issue125 by dingyi0311[reborn from ash]

dingyi0311UID: 2627919

We human always want to make a prediction of the future and in hope to control or change it. This is why wizard or fortune teller who can give prophecy is venerated in ancient time. Nowadays, it was clear to us prophecy from wizard did not make sense ; people now in hope to predict the future in a more scientific way-by analysis the data or trend in the past. It have succeed in some area and some conditions. People now can make some inaccurate prediction in meteorology and economy. However, there are still many things happens out of our expectation.
In science realm, scientists have make many prediction of the future with the knowledge and the principles we have already controlled. Weather forecast has been a very common TV program on show. Through it, people can well control the weather in the next hours, days, or even weeks. Also, astronomer can do better off in the prediction. Couple of month ago, there was a solar eclipse, a astronomical phenomenon that can only occurs hundreds of years a time. In order to enable all the people see this spectacular nature phenomenon , the Observatory have give us a accurate time and tell us the exact second it will happen, and the fact have prove their prediction was exactly right. All these our achievement in predicting the future are based on the data and experience from the past. Data about humidity, temperature, winds and so forth was collected by meteorologist to analysis the possibility. Similarly, astrologist also make prediction through long time observation and calculation of data about sun and earth’s movement.
Admittedly, we have make some progress in foresee the future in the science realm, however, this realm are very limited and can hardly be perfect. True enough that we can predict weather, it yet can not be very accurate. There are many occasions that the reality is completely opposite to the meteorologist’s prediction since the weather are influenced by many factors and shift swiftly. As to the prediction of solar eclipse, it can be startling accurate just because the moon and earth’s orbit are so stable and was determined by the gravity-a factor that was predicable and repeatable. once the complexity have arised, the accuracy of prediction drop sharply.
In social realm, where there are fraught with unknown factors and accidence, prediction becomes even more difficult. Yet people are still trying to make some prediction through the data from the past. The investment managers are trying to forecast the up and down of the share through the data before. Economists are vigorously predicting the future macroeconomic status especially after the current recession, some of them compare it with the great recession in the 19th century and persimistically predict that the economy will never come back to what was before the slump.
However, just as no one have foreknown the occurrence of secondary crisis, their prediction of future, if some succeed by luck, can not in accord with reality. In these cases, people’s prediction, like the prophecy of wizard, make no much sense. The complexity have beyond human’s knowledge.
Moreover, as to the event that completely drived by possibilities and chances, the past can hardly give us any guidance. This is particularly true when people buy lotteries. We have known all the information about the past, but no one can say with even a bit of confidence that he can predict the number of the lottery in the next time. The result of the lotteries are completely occurred by chance and was not affected by any thing else, on this view, the past give no guidance to the future.
In the final analysis, we now are striving to record and analysis the data in the past and try to use it to predict the future, and have made some triumph in some aspect. But mostly , the past is no predictor of the future.

番茄斗斗UID: 2720914

Wehuman always want to make a prediction of the future and in hope tocontrol or change it. This is why wizard or fortune teller who can giveprophecy is venerated in ancient time. Nowadays, it was clear to usprophecy from wizard did not make sense ; people now in hope to predictthe future in a more scientific way-by analysis the data or trend inthe past. It have succeed in some area and some conditions. People nowcan make some inaccurate prediction in meteorology and economy.However, there are still many things happens out of our expectation.
Inscience realm, scientists have make many prediction of the future withthe knowledge and the principles we have already controlled（control the knowledge?有点奇怪。。建议：grasp/gain）. Weatherforecast has been a very common TV program on show. Through it, peoplecan well control（control??应该是forsee吧） the weather in the next hours, days, or even weeks.Also, astronomer can do better off(这里的off应该舍弃) in the prediction. Couple of monthago, there was a solar eclipse, a astronomical phenomenon that can onlyoccurs hundreds of years a time. In order to enable all the people seethis spectacular nature phenomenon , the Observatory have give us aaccurate time and tell us the exact second it will happen, and the facthave prove their prediction was exactly right. All these ourachievement in predicting the future are based on the data andexperience from the past. Data about humidity, temperature, winds andso forth was collected by meteorologist to analysis the possibility.Similarly, astrologist also make prediction through long timeobservation and calculation of data about sun and earth’s movement.（这里用了天气预报来证明过去积累的数据得以让我们预知未来，有点牵强，因为天气预报是由于技术的advance所带来的成果，而对于未来的天气它的预测基础不是过去的数据而是对云层的探测等）
Admittedly,we have make some progress in foresee the future in the science realm,however, this realm are very limited and can hardly be perfect（是想表述科学领域很有限？我觉得该是预知的运用领域很有限吧）. Trueenough that we can predict weather, it yet can not be very accurate.There are many occasions that the reality is completely opposite to themeteorologist’s prediction since the weather are（is） influenced by manyfactors and shift swiftly. As to the prediction of solar eclipse(这里是想说然而日蚀的预测相对精准吗？表达上有点问题，没有表现出那种转折，建议用contrarily ,prediction of...), itcan be startling accurate just because the moon and earth’s orbit areso stable and was determined by the gravity-a factor that waspredicable and repeatable（重力因素是可预测且重复的？？倒不如这样说：a factor that has been proved as a matter of fact and stay still ）. once the complexity have arised, theaccuracy of prediction drop sharply.
Insocial realm, where there are fraught with unknown factors andaccidence, prediction becomes even more difficult. Yet people are stilltrying to make some prediction through the data from the past. Theinvestment managers are trying to forecast the up and down of the share（up and down of the share?这样的表达有点奇怪。。）through the data before. Economists are vigorously predicting thefuture macroeconomic status(??) especially after the current recession,some of them compare it with the great recession in the 19th centuryand persimistically predict that the economy will never come back towhat was before the slump.
However, just as no one have foreknown the occurrence of secondarycrisis, their prediction of future, if some succeed by luck, can not inaccord with reality（这句没看懂@.@）. In these cases, people’s prediction, like theprophecy of wizard, make no much sense. The complexity have beyondhuman’s knowledge.
Moreover,as to the event that completely drived by possibilities and chances,the past can hardly give us any guidance. This is particularly truewhen people buy lotteries. We have known all the information about thepast, but no one can say with even a bit of confidence that he canpredict the number of the lottery in the next time. The result of thelotteries are completely occurred by chance and was not affected by anything else, on this view, the past give no guidance to the future.(彩票的例子没看出与题目的切题之处，彩票的past体现在哪里？在我看来，人们买彩票只是出于碰运气的心理，而不是对过去的了解)
Inthe final analysis, we now are striving to record and analysis the datain the past and try to use it to predict the future, and have made sometriumph in some aspect. But mostly , the past is no predictor of thefuture.

这篇issue的逻辑线其实还是挺清晰的：天气预报和日蚀提出复杂程度影响预测--越复杂越难预测--大多数事件的复杂程度是超乎人们想象，且多凭运气的--结论：无法预知未来，这样的结构可谓层层递进。可是在用词表达上还略有欠缺，论证方面不够深入，导致这样的逻辑线看了两遍才理出来。。。
同时，例子的引用上证明的力度不够，如彩票，没有切实的吻合题意，在列提纲的时候要好好揣摩下～