Argument38 首次尝试

qisaimanUID: 2703629

The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 323
TIME: 00:40:00
DATE: 2010-2-13 12:37:32

The argument suggests that the daily use of lchthaid can prevent colds and therefore lower absenteeism in schools and works. And the reasoning is like that: a study shows that in East Meria , people eat a lot of fish and visit the doctor only once or twice per year for cold. There are many holes in the reasoning, which make the suggestion little convincing.
First of all, the arguments assume that colds is the most important reasons resulting in the absenteeism without any further evidence. Reasons given by those who are absent may not be the real one. It is a common sense that people sometimes lie for numerous reasons, including privacy consideration or just an excuse. Hence , less real colds may not automatically promise less absenteeism.
Meanwhile, the arguments falsely assume that there is causal link in the East Meria between less colds and high consumption. There are many other factors what could contribute to the cold caught by the residents, such as climate, diet habit and the exercise. Probably the fish consumption is not the primary reason, and consequently eating a substantial amount of fish will not lend much help to preventing colds. Moreover, the study in East Meria cannot be applied in any other places without considering the different features of the target .
Even if the high consumption of fish is the main reason for less cold, the nutritional supplement derived from the fish oil do not necessarily have the same function. There is no grounded clinical evidence showing that the fish oil can prevent cold. It is possible that when the lchthaid is derived, the essence of fish for cold, if there is any, has been destroyed.
In the end, the argument fails to provide substantial evidences showing that the fish or the lchthaid derived from the fish oil can prevent cold, and the cold is the main reason for the absence.