argument117【clover】第三次小组作业 by CC

chaliaUID: 2589767

1楼: 原稿
2楼: taotaole的修改稿
4楼: 在taotaole的意见下,我的修改稿..还是有些问题哦~...  走过路过..大家帮我看看...thanks...


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117. The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

最近一次调查超过70％的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升，我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势，在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革，我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。


1. 增加库存不一定会使office-supply department 成为最盈利的部门
A.库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。
B.没有将这一部门和其他部门进行详细的比较，只是说明了这一部门的增长，不一定就比其他部门的利润高。
2.在家的办公量的增加不意味着对机器的需求量会增加，没有必然联系。
3. survey 的问题


In this memo the business manger claims that office-supply departments will become the most profitable store in V by augmenting its inventories of both home office machines and office supplies. To validate this assertion, the business manger quotes a survey which reveals that most people nowadays have endured greater pressure of taking unfinished work back home than before. Scrutinize examination of each the supporting evidence, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the author’s allegation.

The major problem with this argument is that increase of stocks in both office supplies and office machines accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the assertion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable store in V.

To begin with, the enhancement of home office machines and office stationery do not necessarily indicate that the sales will increase similarly. The business manger overlooks a myriad of other possible factors which have great impact on the volume of sales, such as the quality of the product, the price and the after-sale service. In short, without ruling out other possible factors that might contribute to the sales of a product, the manager cannot convince me on the basis of the increase of inventory.

Moreover, even if the sales in office-supply department will increase likewise, the manager unfairly assumes further that the office-supply department will surpass all other departments in V. the manager fails to make a sensible comparison between office-supply department and other departments. Comparing with others, it is entirely possible that the initial turnover in office-supply department is so small, that only a growth tendency in sales is far from enough to help the department to become the most profitable among all. Another possibility is that the one of the other department, for example grocery department, may have a more remarkable growth tendency than the office-supply department. Since the memo fails to account for this alternative explanation, the manager cannot make any sound claim that the office-supply department will become the most profitable department in V only by increasing the stocks.

Another point worth considering is that there is no evidence showing that people who are required to take more work back home indicate a larger market demand for home office machines or office stationery. In the world of connection, it is equally possible that most of the office clerks can finish their work by using personal computer through internet. That is to say, they do not need to prepare more stationery at home, or even buy the printers and paper shredders which seem to be an unnecessary expense for them. Since the business manager has not adequately responded to this concern, the fact that there are more people are required to take unfinished work home proves nothing about the increase demand for home office appliance.

Yet another problem with the memo involves is the survey which suggests an upward trend of taking work back home is independable. Firstly, the manager provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of office clerks. Secondly, lacking the number of participants, it is possibly that people who respond to the survey is constituted an in sufficiently small sample compared to the overall group. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the manager cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions that the sales of Whirlwind are likely to increase dramatically.

In sum, as it stands the argument that the stocks in office-supply department should be expanded which will ultimately enable the department to become the most profitable one in V is wholly unpersuasive. To bolster it the business manager must show more detail statistics of the survey. To better assess the suggestion it would be useful to know whether there is a casual relationship between more requirement of taking work back home and the real purchase behavior of home office appliance. Also useful would be any information about other departments of the store that may help to justify whether a department will become the most profitable in V.

taotaoleUID: 2694983

抱歉也挺晚得知这次的互改顺序的……这篇给的意见有点harsh了~不过只是我个人的意见，可以和我探讨，但深入求证还要望组内的前辈了~

117. The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component（1） of our stores."
1. 增加库存不一定会使office-supply department 成为最盈利的部门
A.库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。（因果关系）
B.没有将这一部门和其他部门进行详细的比较，只是说明了这一部门的增长，不一定就比其他部门的利润高。（从most的点来分析）
2.在家的办公量的增加不意味着对机器的需求量会增加，没有必然联系。（从推论的角度）
3. survey 的问题
存疑  资料释义

In this memo the business manger claims that office-supply departments will become the most profitable store (原题中的是component—和store不能直接替换吧~)in V by augmenting its inventories of both home office machines and office supplies. To validate this assertion, the business manger quotes a survey which reveals that most people nowadays have endured greater pressure （觉得这个它调查说的也不是很明确-带更多工作回家就直指工作负荷加大？是不是可能工作方式灵活化，把在外办公量减少而在家办公量增加呢？---可能我的理解有点极端…）
of taking unfinished work back home than before. Scrutinize(没主语的~ Scrutinizing) examination of each the supporting evidence, however, (+ the argument) reveals that none of them lend credible support to the author’s allegation.

