Argument53 求拍 欢迎互改

manfred_huiUID: 2689901

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 405
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-8-28 22:13:50

自己改过一遍，以下是提纲，谢谢。
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OUTLINE

• 样本的人数太少
• 如何鉴定distress
• 一定是melatonin导致shyness吗？
• 十三年是一段很长的时间，有很多因素会使人的性格改变

The arguer asserts that high levels of melatonin before birth will cause long term shyness on the base of a study which involves 25 respondents most of whom were conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers would like to concrete more melatonin which is believed to affect brain functions. Though the argument seems to be well-designed, there are several logical fallacies which render it doubtable.

First of all, the result of study may not be statistically reliable due to the limited sample size since only 25 infants were involved. The smaller the size is the less convincible the results are. Maybe these infants were more sensible to the outside stimuli than those in average. If the arguer can not verify that these infants were representatives of the whole population, I will not be convinced.

Another problem of the study is the way to evaluate distress of infants reflecting to the stimuli. If the so called mild distress just means uncomfortable, most infants will have similar response when exposed to unusual odor or an unknown voice. In order to demonstrate that those infants were really more sensible than others, the speaker should provide further information.

Given that those infants were shy to a great extent, it is unfair to allege that the high-level of melatonin is the cause just for its influence to some brain functions and higher level in the body of their mothers. It is entirely possible that the rate of melatonin in the fetus is not high actually because this substance may not migrate from the body of mother to the fetus. If this is the case, the conclusion would be totally unwarranted. Further more, there are also other kinds of factors which may influence the characteristics of the infants. As mentioned by the author, most infants were conceived in early autumn. As our common sense, many aspiratory diseases are at high incidence in autumn. As a result, child born in autumn may be more likely to suffer disease which will cause them to be distress. In a word, if the arguer can not rule out all the conditions, the conclusion can't be drawn.

Last but not least, 13 years is a very long period. No evidence is provided that all these respondents grow up in a similar environment, which is also not possible in our common sense. Moreover, the arguer mentioned that more than half of the respondents show a sigh of excess shyness. Then what about the other half who was also received high level of melatonin in their infancy? It is likely that the disparity was caused by different life experience. Thus, at least melatonin is not the only key that determines the shyness of the respondents. Actually, in my point of view, the resent study actually undermines the conclusion of the author.

To sum up, the argument is not convincible as it stands. To bolster it, the author should first guarantee the statistical reliability of the study, clarify how melatonin in the body of mothers affect the infant and rule out other factors that may cause infants to be shy. Moreover, careful scrutiny should be made to the resent study and make clear why other half of people do not turn out to be shy. Only by checking all points mentioned above can the author convince me.