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本帖最后由 hugesea 于 2010-1-19 14:08 编辑
Issue 125 The past is no predictor of the future.
The past is no predictor of the future. The reason is that we can hardly know about the past, and our attitude towards the future is often absurd.
The task to know the past is always given to people living at present, who are to different degrees separated from what is to be known: people who died and things that happened many years or centuries ago. This change in space and time causes the task to be physically unrealistic.
Well, we are told that we have many means for knowing about the past. Among these the most valued is history--works printed in concrete paper or recorded in tapes, carefully preserved in libraries. However, it is in history that we find the worst untruth about the past. A well known saying tells us why: History lies. Also well known is why and how history comes to possess the power to tell lies about the past. First, it is for people who have the greatest need to tell lies to write history-- the rich and powerful. Secondly, such people have the very means to lie: their power and money. Then you find what history really is: history is largely about these people, and history itself is a book of lies. And we never lack evidence for this evaluation of history. The most convenient evidence is that there are always different versions of the same part of history,which indicate that either all of them are lying,or part some of them are.
Also, people living at this moment, who are responsible for telling the future, are to blame. Their trouble is that virtually every of them are interest-blind. And it is out of this blindness that all of us are trying to know about the past. Then it is only too natural that we will have vastly different pictures about the past even if we have referred to the same version of history. Well, what is the matter with us? The answer: Prejudice is. First we are prejudiced about ourselves. Then we are prejudiced about our ancestors. And, consequently, our knowledge about the past is full of prejudice-- a concrete from falsehood.
Ignorant and prejudiced about that past, it is only too natural that our attitude towards the future is not reasonable. And, this time it is the human nature that is the matter: it is human for every one to believe that the future will be on his side, and on the side of his side. Accordingly, we hear these every day: my future is bright,the future of my family is bright, and the future of my political party, of my nation, of this side of the world-- they are all bright. On the other hand, the future of other people, of other nations, of the other side of the world, will be dark. Finally, when every one proves wrong about the future, you hear this lovely excuse: It is humane to err. In short, whenever we think of the future, our reason will be going to dogs, and pure imagination takes its place.
For all these reason, either we can hardly know about the past, or our knowledge about it is just a dirty mixture of untruth and imagination. So ignorant about the past, and so absurd about the future, we can never tell the latter in advance. Indeed, the past is never the predictor of the future. |
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