0606G同主题写作第十九期——Argument147

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题目

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

题目翻译

虽然Whirlwind游戏公司的销售业绩在过去两年均录得下降，一个最近对于游戏玩家的调查显示，这个趋势将会逆转。这个调查询问游戏玩家们他们最看重游戏中的哪个方面，玩家们表示，他们更喜欢提供了更真实的图像的游戏，而这样的游戏，需要使用最先进的电脑。而Whirlwind公司最近刚发行了几个这样类型的游戏，并且有着面对10到25岁这样最多人玩游戏的人群的强大的广告攻势。在这之后的几个月，Whirlwind公司的游戏的销售应该会相当大程度的增加。

结论

It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.

出现频率

从去年10G到今年，一共出现了68次，频率非常高。

题目分析

说实话，个人认为这道题可以说是千苍白孔的，题目中逻辑错误很多，下面提供一些重点。

1、Survey的整体问题，就是所谓的Sample Size和Selection Procedure的问题，我就不赘述了。

2、The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. 这句话的问题在于游戏者看重游戏的画质并不表示游戏者会选择画质比较好的游戏，或许有别的游戏者看重的方面。比如游戏性，剧情等等。

3、Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. 这句话隐含的前提就是有extensive advertising campaign和买游戏的人喜欢画质好的游戏，这种游戏就会令销量上升。这两个assumption都是有问题的。影响游戏销量的因素很多，大众的经济因素，游戏销售的价格等等，并不能由上面的两个因素就说这样的游戏销量好。

4、上面的那句话另外两个个隐含的前提是，10到25岁的人群玩游戏的人多表示这些人群玩这种画质比较好的游戏的人就会多，和多人喜欢玩这种游戏就会多人买这种游戏。这两个前提也是很明显有问题的。

[ 本帖最后由 yogurt4 于 2006-4-4 00:01 编辑 ]