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第八次作业
本帖最后由 lcv8006 于 2010-2-5 00:27 编辑
7 The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
提纲:
1、证明现在的镇议会没有保护环境的结论有问题
A 工厂数量翻番与空气污染水平加剧并没有必然联系。
B 医院调查证据的可信度有问题。而且就是出现病人增加,在没有明确数据的支持下,25%没有说服力。而且呼吸系统疾病不一定都与空气污染有关。
2、不能因为Ann是绿党成员就说她一定能改善环境。没有证据证明她能够改善环境。
The letter concludes that the residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green for she can solve the environmental problems of their town. To support this claim, the author points out that the current members of the Clearview town council are not protecting their environment, and Ann Green is a member of the Good Earth Coalition. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, but on examination of it proves to be deeply problematic. We may find the argument is flawed in several aspects which render it unpersuasive as it stands.
At the beginning, only according to the examples that the author recited, it is difficult to draw the conclusion that the current town council does not protect the environment of Clearview town. Firstly, the author attempts to establish a causal relationship between the fact that the number of factories in Clearview has doubled and the claim that the air pollution levels has increased. This argument, nonetheless, is based on an oversimplified analysis of the cause of air pollution and the presumptuous correlation accordingly is unacceptable. Actually, there may be other factors that could have contributed to air pollution, such as the increasing population of the town, and the global greenhouse effect. And if the factory is working for refuse reclamation, which would benefit the environment protection.
Secondly, the reliability and generalizability of the hospital survey are open to question. The author indicates that there are more 25% respiratory patients than before during last year. However, he doesn’t provide the actually number of resporatory patients before last year. For example, if there are 4 patients in the year before last and there are 5 patients in last year. Is it reliable to conclude the result that the increasing air pollution casued more respiratory illness? Moreover, Even if there is an obviously increased number of respiratory sick, there may be other factors that could have caused it. Such as the acute change of weather, the circumstance of living, and some unhealthy living habits. Thus, from what the author has indicated, it is weakness to claim that the council does not protect the town’s environment.
In addition, there is no evidence provides that if Ann Green becomes the mayoral, the enviornment will be solved. the author indicates no other information but she is a member of a enviornmental protection organization tosupport his argument, nevertheless, no one can deny the fact that to make a commitment is one thing, to keep it is far more difficult. There is no indication that she might fulfill her promise. Consequently, the author could not make any prediction.
To sum up, the recommedation is ill conceived and poorly supported . Regardless of who the author is, he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the author must consider and rule out more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities. |
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