Argument 45 球拍拍+分析+讨论 欢迎~

charlesAFAUID：2750393

Argument 45
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

Grounding on the fact about the report of global warm, the author concludes that the melted ice stop the deer crossing and thus they have little food. One step closer, the author also cites the report of declined deer from the hunter and therefore he or she draws a conclusion that the global warm cause the declined populations of deer. It appears reasonable.

However on further reflection, it reveals many fallacies. (1) Can the global warm really influence the ice melting? (2) If the old migration patterns cause the declined population of deer? (3) There may be other alternative explanations for the decreased of deer.


To begin with, the author point out the ice melting derived from global warm and therefore deer cannot across the sea. However, one must admit that the global warm is not the warm in Arctic, but in global. It might be the case that some certain district gets hot while the Arctic remains the same climate. So the global warm may not have any affect on the trend of Arctic climate. Without more details about Arctic climate getting hot, the hypothesis is not reliable.

Even if the global warm really bring about the ice melting, the fact that the deer cannot across the sea and they must change their habits does not mean that they will die because of no food. Another factor about the food on which they feed is warm. With the global warm, Arctic temperature is getting higher. For that reason, there may be the case that more plants the deer needed is appearing in Arctic. That is, the deer have no need to across the sea for finding food. In short, even they doesn’t follow the old migration pattern, they probably would not die of such reason.

In addition, the author fail to ruling out other alternative explanations for the decreased of deer. As is known to readers, the declined population of deer is reported by hunters. The hunters probably assumed that the deer is decreased due to they cannot hunt deer. But actually, the populations about deer may not change. Further more, perhaps, other natural enemy of deer increased somehow and thus deer in Arctic is endangered. Another reason is, the decline is due to some unpredictable disaster. The arguer’s reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that these and other possible scenarios are unlikely.

Overall, the argument, while it might be plausible at first, contains many flaws as mentioned above. A more specific about the relation between melting ice and global warm is needed in order to make the argument forceful. To further improve the argument, the author should make clear that the food on which deer feed are really decreased. Moreover, the arguer should also rules out other alternative explanations.

AdelineShenUID：2630498

这道属于argument中的难题了。

作者根据：1、猎人报告的鹿数量减少，2、全球变暖导致sea ice融化这两件事的同时发生——concurrency，推出不能按习惯迁移是鹿减少的原因

分析：
1.        鹿的数量可能并没有减少。猎人的报告的可信度有多大？猎人的活动范围是有限的，对鹿数量减少的结论只是出于观察和估计，并没有严格的数据统计；可能鹿只是减少了在猎人活动的范围内出现，实际上并没有减少。
2.        Deer迁徙的通道即ice可能并没有消失。Global warming只能说明全球变暖的趋势，是一个全球概念，但这不代表deer生活区的温度升高，即使升高也不一定导致deer迁徙通道的融化，即使在某些时刻真的融化了也不代表在deer迁徙的时间仍然是融化的。
3.        即使鹿的数量真的减少了，全球变暖也确实导致了鹿迁徙通道的ice融化了，也不一定就是迁徙的困难导致鹿的数量减少。可能鹿不迁徙或者按照其他路线迁徙也能存活下来，可能是其他的原因导致了鹿数量的减少，比如全球变暖导致的鹿的食物减少（植物难以生存），比如猎人对鹿的过度捕杀。

Grounding on the fact about the report of global warm, the author concludes that the melted ice stop the deer crossing and thus they have little food. One step closer(one step further), the author also cites the report of declined deer from the hunter and therefore he or she draws a conclusion that the global warm cause the declined populations of deer. It appears reasonable.

However on further reflection, it reveals many fallacies. (1) Can the global warm really influence the ice melting? (2) If the old migration patterns cause the declined population of deer?(if 只能引导从句，语法错误) (3) There may be other alternative explanations for the decreased of deer.

