ARGUMENT25 by Misir 第九次作业（哪天才能成功限时吖。。。）

misirUID: 2684938

TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 - The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
WORDS: 326 |438
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/2/25 17:59:59

The conclusion that Hopewell should implement the same policy as Ocean View seems obvious at first glance, however, it cannot stand up to scrutiny as I will discuss below.

To begin with, the author makes a false cause- effect relationship between the booming economic in Ocean View and the policy it takes. Although the tourism has increased, the new businesses have opened, and the tax revenues have risen, there is no evidence that all of which is caused by the new built municipal golf course and resort hotel.
The author ignores other possibilities that can cause the same results. For instance, Ocean View recently brings in some advanced technology to make the society more environmentally friendly.
The water becomes clearer, the air fresher, and the newspaper reports this new event to attract more tourists to come here for sightseeing. Or perhaps, the government releases a new economic policy to attract businessmen to invest here. Therefore, either scenario, if true, will weaken the author's assumption that the booming economy and the new entertainment facilities have a cause- effect relationship.

In addition, even assuming that the booming economy is caused by the new built golf course and resort hotel, the author still makes a mistake of false analogy between Hopewell and Ocean View. The two places may share different economic situations as well as different ecosystems, that is to say, the landscape in Hopewell is not so beautiful to attract tourists and a new municipal golf course and resort hotel can do no good to Hopewell but wasting money. Another possibility is Hopewell already has adequate golf courses and resort hotels, to build a new one will only increase the competition with each company which may lead to bad results like vicious competition. Thus, the author should provide more information about the two towns to make a better analogy.

Finally, even assuming that the two towns share a similar background, the author cannot claims that they will share the same result. In the argument, it is said that Ocean View implemented the policy two years ago, so it is entirely possible that this policy has lose its effect nowadays. Or, the same policy may not have the same result in Ocean View and Hopewell. As a result, the author should take the issue of time into account to make the claim more persuasive.

In sum, to make the conclusion logically acceptable, the author should take alternative explanations of the booming economy, and make a better comparison between the two towns to make sure what is similar and different between the two, and consider other ways to improve the tax revenues.

missingusaUID: 2625832

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