Argument21 最后10天，欢迎指教【已自改】

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT21 - The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
WORDS: 434
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/2/25 16:02:58

Grounding on the fact that Sartorian has not offered an alpaca overcoat for 5 years and their major competitor have given up making such overcoat, the author makes an assertion that their deluxe alpaca overcoat should sell very well. And combining with the information that the price of most types of clothing has raised in each of the past five years, then reaching the inference that customers would be willing to pay higher prices for the overcoat than they did five years ago. Thus the author suggests that their company should resume production that overcoat. However, some necessary analysis about the market needs has been neglect and some baseless assumptions have been made which make the argument invalid.

To begin with, some fallacies in the grounds which may weak the reasoning process towards the premise that the deluxe alpaca overcoats would sell well have committed. As the author claims, they discontinued production of such overcoat due to the lack of reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric. Although the fabric could be obtained now, the author neglects to consider the market needs of this kind of overcoat. Perhaps the overcoats were popular five years ago, but it is not to say that it would still be welcomed now. And tacking on the fact that their major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, it is probably that the overcoat has little attraction now, so the competitor stops producing it. To our common sense, people’s inclination on clothing style changes frequently.

Moreover, assuming that the deluxe alpaca overcoat would still be popular, other factors would probably block the process to the assertion that Sartorian’s overcoats would sell well. The author provides that their major competitor give up produce this coat, perhaps the competitor originally did not focus on such kind of overcoat, and they compete with Sartorian in other clothes. In this case, some other manufactures company which probably devote to this kind of overcoat would probably form a strong competence on Sartorian. And thus, Sartorian would possibly have no superior in marketing, and could not increase profits.

Finally, granted that the deluxe alpaca overcoats of Sartorian would actually popular again, it is not to say that they could benefit from the increasing of price as other clothing did. It is possibly that the price of this overcoat was in a high level 5 years ago, and during that time, their overcoats have superiority in both quality and style. However, perhaps other better overcoats which with a relevant low price have been made now and thus the increasing in price would probably leads to lose customers. Accordingly, merely based on this information on price would insufficient to come out the conclusion that their company’s profits will increase.

In sum, the author does not analysis the market needs as well as the competitive factors deliberately and maybe over estimates their products. If a deductive argument is sound, then that means that not only are all the inferences true, but the premises are also true. Hence, the conclusion is necessarily true.