arguemnt147,拍死有奖啊，欢迎互拍

落雪飞花2008UID: 2579536

147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past
two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales
trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what
features they thought were most important in a video game. According to
the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which
require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced
several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at
people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games.
It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to
increase dramatically in the next few months."

尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个月中猛增。



In this argument, the arguer claims that the declining sales trend of Whirlwind over the past two years will be reversed in the next few months by the introduction of their several new vivid games with an extensive advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old. To support this claim, the arguer cites the results of a survey that most video games enthusiasts prefer games with lifelike graphics. However, a careful examination will reveal how unconvincing the conclusion is.

First, the manager of Whirlwind may commit a strategic fallacy. As we are informed, the sales of the products of Whirlwind have shrinked in the recent two years. Also, the arguer presumes this sale crisis will definitely be solved by the powerful introduction of the several new lifelike games, which is groundless. It is possible that the sales decline results from the unreasonable price or the poor content of games, and both problems are ignored by the manager. Or perhaps Whirlwind has always cooperate with the same advertising corporation, whose propagandistic ability is doubtful, and thus lead to the diminishing market share of Whirlwind. Therefore, without making clear the reason for Whirlwind’s decreasing sales, we have every reason to doubt the correctness of the leader’s strategy.

Second,the result of the survey is insufficient to convince us that people 10-25 years old are in favor of games with excellent lifelike graphics. More specific information about the age distribution of the participants is needed. Perhaps the survey is aimed at people above 25 years old. Thus, the results of this survey cannot be applied on the age group of 10-25 years old mechanically. Perhaps people 10-25 years old care more about the price or the
content of video games, which maybe the weakness of the Whirlwind’ products. Therefore, the new games of Whirlwind would not gain the popularity of their focuced group.

Granted that people 10-25 years old care more about the quality and vividness of the graphics, there is no guarantee that Whirlwind video games will be profitable. We are informed that the lifelike games require the most up-to-date computers, which means, playing such games demands a heavy investment. How can the teenagers, who do not have steady incomes, afford such enormous money? They are most likely to purchase games that their purses can control. After all, the right is the best. Besides, other factors may influence Whirlwind’s market share and profit, such as the trend of video games, the products of competitors, and the national economic climate. Before all this information is provided, we have every reason to doubt whether the video games of Whirlwind will be a hit.

To sum up, the argument is not as persuasive as it stands. To solidify the claim, the arguer must provide information that what the preference of people 10-25 years old for video games, the essence of the declining sales of Whirlwind, and the analysis about where Whirlwind stands in the market.