The major problem with this argument is that increase of stocks in both office supplies and office machines accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the assertion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable store in V.
概述主要谬误。
To begin with, the enhancement of home office machines and office stationery do not necessarily indicate that the sales will increase similarly. The business manger overlooks a
myriad of other possible factors which have great impact on the volume of sales, such as the quality of the product, the price and the after-sale service. In short, without ruling out other possible factors that might contribute to the sales of a product, the manager cannot convince me on the basis of the increase of inventory.
这里的分析觉得有些问题。你的观点是：库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。但是考虑作者的这一推论是怎么来的：因为他根据调查的情况做了市场需求增加的预期，从而为此增加供给量，保证销售量提升，增加盈利。这里的分析提供的思路却是单纯立足最终结论，而把原文中的推理过程忽视了。还有，经营者通过自己的市场预期调整经营策略本身是合理的行为，关键应该在于这里的预期是否是可靠的，如果不是的话就会导致决策失误。所以分析重点应该是在得出结论的过程，如预期的获得；而不是结论本身~
Moreover, even if the sales in office-supply department will increase likewise, the manager unfairly assumes further that the office-supply department will surpass all other departments in V. The manager fails to make a sensible comparison between office-supply department and other departments. Comparing with others, it is entirely possible that the initial turnover in office-supply department is so small, that only a growth tendency in sales is far from enough to help the department to become the most profitable among all. Another possibility is that the one of the other department, for example grocery department, may have a more remarkable growth tendency than the office-supply department. Since the memo fails to account for this alternative explanation, the manager cannot make any sound claim that the office-supply department will become the most profitable department in V only by increasing the stocks.
这一段论证的基本有力。可以更紧扣这个best的概念是从比较中来的，再依次举例缺乏比例的潜在证据。
Another point worth considering is that there is no evidence showing that people who are required to take more work back home indicate a larger market demand for home office machines or office stationery. In the world of connection, it is equally possible that most of the office clerks can finish their work by using personal computer through internet. That is to say, they do not need to prepare more stationery at home, or even buy the printers and paper shredders which seem to be an unnecessary expense for them. Since the business manager has not adequately responded to this concern, the fact that there are more people are required to take unfinished work home proves nothing about the increase demand for home office appliance.
此段较有力的否定了话题中的第一个推断（对市场的预期），例子也比较恰当。

Yet another problem with the memo involves is （+that表语从句的连接词不建议省略）the survey which suggests an upward trend of taking work back home is independable（undependable）. Firstly, the manager provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of office clerks. Secondly, lacking the number of participants, it is possibly that people who respond to the survey is constituted an in sufficiently small sample compared to the overall group. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the manager cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions that the sales of Whirlwind ??are likely to increase dramatically.这个模板句要改改吧~
对survey的质疑，比较全面具体的进行了论断。

In sum, as it stands the argument that the stocks in office-supply department should be expanded which will ultimately enable the department to become the most profitable one in V is wholly unpersuasive. 可以考虑句子结构上的精简To bolster it，
the business manager must show more detail statistics of the survey. To better assess the suggestion， it would be useful to know whether there is a casual relationship between more requirement of taking work back home and the real purchase behavior of home office appliance. Also useful？ would be any information about other departments of the store that may help to justify whether a department will become the most profitable in V.这句是倒装？没看到能构成倒装的关键词啊~；还有建议把从句或短语置于主句前时，最好打个逗号，放主句后就不用了。


因为之前Argument的讲座没参加,今天看过会议记录才有所了解。感觉这篇写的太受会议的影响了，以致思量有些不够。不过除去一处分析觉得不妥，其他方面的结构组织论证都OK，用词表意方面也都不错。此外就是要稍微留意下句法上的问题。

chaliaUID: 2589767

2# taotaole

这篇文章说我在听666讲argu之前写的..

跟会议的内容没有必然联系... 我的文章顺序.. 是我自己第一次想这么写..不知道到底这样好不好...不过也算是尝试了~

chaliaUID: 2589767

谢谢 taotaole 的修改~~ 学到了不少~ thanks~!   以下是我的修改版~


1. 增加库存不一定会使office-supply department 成为最盈利的部门
A.库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。
B.没有将这一部门和其他部门进行详细的比较，只是说明了这一部门的增长，不一定就比其他部门的利润高。
2.在家的办公量的增加不意味着对机器的需求量会增加，没有必然联系。
3. survey 的问题



In this memo the business manger claims that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of V by augmenting its inventories of both home office machines and office supplies. To validate this assertion, the business manger quotes a survey which reveals that more and more people nowadays have been required to taking unfinished work back home than before. Scrutinizing examination of each the supporting evidence, however, the argument reveals that none of them lend credible support to the author’s allegation.


