Argument21 提纲

Luise8891UID: 2906459

You are not alone 小组 提纲作业Argument 21

21The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."

Luise8891UID: 2906459

1)the arguer fails to convince us that the alpaca coat would sell well by his assumption that there would be more customer demand and the fact that there are no major competitors which manufactures the alpaca coats.first,the fashion is ever changing, no evidence has been given to prove that five years later the coat is still popular in the market.Secondly,the arguer fails to analyze the reason why their major competitors stope to offer this kind of coat.It’s highly likely that they did not see any profits to continue production.
2)even if the demand of alpaca coat does increase ,there is no guarantee that people would pay higher prices for alpaca coats.There are all kinds of new coats in the market, it is doubtful that people would spend so much money on this deluxe coats rather than the cheaper new coat or more fashionable coars with the same price.
3)Even if the demand of alpaca coat increase and also customers would be willing to pay a much higher price for the coat, the assumption that the company’s profits will increase is still open to doubt.First, no information about the new fabric supplier has been provided.Whether the quality of the wool fabric they provide is high or not?What about the price of the material?If its quality is not high enough,then it’s quite dangerous to use it to make coats which probably no one would buy.Or the quality is fine but the price is to high ,which makes a coat cost too much to manufacture and probably not profitable.

dreamerdanceUID: 2759402

1.新的供应商是否能够供应好的毛料，也没有说这个原材料的成本是多少，有可能成本很高，使得这种衣服的造价很高，价格很贵，并不被消费者接受。
2. 即使新的供应商值得信赖，作者认为他和他们的同行已经5年没有推出这个衣服了，认为衣服一旦上市，会满足消费者的需要。论者既没说五年前这种服装的市场如何，也没有数据显示消费者目前很需要这款衣服，即便是这款衣服可以满足消费者的需要，应做深入的市场调查，为什么主要对手不做了。有没有可能正是因为这种服装已不受人欢迎，所以他们才停止生产的，或者出现了新的竞争对手导致垄断。没有给出具体的数据来说明其它厂家没有在做这个衣服，有可能这5年其它厂家也在做这个衣服，而且占领了一定的市场，所以现在推出这个衣服不见得可以受到消费者的欢迎。
3．即便仍有市场，多种服装上涨不说明羊毛外衣也上涨，即使羊毛外衣上涨，很有可能消费者并不喜欢这种衣服，并不能保证人们愿意出比五年前高的价格，甚至是相同的价格来购买同五年前一样的衣服，即使价格很贵，但是盈利仍然不客观。
4．另外公司退出这个市场五年，其中变化论者没有考虑进去，市场对公司的品牌陌生了，广告要重新做，公司对市场陌生了，调查和分销点要重新来，这些都会影响公司是否赢利。论断没有考虑其他因素而武断地得出结论，很有可能将公司带入财政赤字。
5. 总结：作者需要提供目前市场上这种衣服的销量和消费者的喜爱程度，以及衣服的成本。
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