argument 15 第一次写, 希望有人可以指点

y10kUID: 131092

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletteroffering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desireto reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and todaylow-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food productscurrently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, thecompany's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubtdecrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares andother investors not to purchase stock in this company."



第一次写GRE作文... 没有看过什么模板,可能看起来怪怪的.谢谢.一共花了28分钟.



Outline:

• Share price based on market expectations. Expectations might've already took the survey into account.
• Desire does not equal action, and hard to predict the time frame
• Assume company won’t respond
• Even if sales diminish, profits can rise

The newsletters offers to investors advice to sell or not buy shares of Old Diary, citing the result of a recent survey as evidence and the nature of Old Dairy’s products are high in fats and cholesterols that most respondents of the survey wish to reduce their intake. While the evidence can suggest the possibility that the share price will go down, it is far from rock solid.

First of all, the author ignored the fundamental determinant of a company’s share price: market expectation. Share price is based on the expected value of future profitability of the company, and if an event lowers the market expectation, the share price will go down, and vice versa. However, it could have been the case that many more similar survey results had been released to the general public and the share price of Old Dairy has already reflected these results. In this case, the market expectation for Old Dairy’s future profitability will stay unchanged and so is the share price.

Even if we assume the survey does suggest a trend new to the market’s knowledge, the argument still suffers from many flaws.

To begin with, the author failed to convey credibility by providing more background information and citing the source of the survey. Although the survey tells the “desire” of a market trend, it does not indicate the time frame of such a trend. Behaviors of the market certainly don’t change overnight, and in the case of equity trading, timing is sensitive. The share price of Old Diary may stay flat, if not going up, if the consumers find it hard to decrease their reliance of diets that are high in fats and cholesterol in the next ten years.

The author is presuming that Old Dairy does not react to external changes. In the history of business, those who adapt thrive. It can safely be assumed that the product development and the marketing units in Old Dairy are reading news about this survey as quickly as anyone else. To be fair, the units might have been secretly developing new product lines and marketing strategies that focus on low fat and cholesterol diets. It is not uncommon for a company to re-invent itself when in danger.

Last but not least, profit is the difference between revenue and costs. Take IBM as an example. Amid the 2009 credit crunch, the profit went up despite declining revenue. Even in the absence of new product lines that adapt to market trends, Old Diary can introduce new operations that increase the company’s productivity and effect positive cost management change.

To conclude, I envision many factors that the author failed to take into consideration when evaluating Old Diary’s share price given the background information. The decision to buy or sell is paramountly important to investors, as many bet their lifetime savings on equity trading. Consequently, this necessitates a more thorough analysis on the market, the company’s product strategies, and its operation strategies.

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

第一段：


The newsletters {单数} offers to {去掉to} investors an advice {不可数，可用a piece of advice或者直接用advice} to sell or not buy shares of Old Diary, citing the result of a recent survey as evidence and the nature of Old Dairy’s products are high in fats and cholesterols that most respondents of the survey wish to reduce their intake. {against holding shares of the Old Dairy Industries, based on the result of a recent survey and the fact that many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol.} While the evidence {above-mentioned facts} can suggest the possibility that the share price will go down, it is far from rock solid {convincing}.

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

第二段：

First of all, the author ignored {fails to notice that} the fundamental determinant of a company’s share price:{is its} market expectation. Share price is based on the expected value of {去掉} future profitability of the {a} company, and if an event lowers the {去掉} market expectation {is lowered}, the share price will go down, and vice versa. However, it could have been the case that many more similar survey results had been released to the general public and the share price of Old Dairy already reflects these results {if many surveys with similar results had been released, the share price of the company probably mirrored the trend}. In this case, the market expectation for Old Dairy’s future profitability will stay unchanged {.} and so is the share price.{And it will be the same with the share price.}

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

第三段：

Even if we assume the survey does suggest a trend new to the market’s knowledge {to one’s knowledge可以用物做主语么？}, the argument still suffers from many flaws.

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

第四段：

To begin with, the author failed {fails} to convey credibility by providing more background information and citing the source of the survey. Although the survey tells {shows} the “desire” of {去掉} a market trend, it does not indicate the timeframe of such a trend {it}. Behaviors of the market {直接用Market behaviors就好了} certainly don’t change overnight, and in the case of equity trading, timing is sensitive {essential}. The share price of Old Diary {the company} may stay flat, if not going up, if {in case} the consumers find it hard to decrease their {去掉} reliance of {on} diets that are high in fats {单数} and cholesterol in the next ten years.

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

第五段：

The author is presuming {一般现在时比较好} that Old Dairy {the company} does {will} not react to external changes. In the history of business, those who adapt thrive {太Chinglish了}. It can safely be {be safely} assumed that the product development and the marketing units in Old Dairy are reading news about this survey as quickly as anyone else. {people working for the company will not miss the news.} To be fair, the units {those in the Research and Development Department and Marketing Development of the company} might have been secretly developing new product lines and marketing strategies that focus on low fat and cholesterol {去掉} diets {low in fat and cholesterol}. It is not uncommon for a company to re-invent itself when in danger. {A company that is put in danger has the potential to restore its glamour.}

y10kUID: 131092

谢谢cinderella!

写的太急了，下次应该自己先看一下 :)

不过

those who adapt thrive

我觉得不是Chinglish :)

cinderella1016UID: 2666652

还有两段没来得及改，正好留给你自己看~~

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

前段时间刚给人改过这篇，总体思路如下：
"这篇argue题的逻辑链是通过调查推出消费者就不爱买高脂肪食品，从而再推出生产高脂肪食品的公司会亏损，再叫人们采取卖股票什么的行动。
写作之前先分析逻辑，不要盲目下笔，胡乱攻击几点完事。
只有找出逻辑，从根上层层攻击，才具有说服力。"

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

你的问题也是想到哪里写到哪里，段落间缺乏逻辑连贯性，段落顺序需要调整，尤其是论述段第一个和第二个之间完全缺乏联系，一上来就将股价，讲完股价突然又说survey了。。。其实股价应该是最后讲
段落内部举得具体例子还可以，但由于杂乱无章的段落顺序显然大为削弱了攻击力度

sakuraanneUID: 2253519

行文还算灵活，但有个比较大的问题就是每段段首主题句都只表明了你的观点，没有和题目本身联系起来，所有的你都说出问题，但不说“所以文中说的**有问题”之类。当然这个联系别人可以猜到，但显然逻辑就不严密了。