Argument208 G-89-互助社-8月8日同主题写作 请拍thanx

augustinehitUID: 182871

Argument208  第5篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
------摘要------
作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：26分8秒     372 words
从2005年7月8日21时26分到2005年7月8日21时26分
------题目------
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
'Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary.'
------正文------
The author of this memo concludes that it is not necessary to construct any new generating plants in this region. To bolster this conclusion, the author cites a survey indicating that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy with the introduction of newly energy-efficient electrical appliances. Moreover, the new technology for home insulation and passive solar heating are available, and the present three electric generating plants have met their needs. But after a close analysis of this argument, it is not difficult to find that this rhetoric is infested with some crucial drawbacks.

To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the survey is statistically reliable. In order to make a precise prediction, the survey's sample must be sufficient in size and statistically representative of the overall population. Lacking such evidence, the author cannot justifiably rely on this survey to make any conclusion whatsoever.

Furthermore, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that the homeowners will take advantage of these new technologies as the author describes. Admittedly, the memo implied that the homeowners are eager to conserve energy. But it does not indicate that they can afford to these energy-efficient appliances. Even assuming that they are affordable, no one can guarantee that they will buy the home appliances, let alone the conclusion that the energy will be saved.

Finally, one of the most dubious drawbacks that cast serious doubt on the conclusion is that the author fails to consider many other potentially contributing factors. An influx of residents will augment the electric needs greatly; or the business and commercial electric usage will boost the electric need also. Moreover, it is highly possible that the three electric generating plants will be expired recently because of their usage, or some newly energy-efficient techniques are practical for the reconstruction of the three plants. Any of these scenarios, if true, would definitely undermine the reliability of the author's conclusion

In summary, the author's conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better evaluate the prediction, more reliable and exhaustive information of the survey is necessary. Moreover, whether the homeowners will purchase and install the appliances should be investigated. To strengthen the conclusion, the status quo of three plants is urgent for the author.

polymathUID: 179557

帮你顶!实在忙不过来！:L

remlusUID: 203482

he following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
'Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary.'
------正文------
The author of this memo concludes that it is not necessary to construct any new generating plants in this region. To bolster this conclusion, the author cites a survey indicating that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy with the introduction of newly energy-efficient electrical appliances. Moreover, the new technology for home insulation and passive solar heating are available, and the present three electric generating plants have met their needs. But after a close analysis of this argument, it is not difficult to find that this rhetoric(我不知道这个词用法对不对) is infested with some crucial drawbacks.
（开宗明义）
To begin with, the author provides no evidence that the survey is statistically reliable. In order to make a precise prediction, the survey's sample must be sufficient in size and statistically representative of the overall population. Lacking such evidence, the author cannot justifiably rely on this survey to make any conclusion whatsoever.
（第一段，攻击调查，样本容量不够，没有代表性，我觉得原文对于调查讲得很少，这种攻击有点想找碴，当然可以还是可以的））
Furthermore, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that the homeowners will take advantage of these new technologies as the author describes. Admittedly, the memo implied that the homeowners are eager to conserve energy. But it does not indicate that they can afford to these energy-efficient appliances. Even assuming that they are affordable, no one can guarantee that they will buy the home appliances, let alone the conclusion that the energy will be saved. （let alone用得蛮好）
（第二段，攻击论据，想用不一定能用，觉得还可以展开多一点）
Finally, one of the most dubious drawbacks that cast serious doubt on the conclusion is that the author fails to consider many other potentially contributing factors. An influx of residents will augment the electric needs greatly; or the business and commercial electric usage will boost the electric need also. Moreover, it is highly possible that the three electric generating plants will be expired recently because of their usage, or some newly energy-efficient techniques are practical for the reconstruction of the three plants. Any of these scenarios, if true, would definitely undermine the reliability of the author's conclusion
（第三段 还有其他原因 语言不错）
In summary, the author's conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better evaluate the prediction, more reliable and exhaustive information of the survey is necessary. Moreover, whether the homeowners will purchase and install the appliances should be investigated. To strengthen the conclusion, the status quo of three plants is urgent for the author. （结论）

文字通顺 思路清晰 写得蛮好的 我的一些意见未必正确 嘻嘻

[ Last edited by remlus on 2005-9-3 at 21:58 ]