527 第一篇argument，求指导

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新G 38题羊毛外衣那道题
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of
Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable
supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our
deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we
should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have
not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major
competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up
customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has
risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay
significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years
ago, and our company profits will increase."


作文：
While it may be true that vice president's prediction of the increase of their company will come true, the author's argument does not make a cogent one. At first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, however, further reflection reveals that it omits some substantial evidence that should be addressed to substantiate the argument.



Citing that the discontinuing production of alpaca overcoat is due to a lack of reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, the author points out that they should resume production because that they have a new fabric supplier.
It is not clear, however, whether the new supplier provides with wool fabric of high quality.



Building on the fact that since they have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and that their major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, the author claims that there will be pent-up customer
demand. The assumption is unwarranted because things rarely remain the same over extended periods of time. It is likely that the alpaca overcoat is no longer the style people like or that they do not buy clothes made from animal furs as a protection of wild animals. Besides, chances are that the competitor stop producing the overcoat just because the depressed selling in the market. So without a normed survey about the current market conditions and the taste of consumers, the author hastily claims that the increase of customer demand is enormous. Regardless of whether the overcoat will be in great demand,the author does not show a effectively connection between
the customer's willing to pay significantly higher prices and the price increase of most types of clothing.
   
In
the third place, the author fails to provide information about the cost of the new wool fabric. Perhaps, the cost has increased greatly, whereas the selling price remains the same or even drops. So the conclusion that the company profit will increase is completely unwarranted.


To sum up, the arguer fails to substantiate its claim that the profit will increase , because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to carry out a research among the consumers.