argue的第一次，留个纪念~~

jasminexjjUID: 2607063

1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

我的作文：

提纲：

1、
以前的经验并不意味着以后也会如此。一次我们不能简单的根据以前的经验对目前的决策下判断。

2、
P地的居民对运动鞋和运动服的旺盛需求也不代表他们就很concern their health.

3、
正由于5年前该地的运动俱乐部差点儿倒闭而如今生意正旺，我们可以看到，该地居民对于运动的需求具有极大的波动性，而且很有可能是目前一种流行的风气，很快就会过去。

4、
即便这里的运动俱乐部会一直旺盛下去，当地的居民也不一定会愿意在当地购买运动产品。

5、
我们从哪里可以预期到新生代的顾客的产生？当地的学校对于学龄儿童的健康而做出的运动计划也只是在学校里进行，很有可能大多数的人本身并不愿意参加这个program，他们很有可能在学校不再要求或者离开学校后不再做任何的体育锻炼。

This passage is ridiculous for it reasoning process. In my idea, Plainsville is not the area we have profitted in. It is a new place where we are not so familiar to and we cannot easily determine whether we should build new store there or not by the previous experience.

At first, the author use “Previous experience” to explain present situation and even make the explaination that we are always profitable in areas where the people who lived there are more concerned about their health. In my thought,the previous experience can not be easily used in the plan about a new store. Present situation is unlike the situation used to be and market is full of complexity and variability,and we must concern the reality of today.

Secondly,strong demand do not mean Plainsville’s residents like sports and very care their health.The demand may source from the program of Plainsville's schoolchildren who are asked to participated in for their health.Or the residents just buy these sportshoes and exercise colothing for daily wearing.By the more,I have also doubted the reality of the report.How this conclusion made? Is it reliable?The whole passage didn’t mention the method and the process of the report.It just give us a conclusion.

Thirdly,five years ago, The local health club which nearly closed has also told us the dramatically fluctuate of the macket.the local health club can be nearly closed in the past shows it can also be closed in the future.And we can not make the conclusion that the macket of health club will be fine in the future.

Even if the local health club will be fine in the future.It also can not illustrate that the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing will be fine in the local store.The residents have the possiblity to buy running shoes and eercise clothing out of this town.They can go to big cities buy this things or buy it on online stores.The reason that the local health club’s development can result in or represents the sale of running shoes and exercise clothing in local stores would be fine can not set up.

Finely,how can we expect the new generation of customers?Of course,
the local school asked schoolchildren to participate in a 'fitness for life' program.But exactly,many children may not anticipate the program.Even they participate this program,they may stop exercise at first when they leave school.And even if they continue doing exercise,as I said before,they would buy running shoes and exercise clothing outside of Plainsville or online.So we can not make the conclusion that we have a new generation of customers.

In short,the reason the author mentioned all above are not convincing enough to make me believe that the establishing of a new local store related to sports would be profitable.