argument 53~ 猛烈球拍~有拍必回~~~

panpancxUID：2762057

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.


The arguer concludes higher level of melatonin during pregnancy results in shyness of infancy and even later life. It is supported by the study of 25 infants who show signs of mild distress under unfamiliar aura, having more possibility to be conceived in early autumn when melatonin increases; and a following study showing their distress of shyness. After close scrutiny of the argument, it is unconvincing to draw the conclusion as stated below.

The writer firstly fails to judge the accuracy and validity of the study. Is the number of 25 infants enough to represent all the distressed infants? Hardly could we reach conclusion just relying on such few subjects. And how much more does the term "more likely" show the possibility of infants conceived in early autumn? It is entirely possible that the number of these children is one or two more than the average, that is to say, only 7 or 8 infants among the 25 are conceived during that time. Moreover, the following study lacks the detailed portion of how many of these children are distressed with the term “more than hale”, which could be only 51 percents of them. Without larger group of such subjects and the detailed portions about the early autumn conceived infants and distressed teenagers, the research study cannot be valid to support the conclusion.

Even granted the writer could provide more subjects and all of them are in accord with the study, it is groundless to assume increased melatonin in the early autumn is the only influential factor of infants’ distress. If the assumption is correct, we know daylight decreases to the lowest in winter, what is the situation about the infants conceived during that time? Without convincing answer of this question, we cannot believe the hypothesis to be true. There could be other factors leading to distress of infants. Possibly the weather gets colder in early autumn, the pregnant parent do not have enough food and nutrients during that time, and even parents of these babies are also distressed could account for the situation. Take the last one as example, there can be possibility that distress could pass on by generations by inheriting certain kind of genes, which makes babies showing signs of mild distress and even in their teenage life. If other factors are not ruled out, it is too arbitrary to make the conclusion.

Finally, the arguer falsely relies on the assumption that teenagers self identification of shyness reflects their distress, and extends the meaning of shyness. Perhaps shyness is normal around the children in their teenage years, resulting from their increasing knowledge about themselves, knowing they are surely inferior to others in certain fields. And the personal experience of kids’ childhood could also affect their attitudes in socialize. It is entirely possible that such kind of shyness is not a result of increased level of melatonin and even not reflecting distress. And the writer may intentionally mix the two word “distress” and “shyness”. Lacking information about the childhood experiences and their peers’ situation—whether they are similar of shyness, we cannot trust the conclusion.

To sum up, the writer should provide detailed statistics about the research study; preclude other factors which are likely to cause distress of babies; information about their teenage situation of shyness reflecting distress and differentiating the two terms.

AdelineShenUID：2630498

原文逻辑链：
1.
13年前25个婴儿的一项研究显示对不熟悉的刺激物有轻微distress迹象的婴儿，more lilely是在秋天出生的，秋天正是他们的母亲产生M这种会影响她们大脑功能的荷尔蒙的时候。
2.
今年的跟踪研究中，超过一半的那个时候有轻微distress迹象的婴儿长成的青少年认为自己shy
→ 3. 由1，2推出：孩子出生前M的增加导致了婴儿时期的shyness，并且这种shyness一直持续到后来的生活当中
逻辑错误攻击点：
1.
Study没有说服力:一项13年前做的仅仅对25个婴儿的分析明显没有足够的说服力。首先，婴儿的数量太少；其次，婴儿本身的其他条件是否相似，如果婴儿之间个体差异很大，sample就没有代表性，study就更不可信。
2.
即使study可信，秋天母亲产生M+表现出mild distress的婴儿more likely在秋天出生≠M的增加导致了婴儿时期的shyness
首先，mild distress不一定是shyness的表现，可能是自然地生理反应；
其次，秋天母亲产生M不一定跟婴儿的mild distress的表现有关，可能M只对母亲有作用而对婴儿没影响，可能是其他因素导致了mild distress比如其他的激素或者秋天的天气因素等等。
3.
即使婴儿时期确实由M引起了婴儿的shyness，也不代表这种shyness会延续到之后的生活中。性格的形成跟人的成长经历、生活环境相关，可能shyness完全是由环境引起的，而不是婴儿时的shyness延续的结果。


