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发表于 2009-9-1 15:47:41 |显示全部楼层

TOPIC: ARGUMENT101 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals. "In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."WORDS: 449 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009/9/1 15:14:59Citing a dubious study, the author hastily concludes that fortifying their Wheat-O cereal with soy protein will increase sales and bring their company more profits and well as enhance the health conditions of their customers. Although at first sight the argument seems to be appealing, it is in fact ill-stated, as discussed below.To start with, the reliability of study cited by the author is open to question. The author provides no information concerning how the study was conducted. Thus we can hardly evaluate its validity. Chances are that the sample is too small to be representative. It is entirely possible that in this study those who ate soybeans frequently were some young, healthy people taking exercise every day while those who did not were some old, sick people. Then it would be too hastily to conclude that eating soybeans could bring about a lower cholesterol level. In sum, to prove that soybean is effective in lowering cholesterol levels, the author needs to provide more specific, compelling evidence.Besides, even if the soybeans were indeed helpful to lower cholesterol levels, there is no evidence indicating that it is certain proteins it contains makes this difference. It is quite possible that other chemical substances in soybean that are really working, something soy may not even contain. Then fortifying wheat-O cereal with soy protein will be of no use to one's cholesterol levels. Also, even if evidence turns out to substantiate the former assumption, there is no guarantee customers will be attracted by this measures. It is quite possible that they remain suspicious about the effect of the new product or even are not aware that this new measure has been taken due to a poor propaganda. Still less, if the company raise the price of the product due to a higher cost, it is entirely possible that the sales of our Wheat-O cereal will decline.Finally, granted all assumptions mentioned above is true, the author can not convince us that the new product will increase both company profits and improve the health of customers. On the one hand, profits involve both revenue and cost, even if our revenue is increased, we may still be losing money due to a higher cost beyond our endurance. On the other hand, without make a survey concerning the ill-effect of this measure, we can not safely draw the conclusion that customers' health conditions will be improved.In sum, the argument is not so convincing as it stands. To make it more persuasive the author need to provide more specific evidence, make sound reasoning and take every possible alternative explanation into consideration.