本帖最后由 windflycc 于 2009-8-29 22:04 编辑
28.The following is a memo from the superintendent of the Mylar school
district.
"A recent six-month study, in which breakfast was made available at school
for 100 schoolchildren ages five to twelve, found that children on the
breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or
late for school. Clearly, eating breakfast before school plays a role in
reducing student absenteeism and tardiness. It is also well known that
children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in
school. Therefore, in order to reduce absenteeism and tardiness and to
improve academic performance in all of Mylar's elementary and secondary
schools, we should provide breakfasts for all students before each school
day."
The aruger in this passage suggest that breakfasts should be provided to all students in Mylar's elementary and secondary schools. She/he provide the suggestion based on a survey that children on the breakfast plan were less likely than other children to be absent from or late for school. He also support his argument based on a well known fact that children who regularly eat a healthful breakfast tend to perform better in school. This passage contains fallacy assumptions and several data and logic flaws.
First of all, the argument is based on a survey whose representativeness is open to doubt. The total number of students in Mylar's schools is not provided. On average, a mid-size city should have at least 10 schools including elementary and secondary schools. That will led to an estimation that Mylar should have at least 5000 students if each school has 500 students which is not a lot at all. The simple math shows us that the sample vs universe ration is about 2%. The fact that 2% sample ratio is a very low number in statistics. It is very likely that some biased result is obtained by the survey. Thus the conclusion of the survey is inconclusive unless the total number of students in Mylar is provided.
Another problem with the argument is that the arguer appeals to the so-called "common sense" that children with good breakfast perform better, a conclusion which requires further support. In such formal writings, all claims have to be backed up with warrants. Types of warrant include: data collected with the right procedure, expert opinion, evidences led to causality relationship and many to mention. However, in this argument, none of the above is provided to actually support that causality relationship between breakfast and performance in school.
Last but not least, the arguer fails to take into account factors other than breakfast, which might account for the absenteeism and tardiness. It can be dependent on the quality of teaching of the school. The curriculum provided by the school can also affect students’ performance. It also might be the case that most students have breakfast regularly even if there is no breakfast provided. Thus providing breakfasts for all student before each school day will not necessarily reduce absenteeism and tardiness.
In conclusion, the arguer does not provide enough information to support the conclusion of the survey and even the validity of the survey itself. She/he also does not provide warrants for some "common sense" causality relationship. At the end, no research and analysis was performed on other factors that might lead to absenteeism and tardiness in school. | 
发表于 2009-8-29 22:03:09
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