The arguer concludes higher level of melatonin during pregnancy results in shyness of infancy and even later life. It is supported by the study of 25 infants who show signs of mild distress under unfamiliar aura, having more possibility to be conceived in early autumn when melatonin increases; and a following study showing their distress of shyness. After close scrutiny of the argument, it is unconvincing to draw the conclusion as stated below.（这句话有点问题，建议整句修改）
开头还是不错的，前面概括的也比较清晰完整，关于A的开头建议去看看666版主的Argument开头那篇文章，可能会有所启发。

The writer firstly fails to judge the accuracy and validity of the study. Is the number of 25 infants enough to represent all the distressed infants? Hardly could we reach conclusion just relying on such few subjects. And how much more does the term "more likely" show the possibility of infants conceived in early autumn? It is entirely possible that the number of these children is one or two more than the average, that is to say, only 7 or 8 infants among the 25 are conceived during that time. Moreover, the following study lacks the detailed portion of how many of these children are distressed with the term “more than hale”, which could be only 51 percents of them. Without larger group of such subjects and the detailed portions about the early autumn conceived infants and distressed teenagers, the research study cannot be valid to support the conclusion.
对study的分析很到位~

Even granted the writer could provide more subjects and all of them are in accord with the study, it is groundless to assume increased melatonin in the early autumn is the only influential factor of infants’ distress.
If the assumption is correct, we know daylight decreases to the lowest in winter, what is the situation about the infants conceived during that time?（这句话去掉，文章只是让你分析秋天的情况，冬天的情况我们不管，这个离开逻辑线了） Without convincing answer of this question, we cannot believe the hypothesis to be true.（这句也一样的，去掉）
There could be other factors leading to distress of infants. Possibly the weather gets colder in early autumn, the pregnant parent do not have enough food and nutrients during that time, and even parents of these babies are also distressed could account for the situation（语法错误）. Take the last one as（for） example, there can be possibility that distress could pass on by generations by inheriting certain kind of genes, which makes babies showing signs of mild distress and even in their teenage life. If other factors are not ruled out, it is too arbitrary to make the conclusion（what conclusion?末句说清楚）.
除了中间关于winter的小问题，论证也基本清晰，他因也举得不错，关于逻辑错误点的论证还可以参看我上面的分析。

Finally, the arguer falsely relies on the assumption that teenagers self identification of shyness reflects their distress, and extends the meaning of shyness.（如果你这句是TS，那你下面的很多论证都不是为这个TS服务的，其实这句话只是你TS的一个论证点而已。你的TS应该是：即使婴儿时期确实由M引起了婴儿的shyness，也不代表这种shyness会延续到之后的生活中。论证一，可能那些青少年所谓的shyness根本就不存在；论证二，可能shyness根本就不是M引起的，比如是因为成长环境等）Perhaps shyness is normal around the children in their teenage years, resulting from their increasing knowledge about themselves, knowing they are surely inferior to others in certain fields. And the personal experience of kids’ childhood could also affect their attitudes in socialize. It is entirely possible that such kind of shyness is not a result of increased level of melatonin and even not reflecting distress. And the writer may intentionally mix the two word “distress” and “shyness”.（这个论证就比较乱了，建议把这句话放到上一段） Lacking information about the childhood experiences and their peers’ situation—whether they are similar of shyness, we cannot trust the conclusion.

