrete information explicitly. In addition, when it comes to supporting this relationship, the author ignored other factors, such as the influence of living conditions of those 25 infants. Accordingly, until the author offers further evidence to exclude all the concerns, it is unfounded to reach the conclusion involved in the arguments.

//论断的结论很武断。论断某素的高含量致的婴儿害羞，会在后面的生活中延续。但显然性格的形成有很多原因，后天的环境与经历也非常重要。//
In the third place, even if I were to concede that shyness is the result of the increased levels of melatonin, it is presumptuous for author to further indicate that the shyness would be kept in the later lives of those children, especially considering that the author provides no evidence to illustrate this argument. As we all known, there are an enormous number of fundamental factors which greatly affect the development and changes of characters including shyness, such as the parents, friends, and even natural environment. Additionally, the author didn’t offer any information that this melatonin definitely can keep the continuality of shyness. From the above analysis, this assumption in question is open to doubt.

Consequently, in the absence of all the information, it is impossible for us to evaluate the conclusion. To make the whole argument more convincing, the arguer would have to make more wide survey, and provide more information that the increased levels of melatonin certainly lead to the appearance of shyness. Additionally, the arguer should also give more telling evidence to demonstrate that shyness can continues into the later life under the effect of the melatonin.

argue, 指点

[a习作temp] 第一篇：ARGUE 53， 指点啊。。。 呵呵 [复制链接]

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[a习作temp] 第一篇：ARGUE 53，指点啊。。。呵呵 [复制链接]