The major problem with this argument is that increase of stocks in both office supplies and office machines accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the assertion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable store in V.


To begin with, the enhancement of home office machines and office stationery do not necessarily indicate that the sales will increase similarly. The business manger overlooks a myriad of other possible factors which have great impact on the volume of sales, such as the quality of the product, the price and the after-sale service. In short, without ruling out other possible factors that might contribute to the sales of a product, the manager cannot convince me on the basis of the increase of inventory.

taotaole: 这里的分析觉得有些问题。你的观点是：库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。但是考虑作者的这一推论是怎么来的：因为他根据调查的情况做了市场需求增加的预期，从而为此增加供给量，保证销售量提升，增加盈利。这里的分析提供的思路却是单纯立足最终结论，而把原文中的推理过程忽视了。还有，经营者通过自己的市场预期调整经营策略本身是合理的行为，关键应该在于这里的预期是否是可靠的，如果不是的话就会导致决策失误。所以分析重点应该是在得出结论的过程，如预期的获得；而不是结论本身~

这段我不是太理解…希望谁来帮我解答一下…><

Moreover, even if the sales in office-supply department will increase likewise, the manager unfairly assumes further that the office-supply department will surpass all other departments in V. The manager fails to make a sensible comparison between office-supply department and other departments. Comparing with others, it is entirely possible that the initial turnover in office-supply department is so small, that only a growth tendency in sales is far from enough to help the department to become the most profitable among all. Another possibility is that the one of the other department, for example grocery department, may have a more remarkable growth tendency than the office-supply department. Since the memo fails to account for this alternative explanation, the manager cannot make any sound claim that the office-supply department will become the most profitable department in V only by increasing the stocks.


Another point worth considering is that there is no evidence showing that people who are required to take more work back home indicate a larger market demand for home office machines or office stationery. In the world of connection, it is equally possible that most of the office clerks can finish their work by using personal computer through internet. That is to say, they do not need to prepare more stationery at home, or even buy the printers and paper shredders which seem to be an unnecessary expense for them. Since the business manager has not adequately responded to this concern, the fact that there are more people are required to take unfinished work home proves nothing about the increase demand for home office appliance.


Yet another problem with the memo involves is that the survey which suggests an upward trend of taking work back home is undependable. Firstly, the manager provides no evidence that the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall group of office clerks. Secondly, lacking the number of participants, it is possibly that people who respond to the survey is constituted an in sufficiently small sample compared to the overall group. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the manager cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusions that the sales of V are likely to increase dramatically.


In sum, as it stands the argument that the stocks in office-supply department should be expanded which will ultimately enable the department to become the most profitable one in V is wholly unpersuasive. To bolster it， the business manager must show more detail statistics of the survey. To better assess the suggestion， it would be useful to know whether there is a casual relationship between more requirement of taking work back home and the real purchase behavior of home office appliance. Also useful would be any information about other departments of the store that may help to justify whether a department will become the most profitable in V.

mintshUID: 2460474

~~晕，改的时候是在 TTL 的基础上改的，那CC 二稿好了，我再改一次吧

chaliaUID: 2589767

5# mintsh

没关系,你都改完了就甭麻烦啦~

不过TTL那一段说我论证问题的那里..我不是太懂哦..给我解释解释把...呜呜呜...><

taotaoleUID: 2694983

~~我来了……只是我个人想法而已，欢迎与我argue^

你的观点：库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。---观点单独来看是合理的，就是只看论断者的结论来否定错误。
但是考虑作者的这一推论是怎么来的：因为他根据调查的情况做了市场需求增加的预期，从而为此增加供给量，保证销售量提升，增加盈利。-----这个是对原文中那个manager的逻辑推理过程的分析，他的思路。
这里的分析（你的分析）提供的思路却是单纯立足最终结论，而把原文中的推理过程忽视了。---只考虑了推论结果，并且就这样结果进行否定，在否定时没有顾及其实manager的有些分析是正确的（比如说，他根据市场需求量增加[B]趋势来决策增加库存[A]。市场需求量是销售量的必要不充分条件）

manager的想法：survey——>[B]--->[A]
你的分析呈现的思路：[A]---x-->[B].因为，[A]与CDEF...相关。（感觉有点像互为因果的论证。）
还有，经营者通过自己的市场预期调整经营策略本身是合理的行为，（[B]--->[A]是合理的）关键应该在于这里的预期是否是可靠的，（错误在survey--->[B],）如果不是的话就会导致决策失误(所以[A]不对，最终conclusion 不对。)。所以分析重点应该是在得出结论的过程（--->），如预期的获得；而不是结论本身[A]