To sum up, the writer should provide detailed statistics about the research study; preclude other factors which are likely to cause distress of babies; information about their teenage situation of shyness reflecting distress and differentiating the two terms.

panpancxUID：2762057

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

Grounding on the study of 25 infants and their later life of teenager, supposing the early autumn conceived time leads to the distress, and synthesize these two assumptions with the fact that the pregnant mother’s production of melatonin increases in early autumn, the arguer concludes higher level of melatonin during pregnancy results in shyness of infancy and even later life. However, after close scrutiny of the argument, I find the survey insufficient and the reasoning unconvincing to draw the conclusion as three points stated below.
(这个开头参照666大人的开头范例~ Adeline觉得可行不？)
（下面这个是原来的开头改了最后一句~）
The arguer concludes higher level of melatonin during pregnancy results in shyness of infancy and even later life. It is supported by the study of 25 infants who show signs of mild distress under unfamiliar aura, having more possibility to be conceived in early autumn when melatonin increases; and a following study showing their distress of shyness. However, after close scrutiny of the argument, I find the survey insufficient and the reasoning unconvincing to draw the conclusion as three points stated below.

The writer firstly fails to judge the accuracy and validity of the study. （Adeline的颜色标记没看懂~ 是这个TS不对吗？) Is the number of 25 infants enough to represent all the distressed infants? Hardly could we believe the survey results just relying on such few subjects. Secondly, the author does not provide detailed statistics, showing how much more percent does the term "more likely" show the possibility of infants conceived in early autumn. It is entirely possible that the number of these children is one or two more than the average, that is to say, only 7 or 8 infants among the 25 are conceived during that time. Moreover, the following study lacks the detailed portion of how many of these children are distressed with the term “more than half”, which could be only 1 percents more than half. Without a group of more subjects and the detailed portions about the early autumn conceived infants and distressed teenagers, the research study cannot be valid to support the conclusion.


Even granted the writer could provide more subjects and all of them are in accord with the study, it is groundless to assume increased melatonin in the early autumn is the only influential factor of infants’ distress. If the assumption is correct, we know daylight decreases to the lowest in winter, what is the situation about the infants conceived during that time? Without convincing answer of this question, we cannot believe the hypothesis to be true. There could be other factors leading to distress of infants. Possibly the weather gets colder in early autumn, the pregnant parent do not have enough food and nutrients during that time, and even parents of these babies signs of distress could account for infants’ distress. 语法错误 Take the last one for example, there can be possibility that distress could pass on by generations by inheriting certain kind of genes, which makes babies showing signs of mild distress and even in their teenage life. If other factors are not ruled out, it is too arbitrary to make the conclusion that increased melatonin brought by decreased daylight in early autumn causes distress. （what conclusion?末句说清楚）.

Finally, the arguer falsely relies on the assumption that melatonin leads to these infants’ later teenage life’s distress and extends the meaning of “shyness” to indicate “distress”. (重新改写的TS)（如果你这句是TS，那你下面的很多论证都不是为这个TS服务的，其实这句话只是你TS的一个论证点而已。你的TS应该是：即使婴儿时期确实由M引起了婴儿的shyness，也不代表这种shyness会延续到之后的生活中。论证一，可能那些青少年所谓的shyness根本就不存在；论证二，可能shyness根本就不是M引起的，比如是因为成长环境等）Perhaps shyness is normal around the children in their teenage years, resulting from their increasing knowledge about themselves, knowing they are surely inferior to others in certain fields. And the personal experience of kids’ childhood could also affect their attitudes in socialize. It is entirely possible that such kind of shyness is not a result of increased level of melatonin and even not reflecting distress. And the writer unconsciously or intentionally mixes the two word “distress” and “shyness”. He/she does not provide further details supporting these two terms equate each other.  Lacking information about the childhood experiences and their peers’ situation—whether they are similar of shyness, we cannot trust the conclusion.

To sum up, the writer should provide detailed statistics about the research study; preclude other factors which are likely to cause distress of babies; information about their teenage situation of shyness reflecting distress and differentiating the two terms.

AdelineShenUID：2630498

开头其实没大改动，66那个当场写是比较花时间的，因为你要理一下所有的逻辑错误并在第一段里简单地概括出来，为下文的论证做铺垫，是有一定难度的。如果时间不够照你这样写也可以了，关键还是后面的论证~