【Clover】Argument25 by taotaole

taotaoleUID: 2694983

TOPIC: ARGUMENT25 -
WORDS: 235
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/2/25 21:19:31
限时只写了中间两段~很待加强啊！
In the argument above, the mayor of the town of Hopewell suggests to follow the success experience of the town of Ocean View by building golf course and resort hotel. He believes those actions can be helpful to the increase economy and additional tax revenues. However, the mayor’s hope through the similar measures of Ocean View is likely to fail because he makes fallacy assumption through all these.
A threshold problem for the mayor's suggestion is that he makes a wrong analogy between the two towns. He takes the analogy of Ocean View two years ago to apply nowadays Hopewell.
Firstly, he assumes the situation remains the same from past to the present even for the future. The success of Ocean View according to the application of golf course and resort hotel may be out of date and fails to contribute the town prosperity. Secondly, the two towns cannot be absolutely in the same condition. Diversity of the two towns will lead to different results even for the same stimulus action. The mayor should figure out the specific situation of his town before blindly believing the successful experience of other town.
Next, in the successful experience of the town of Ocean View, there are still problematic assumptions. During the next two years after the measures of golf and hotel construction, the increasing tourism and new business are not certain for the construction. The mayor makes a post hoc fallacy here. There may be lots of contributes for the increase economy. For example, the town of Ocean View may have established the policy emphasizing on tourism including the golf course and hotel building and nationwide campaign. While the mayor sees the golf part only, regardless of other central measures. Therefore, it is doubtful that how much the result of the surface imitation can be.
Moreover, the purpose of the mayor to improve Hopewell’s economy and generate additional tax revenues relies on the unwarranted assumption between new business and revenues rise. The tourism is just part of economy, and the economy is changing through various factors. The new-opened business there are not provides sufficient information to be success. What’s more, the statistics of the thirty percent tax revenues rise is not strong enough for the true picture. The extra tax increase may be from the traditional industry rather than the stimulus tourism area, or the government change the way of taxing. The mayor has to investigate the detail information of the Ocean View before trying to change his town.
After all, the mayor makes a wrongly analogy between the town of Hopewell and the town of Ocean View in the suggestion to achieve better economy and tax revenues. His hope for his town can be understood, but we suggest that he make the new measure with reliable basis and convincing experience.

桔子susanUID: 2754084

In the argument above, the mayor of the town of Hopewell suggests to follow the success experience of the town of Ocean View by building golf course and resort hotel. He believes those actions can be helpful to the increase economy and additional tax revenues.（我喜欢这种比较简单的开头）However, the mayor’s hope through the similar measures of Ocean View is likely to fail because he makes fallacy assumption through all these.

A threshold problem for the mayor's suggestion is that he makes a wrong analogy between the two towns. He takes the analogy of Ocean View two years ago to apply nowadays Hopewell.
Firstly, he assumes the situation remains the same from past to the present even for the future. The success of Ocean View according to the application of golf course and resort hotel may be out of date and fails to contribute the town prosperity.（时间问题我没有想到，好想法）
Secondly, the two towns cannot be absolutely in the same condition. Diversity of the two towns will lead to different results even for the same stimulus action. The mayor should figure out the specific situation of his town before blindly believing the successful experience of other town.（点都有提出，但论证都一句话代过了。比如第二点就可以深入分析一下两地不同会有什么影响）

Next, in the successful experience of the town of Ocean View, there are still problematic assumptions. During the next two years after the measures of golf and hotel construction, the increasing tourism and new business are not certain for the construction. The mayor makes a post hoc fallacy here. There may be lots of contributes for the increase economy. For example, the town of Ocean View may have established the policy emphasizing on tourism including the golf course and hotel building（这里就不要提到golf course and hotel building了吧，你要证明的不就是这两项不一定是主要原因吗？我认为只列举其它原因就好） and nationwide campaign. （这里可以加一句，thus the tourist may mainly attracted by nationwide campaign ,but not…之类的来完善论证）While the mayor sees the golf part only, regardless of other central measures. Therefore, it is doubtful that how much the result of the surface imitation can be.

Moreover, the purpose of the mayor to improve Hopewell’s economy and generate additional tax revenues relies on the unwarranted assumption between new business and revenues rise. The tourism is just part of economy, and the economy is changing through various factors. The new-opened business there are not provides sufficient information to be success. What’s more, the statistics of the thirty percent tax revenues rise is not strong enough for the true picture. The extra tax increase may be from the traditional industry rather than the stimulus tourism area, or the government change the way of taxing.（你的TS是说这些措施促进H的经济，而这里的举例有是OV的，貌似不合适，还是从当地可能发生的状况来分析比较好）
The mayor has to investigate the detail information of the Ocean View before trying to change his town.

After all, the mayor makes a wrongly analogy between the town of Hopewell and the town of Ocean View in the suggestion to achieve better economy and tax revenues. His hope for his town can be understood, but we suggest that he make the new measure with reliable basis and convincing experience.