第一，这两段没有必要分开，应该并为一段作开头；第二，首段应该直截了当以最简洁清晰的语言指出题目中的逻辑错误，最好能暗示下文论证的逻辑顺序。关于开头的写法可以搜索666版主的argument开头那篇帖子，你会有所启发的。

To begin with, the author point out the ice melting derived from global warm and therefore deer cannot across the sea.（这句话全是语法错误，各个段落的TS非常重要，应该直截了当指出你本段要反驳的观点，不需要去说题目怎么怎么说，这个rater比你清楚，你只要直接指出题目的逻辑错误点在哪里就可以了） However, one must admit that the global warm is not the warm in Arctic, but in global. It might be the case that some certain district gets hot while the Arctic remains the same climate. So the global warm may not have any affect on the trend of Arctic climate. Without more details about Arctic climate getting hot, the hypothesis is not reliable.

Even if the global warm really bring about the ice melting, the fact that the deer cannot across the sea and they must change their habits does not mean that they will die because of no food.（这里突然说food，rater看了这句话肯定看不懂你这段要反驳什么，而看到后面才知道你这段是说可能因为全球变暖导致当地植物增多鹿不需要经过迁徙就可以获得足够的食物，所以鹿的数量不会减少，但是这在你的TS里完全看不出来。记住TS一定要能概括这一段的主要论证点，后面你是在develop your idea in the TS. ） Another factor about the food on which they feed is warm. With the global warm, Arctic temperature is getting higher. For that reason, there may be the case that more plants the deer needed is appearing in Arctic. That is, the deer have no need to across the sea for finding food. In short, even they doesn’t follow the old migration pattern, they probably would not die of such reason.
这一段的论证在全文结构中逻辑上存在问题，思路比较混乱，建议换TS，参看我上面的对全文论证的分析

In addition, the author fail to ruling out other alternative explanations for the decreased of deer. As is known to readers, the declined population of deer is reported by hunters. The hunters probably assumed that the deer is decreased due to they cannot hunt deer. But actually, the populations about deer may not change. Further more, perhaps, other natural enemy of deer increased somehow and thus deer in Arctic is endangered. Another reason is, the decline is due to some unpredictable disaster. The arguer’s reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that these and other possible scenarios are unlikely.

Overall, the argument, while it might be plausible at first, contains many flaws as mentioned above. A more specific about the relation between melting ice and global warm is needed in order to make the argument forceful. To further improve the argument, the author should make clear that the food on which deer feed are really decreased. Moreover, the arguer should also rules out other alternative explanations.  

整篇文章的结构和论证的逻辑顺序需要重新调整。语言上语法错误还比较多，自己找语法好的人多给你辅导辅导。

charlesAFAUID：2750393

我做了些更正，但是没有改动结构，原因如下：
我认为
作者的论据有以下几条
A1 hunter报告鹿的数量减少了
A2 global warm -> ice melt
A3 food 只在 warm地区
A4 deer通过migration 寻找 food
而作者的结论是 global warm-> deer decrease
得到这一结论的推论是
H： ice melt-> cannot cross -> no food ->deer 饿死

我的提纲出发点是
A2 是不正确的推导 全局推地区
A3 恰好可以否定掉A4 因此直接否定掉这一部分的推论cannot cross -> no food ->deer 饿死
Hunter的报告是否accurate 直接否定了结论 有主客观因素

我想的这个提纲是基于这个推论来反驳原命题的，我开头的第一句话就是这个推论H： ice melt-> cannot cross -> no food ->deer 饿死

PS：

666大叔or大姐的帖子，我拜读了，很受启发。但是我认为并非是直接指出错误即可

还是有必要先把自己对作者的思路简短地复述下比较合适。因为并不是所有人对这个逻辑关系的理解都一致，有些范文里就有作者曾经自己加入了限定词，所以我觉得复述是有必要，体现对题目的理解，可能我的文章表述不清吧，语法错误确实很多，我基础差。分段的理由就是把对作者的理解与其中存在的错误分开。不知道这样好不好，有篇范文倒是这个结构。

以下是修改过的，另外想知道，我这个文章能不能把我上述分析体现出来呢？多谢！
Grounding on the fact about the report of global warm, the author concludes that the melted ice stop the deer crossing and thus they have little food. One step closer(one step further), the author also cites the report of declined deer from the hunter and therefore he or she draws a conclusion that the global warm cause the declined populations of deer. It appears reasonable.

