Argument 1

adammaksimUID: 2675466

TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
WORDS: 453
TIME: 00:45:00
DATE: 2010/1/16 20:18:12

Based on their former experience that the company's stores are highly profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives and the assumption Plainsville is such a place with many adults, even children, who are tend to pay a lot of attention to their health, this vice president conclude it will be wise to build their next new store in Plainsville. However, with the evidence presented, the president fails to account for his claim.
First of all, maybe the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are truly high, but we cannot draw a conclusion that people in Plainsville love exercise and are willing to pay for their habits. People can buy running shoes and exercise clothing for many reasons. It is possible, for example that people buy them just because they want to wear comfortably or it is a local fashion to wear running shoes and exercise clothing. And for running shoes, in some case, many people can buy them even not for wearing. I have seen a lot of people collecting sports shoes just for fun. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author's reasoning is untenable.
In the same way, the report from the local health club is also flawed. For this health club was nearly closed five years ago, although this club has more members than ever, the total number of the members can still be small which is not credible enough to reveal the true preferences of local people.
This argument is fundamentally weakened by the author's overlooking of the human’s nature. My common sense informs me that many people tend to pay little attention to their health condition when they are healthy enough. That is why many young people are crazy about extreme sports, such as BMX, Rockcraft and skateboarding, in spite of the possible danger they may face from slight chafe to serious bone fracture, and in contrast, old people obviously will concern more about their health and behave with much caution. As a result if most of the people in Plainsville tend to do a lot of exercise and even their next generation are required to participate in a 'fitness of life ' program as the author point out, we can conclude reasonably that people in Plainsville will live a healthier life than people in other regions. And I doubt whether they will be willing to pay a lot of money on those extra health food and other health-related products.
To sum up, based on a series of flawed evidences and assumptions, the author's claim cannot be trusted. For a better understanding of local people's consumption habits, a face to face talk with them or a well-designed market research will be more effective.