再看一遍，觉得你的分析也还是可以接受……那我只能说，我被这篇A的论证布局迷失了……感觉把思维倒置了~

AdelineShenUID: 2630498

不好意思我网络太差了，高级回复都打不开，前两天一直上不了网，只能从文章整体思路上给你一些建议：

你这篇文章的论证顺序完全倒过来了。
作者的思路是：
Survey→越来越多的人把工作带回家→家里的办公用品需求量会上升→VM应该乘机增加办公用品的库存量→在办公用品上的盈利会成为VM盈利最多的部门
我们进行argument论证的时候，是要一步步把这条逻辑链的箭头一根根打断。所以反驳的逻辑顺序应该是：
1.        Survey的可靠性（反驳survey→越老越多人把工作带回家）（关于对survey的论证，建议你再去看看版上一些前辈的精华贴，我是不喜欢反驳survey的，因为survey是背景，不应该被反驳，argument的重点是抓逻辑错误，不是去反驳背景和调查的可靠性，这种千篇一律没有技术含量的东西能不用就不要用，除非你真的找不出三个逻辑错误来反驳）
2.        即使真的有越来越多的人把工作带回家，办公用品的需求量也不一定上升（反驳第二个→）
3.        即使家里的办公用品需求量会上升，VM也不一定要增加库存量，可能大多数消费者不会选择VM的产品，也可能他们的库存量本来就足够容纳市场，（反驳第三个→）
4.        即使家里的办公用品需求量会上升并且VM通过增加办公用品库量获得了利润，办公用品部门也不一定是盈利最多的部门（反驳最后一个→）

第一段前面都是在重memo里面的话，除了告诉读者你要开始论证了，没有别的意义，而且memo里面的内容rater比你清楚，不需要这样去重复。开头的正确写法应该是直接指出文章的逻辑错误，而在说明文章逻辑错误的同时，暗示你自己这篇argument的论证顺序和结构，让rater看了一目了然。关于A的开头你可以去版上搜索666版主的argument开头那篇文章，里面介绍地很详细。

The major problem with this argument is that increase of stocks in both office supplies and office machines accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the assertion that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable store in V.

这段话放在这里做什么？如果这段话说明整篇文章的逻辑结构，那应该放到首段。你这个major problem给人感觉你就是要开始第一个逻辑错误点的论证了，可是你下面又是to begin with，这里你的行文结构明显出现混乱了。这句话建议再表达清楚些放到首段。

To begin with, the enhancement of home office machines and office stationery do not necessarily indicate that the sales will increase similarly. The business manger overlooks a myriad of other possible factors which have great impact on the volume of sales, such as the quality of the product, the price and the after-sale service. In short, without ruling out other possible factors that might contribute to the sales of a product, the manager cannot convince me on the basis of the increase of inventory.

taotaole: 这里的分析觉得有些问题。你的观点是：库存很大也不一定销量就大，销量与产品的质量，价格，售后服务等相关。但是考虑作者的这一推论是怎么来的：因为他根据调查的情况做了市场需求增加的预期，从而为此增加供给量，保证销售量提升，增加盈利。这里的分析提供的思路却是单纯立足最终结论，而把原文中的推理过程忽视了。还有，经营者通过自己的市场预期调整经营策略本身是合理的行为，关键应该在于这里的预期是否是可靠的，如果不是的话就会导致决策失误。所以分析重点应该是在得出结论的过程，如预期的获得；而不是结论本身~

这位同学分析的很对，你又把逻辑顺序倒过来了，题目说的是销量大→应该增加库存，而你这段论证的是库存大→销量大

下面的就不多讲了，因为你的逻辑顺序存在问题，就是文章的大结构存在问题，先把大结构改过来，每段的论证以后再慢慢提高，现在讲了你也消化不了~加油吧~

jingjingnvwu12UID: 2776299

支持楼上版主