However on further reflection, it reveals many fallacies. (1) Can the global warm really influence the ice melting? (2)Does the change of
old migration patterns really cause the declined population of deer?(if 只能引导从句，语法错误) (3) There may be other alternative explanations for the hunter’s report about decreased of deer.

To begin with, the author falsely point out that the melting ice derived from global warm（这句话全是语法错误，各个段落的TS非常重要，应该直截了当指出你本段要反驳的观点，不需要去说题目怎么怎么说，这个rater比你清楚，你只要直接指出题目的逻辑错误点在哪里就可以了One must admit that the global warm is not the warm in Arctic, but in global. It might be the case that some certain district gets hot while the Arctic remains the same climate. So the global warm may not have any affect on the trend of Arctic climate. Without more details about Arctic climate getting hot, the hypothesis is not reliable.


Even if the global warm really bring about the ice melting, the fact that the deer cannot travel over the sea and they must change their habits does not mean that they will die because of no food.（这里突然说food，rater看了这句话肯定看不懂你这段要反驳什么，而看到后面才知道你这段是说可能因为全球变暖导致当地植物增多鹿不需要经过迁徙就可以获得足够的食物，所以鹿的数量不会减少，但是这在你的TS里完全看不出来。记住TS一定要能概括这一段的主要论证点，后面你是在develop your idea in the TS. ）As the argument refered, the factor about the food on which they feed is warm area. With the global warm, Arctic temperature is getting higher. For that reason, there may be the case that more plants the deer needed is appearing in Arctic. That is, the deer have no need to across the sea for finding food. In short, even they doesn’t follow the old migration pattern, they probably would not die of such reason.

In addition, the author fail to ruling out other alternative explanations for the decreased of deer. As is known to readers, the declined population of deer is reported by hunters. The hunters probably assumed that the deer is decreased due to they cannot hunt deer. But actually, the populations about deer may not change. Further more, perhaps, other natural enemy of deer increased somehow and thus deer in Arctic is endangered. Another reason is, the decline is due to some unpredictable disaster. The arguer’s reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that these and other possible scenarios are unlikely.

Overall, the argument, while it might be plausible at first, contains many flaws as mentioned above. A more specific about the relation between melting ice and global warm is needed in order to make the argument forceful. To further improve the argument, the author should make clear that the food on which deer feed are really decreased. Moreover, the arguer should also rules out other alternative explanations.  

AdelineShenUID：2630498

To begin with, the author falsely point out that the melting ice derived from global warm.你这句话的意思是：作者错误地指出冰的融化是由于全球变暖，也就是你是在承认全球变暖的前提下说这句话的，而显然你想表达的不是这个意思。
可以写：the author falsely points out that the ice over which the deer can travel is melting because of global warming.

AdelineShenUID：2630498

另外，我从题目中看不出A3 food 只在 warm地区
                      A4 deer通过migration 寻找 food
这两个结论，感觉只是你的主观猜测吧，可能他们迁徙不是为了食物而是别的原因呢？可能他们春天夏天秋天生长在那个有植物的比较暖的地方，冬天迁徙到另外的地方只是因为太冷了呢？建议你还是不要冒这个风险。

charlesAFAUID：2750393

原题中有这样一句话
Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.

areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed
说得是A3
后面的半句cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.


之所以这么找是觉得找隐含前提攻击更合理些
另外
derive from
和
because of
记住了，谢谢
5# AdelineShen

zzhen_1987UID：2518911

受教了，谢谢 6# charlesAFA