argument 45 求好心人拍砖，谢谢

manfred_huiUID: 2689901

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 463
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-8-29 21:22:35

自己改过一点语法和拼写错误，希望大家狠拍，谢谢啦

The editor asserts that the decline of the arctic deer populations is due to inaccessible of the old migration patterns which is caused by the globe warming effect. To support this conclusion, the author cites the observation of some hunters in the arctic region that indicates the slide of the number of arctic deer. Though the editorial seems to be well-presented, we will find several logical fallacies after careful scrutiny.


First of all, the editorial provides little information about the observation method of the local hunters. How many hunters are involved in the survey? How can they determine the population of deer? If they get the conclusion just by counting the number of deer that they hunted within their hunting region, usually a small part of land compared to the living area of arctic deer in our common sense, we can not be convinced that the population of arctic deer is really decreasing.

Another fallacy of the editorial lies in that the author mingles the correlation with causal relationship. As mentioned by the author, globe warming is coincide with the decline of deer population, which is unwarranted though, however, the author can not rule out other factors such as the pollution of toxic chemical substance or the attenuation of ozone layer in the atmosphere that will also threaten the living of arctic deer. As a result, the author must provide the direct evidence to show that global warming is the major reason for the decline and exclude other possibilities before reaching the conclusion.

Last but not least, given that globe warming is the main factor that leads to the population slide of deer, it is unfair to conclude that the decline is attributed to the unavailable of deer to the age-old migration route. Certainly, globe warming may cause some sea ice to melt, however, no evidence is presented that the melted sea ice is on the migration course of the deer. It is entirely possible the arctic deer travel on a thicker ice land or glacial which has not been melted down by the globe warming. Moreover, climate change due to globe warming which damages the food chain of the deer may be the real reason. In a word, the author can not hastily draw the conclusion that globe warming has melted the migration route of the deer.

To sum up, the editorial is not convincible as it stands. To bolster the claim, the author should provide more information about the way hunters observe the decline of deer population and rule out other factors that may threaten the living of deer. Moreover, scientific research should be made to check whether the ice in the migration route of deer has been melted due to the globe warming. Only by providing all information above, can the editorial be logically acceptable.