Arguement147 很有信心的一篇，谁来拍拍~

zhaohanUID: 2595904

147The following appeared in an editorial社论 in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


2010-1-31 20:32~20:38
1.
The sales reserve not equate the increase dramatically.
1.1
the sales may increase the costs
1.2
other companies’ competition
1.3
the time factors
2.
the sales may not be reserved
2.1
the question not focus on the theme directly
2.2
whether all the gameplayers can offord the computers.
2.3
The other factors of the game may also have influence
2.4
the advertising’ effective& other methods
2.5
the consume groups

PASSAGE2010-1-31 20:39-21:21

In this editorial, the author concludes that the Whirlwind video games’ sales trend is about to be reversed in the next few months. To strengthen the recommendation, the arguer cites the evidence of a survey which is supposed to show the potential customers as well as the advertising campaign to promote the sales. Well-present and seems logically reasoning, the conclusion can hardly stand up to any scrutiny for its apparent flaws:

First and foremost, granted that all the evidence the writer cites is reliable, the evidence can still not directly demonstrate the increase of sales because the author fail to rule out other factors that may also influence the sales, that is, the speaker fail to tell all the possibilities lead to the decline in the past two years. Perhaps a research is needed to exhibit that other companies’ competition and the economical crisis also play roles of the decrease in the past two years. Furthermore, the inference that the conditions in the past will remain still in the future can also diminish the conclusion, It is entirely possible that during the past two years, the appetite of game-players’ has changed a lot. If so, the methods which were effective to promote the sales may lose their significance along with time going. To sum up, the survey and the advertise campaign are insufficient to the claim even admits they are perfect.
Moreover, the survey is also suffer from some ill- logical flaws. On one hand, the question of the survey doesn’t focus on the intention directly. As the survey is to learn the potential costumes of the company, perhaps the most directly question is that if the Whirlwind promote some kinds of video games whether they would prefer to purchase. Even the respondents reveal that they favor the game provide the vivid graphic, we can not hastily assume that they would be willing to buy the production of Whirlwinds. On the other hand, the games have special demand for the computers which not everyone could afford so that lead to the loss of some costumers.

Last but not the least, the advertising campaign’s effect is also open to doubt. There is no necessary relationship between the group most likely to play the video games with the persons who patronize the Whirlwind frequently. Even assume that the people 10 to 25 years old prefer the games mostly, the change of company may result in the decrease of other customs of other ages. Meanwhile, other factors like the music of the game, the design and the feature should also be taken into account.

In conclusion, the author fails to convince us the reliability of both the survey and the advertising campaign. Besides, the author’s claim of the increase of the sales is based on the unfair assumption. To support the conclusion, the author may need a more accurate survey and rule out other possibilities as well as some more effective methods to promote the sales.