美月第二次作业argu190

jessicamarineUID: 2595044

Argument 190   495字 一小时粗稿 二十分钟修改
190The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
过去几年中，购买了Glenville夏季音乐会的预售票的人数减少了，表明它缺乏社会支持。尽管过去几年的天气确实有些变化无常，但这并不是预售票销售减少的原因，因为很多人即使在坏天气下仍然参加音乐会。显然，销量下降的原因是音乐的选择，因此音乐会的组织者应该在未来提供更多的现代音乐，并保证演奏更多的Richerts作曲的作品，Glenville的居民购买他的唱片的数量显著多于其他的当代音乐唱片。这一策略无疑将会增加预售票的销量并增加音乐会的上座率。

原文思路：预售票下降--缺乏社会支持(attendance)
          缺乏社会支持--因为 选音乐失误（不是天气的原因）
          What music--modern music---of Richerts---因为同时代他的卖的最好
           If Richerts ----increase attendance  


攻击点
1 错误假设 advance tickets下降不一定意味着社会支持的下降，即attendance下降
《需  进一步数据，比如attendance数据证明》
   即使 attendance下降未必社会支持下降， 可能同时期其他音乐会亦然甚至跌得更狠，【经济危机】【时代没有好音乐】
2  非此即彼 不是天气就一定是音乐吗？！
【 票价太高 时间、地点安排不合适， 服务态度不够好\\\ 竞争 室内音乐会 其他休闲】
《否决上例》
3  无理假设：何以modern music  【古典音乐】
何以Richerts？ 比同时期的高不说明比所有高，可能同时期的音乐不好
《同时期有代表性》
4 即使123， R音乐未必起死回生【 经济变化】
《证明上》



As we have seen in the letter, the writer is worried about Glenville Summer Concert (GSC) for the decline in its advance tickets, which the author thinks is equal to a lack of community support. To solve the problem the author suggests featuring more modern music, especially those by Richerts (R) for the reasons he has lists in the letter. The author's suggestion seems somewhat reasonable at the first glance. However a thorough analysis reveals several critical logical problems as blow.
First of all, the author unfairly equats a decrease in the advance tickets with a fall in attendance and even a failure in the community support, which is clearly unnecessarily the case. It is highly possible that the atendance rate didn't fall at all, but as advance tickets was more expensive than the normal or that buying advance tickets is quite inconvenient, thus making a decrease in advance tickets.Even if the atendance rate do have falled, still that doesn't  necessarily mean a failure in its community support. Maybe, as the economy was hard, people just spent less money on concerts. If so, the fall means little to its community support.
Granted that the lack of community support is true, the author too hastily concluds that it is the music that result in the failure. Firstly, the unpredictable whether is dubious, even though the author has made a doutful claim that the many people attended the concerts even in bad weather, for common sense tells me "many" doesn't means "most"-few of us would go for a concert in bad whether, don't we? What's more many other reasons might have resulted in the fall, too. For example, the ticket might be too expensive, or people just prefer  superior concerts regardless whatever music GSC plays, or maybe the organizer selected some inconvenient concert time and place, etc. In any of these cases the author just cannot accuse the music choice as the main reason for its community support decline.
Even if it's the poorly chosed music that caused a community support decline, the author irrationally assumes featuring more modern music especially those of R will solve the problem Firstly, no evidence that people in Glenville prefer modern music is provided. Secondly, the best  one might not be the fitest one. Even assuming people love R's music, featuring music by R might not be practical, for as we all know the fees paid for musician like R would not be low. Actually, an occassional music by R mixed with some other music may be more practical.  
To sum up, the author lends little support to his suggestions with his so-called "evidence". To make his suggestions more convincing, the author should provide substantial evidence that the community support is falling and that it's the poorly chosed music rather than something else that caused the failure. To better eveluate the argument, we would also need to know the music preference of  Glenville  people and the practicality of the author's suggestion.

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