Argument147 by WCNK

wcnkUID: 2546550

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 414
TIME: 00:59:12

point：1.调查类错误；
              2. 充分条件错误；（up-to-date computers）
              3.外推错误；（过去-->现在趋势）
              4.无因果类错误；（advertising at 10-25 age-group）

Merely on the unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the arguer draw the conclusion that the sales trend of Whirlwind (W for short) video games is about to be reversed from declination. It seems convincing at the first sight, however, after further analyzing, some sever paradox would appear.

First of all, although the arguer use a survey as the support to this conclusion, the survey has nothing in mentioning about the quantity of the sample, people who are researched may be counted on the fingers of two hands. The less people the survey investigated, the less reliable the result to indicate current levels.

Even if the survey is full of authority, it cannot support the conclusion soundly. In the result of this survey, there is a claim that the video-game players' preference requires the most up-to-date computers, which means in order to draw the conclusion that sales trend of W video games increase dramatically, there must have another precondition that most of the video-game players update their computer, or just buy new computers. Obviously, the situation whether they update the computers or not is unpredictable. For various reasons, video-game players may not update or remove their computers. Even if the W company introduces several really good games, the sale condition would not increase dramatically.

In addition, as the arguer claimed, W has just introduced several games which fits the preference of video-game players, it doesn't means the preference would last for a longtime. The trend of what players like may change in very short time. While the arguer fails to provide other evidence which can indicate this trend will still last after new W video games come into the market. Thus, it cannot support the conclusion.

Moreover, an extensive advertising to "the age-group range from 10 to 25 most likely to play video games" have nothing directly to do with the conclusion that sales of W video games are likely to increase. For the reason that this age-group mentioned in the statement isn't the major consumer of video games. Most of people in this group are children who are not financial-independent, they hardly have enough money to buy new video games. Their parents are actually the payer of these games. So just advertising at these children may not robust their sales.

To sum up, the assumption is unacceptable merely by the reasons and survey the arguer offered. To better assess this argument the arguer need to research more about the players and make more advertisement at the real consumers.

感觉写的很high，再一看表1个小时了~~

cyctUID: 2728144

改好的，Issue和Argu都在里面

wcnkUID: 2546550

第一次修改：
Merely on the unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the arguer draw the conclusion that the sales trend of Whirlwind (W for short) video games is about to be reversed from declination. It seems convincing at the first sight, however, after further analyzing, some sever paradox would appear.

First of all, although the arguer use a survey as the support to achieve this conclusion, the survey does not mention about the quantity the sample or the percentage of players the survey investigated, people who are researched may be counted on the fingers of one hand. The less people the survey investigated, the smaller percentage it surveyed, the less reliable the result to indicate current levels.

Even if the survey is full of authority, it cannot support the conclusion soundly, many other reasons would influence the validity of the conclusion. As mentioned in the survey, there is a claim that the video-game players' preference about video games requires the most up-to-date computers, which means in order to draw the conclusion, there must have another precondition that most of the video-game players should update their computer, or buy new ones. Obviously, the situation whether they will update and remove their computers or not is unpredictable. For various reasons, video-game players may not update their computers or buy new ones. Even if the W company introduces several really good games, the sale condition would not increase dramatically.

In addition, as the arguer claimed, W has just introduced several games which fit the preference of video-game players, it does not mean that the preference would last for a longtime. The trend of what players like may change in very short time. While the arguer fails to provide other evidence which can indicate this trend will still last after new W video games come into the market. Thus, it cannot support the conclusion.

Moreover, an extensive advertising to "the age-group range from 10 to 25 most likely to play video games" have nothing directly to do with the conclusion that sales of W video games are likely to increase. For the curtail reason that this age-group mentioned in the statement isn't the major consumer of video games. Most of people in this group are children who are not financial-independent, so they hardly have enough money to buy new video games. Their parents are actually the payer of these games. So just advertising at these children may not boost their sales.

To sum up, the assumption is unacceptable merely by the reasons and survey the arguer offered. To better assess this argument, the arguer need to research more about the players and make more advertisement at the target consumers.

tofeeUID: 2485486

Even if the survey is full of authority, it cannot support the conclusion soundly,（句号？） many other reasons would influence the validity of the conclusion.
除了这点，我觉得整个论述应该没有什么问题。