argument35 游戏的销量 求拍，有拍必回~

爱上千年的猫UID: 2476232

Argument 35
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent
survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The
survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video
game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which
require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with
an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most
likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to
increase dramatically in the next few months."

天。。。为什么我老是不能限时成功！！！

The author predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months after two years declining, since it has just introduced several games, which seem to be the best choices of game players according to a recent survey. The argument is flawed in several aspects that render it unconvincing as it stands.

First of all, the base on which the author makes the prediction is a recent survey. The survey asked video-game players about the most important features in a preferable game. However, the author does not offer any information about how many players are being asked, and under what conditions the answers are obtained. Lacking such information, I can not be convinced that the result of the survey is reliable.

Secondly, even if the survey is reliable and the most important feature is really lifelike graphics, there still exists a problem. The author says that Whirlwind has just introduced several "such" games. How do we know "such" games are exactly the games that have satisfactory lifelike graphics, as video-game players list as most important feature? Even if "such" games do have satisfactory lifelike graphics, there is no sign that can prove that other factors involved in a video game make no difference. For example, the theme and sound effects also contribute a lot to a successful video-game. Without ruling out other factors' importance, we can not conclude that the newly introduced games will be loved by the players.

Yet, even if these newly introduced games receive good comment from players, it does not necessarily mean that the sales will increase dramatically. Consider, if the themes of these games can only arouse the interests of boy players, it will certainly lost many girl players. Or, as it says that these games require the most up-to-date computers, these games will certainly not be accepted by the players who do not possess the latest computer. All these possibilities can have great effect on the sales of Whirlwind.

In sum, to better assess this argument, the author would better provide more information to make the survey reliable. Also, it would be useful to demonstrate these games really have all the factors to become welcomed by players. Also would be useful to prove that other possibility will have no effect on the sales of Whirlwind.

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貌似这个是ARGU147?话说楼主后期的ARGU写作水平明显上升。

俺在见老板和见老师的夹缝里了一篇，果然高估了自己。写完发现两个问题：第一限时失败，第二漏了一个点：游戏要求配置高，未必是广告定位那个年龄层断的人可以afford的。第三，自己看怎么看怎么有点又臭又长的味道。

猫同学帮俺看看吧。

The author asserts that the sales of Whirlwind video game will be recovered soon and even enjoy a dramatic increase based on a recent survey upon video-game players’ most interested feature, which right meet the feature of the latest released product of Whirlwind. He further uses the company’s extensive advertising activity of targeting at youngsters between 10 to 25 years old to support the anticipated dramatic rise in Whirlwind’s product selling. At first glance the cause and effect analysis sounds logical; however, I found it suffers from several flaws in terms of statistical problem and unconvincing assumption, which will be refuted as follows:
First, the whole conclusion was supported by a vague survey. There is no information about sampling size and selection process thus it’s entirely possible that the survey was just done by a few people. Hence it ruined the reliability of this survey and it won’t be convincing to represent the taste of all video-game players, not to say specifically for the potential market of Whirlwind.
Second, even if the statistical problem can be ignored, and can admit there is common feature between the survey result and Whirlwind’s new products, we still cannot draw out the conclusion since, without knowing the age group of survey receiver and their willingness to purchase new video-game product recently, there is no evidence to support there is fitness between the surveyed sample and Whirlwind’s target market (10 to 25 years old people), let alone the time issue.
Moreover, even we can accept the above deduction, the author still have to rule out other possible factors to prove that Whirlwind’s promotion is efficient enough to attain such a large portion of potential market shortly and can prevent any other company’s success by launching the same products.
Besides, the decline of Whirlwind’s selling over the past two years may not be caused solely by the misdirection of their previous products, but also by some other reasons such as the inefficient operation and revenue management capability of the company’s manage team. It could minimize the positive effects of make the right product and consequently, constraint the company’s performance to reverse dramatically within a short period of time.
In sum, to make the conclusion sound, the author should first make sure of the validity and reliability of the survey. He also has to provide solid evidence to prove the ideal effects of the company’s advertising movement can be achieved shortly. Finally, only to rule out any other possible causes which may minimize the positive impacts of marketing strategies can make the conclusion soundly.

爱上千年的猫UID: 2476232

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鸭子，帮你看了看~~
主要问题是：1长句过长，影响理解；2个别表述不够简练，argu字数没有像issue那么高，适当简练一点也可以的咯~~
具体的都在段落里标记了，基本属于硬抠出来的，鸭子你参考就可以了~


The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"①Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. ②The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. ③According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. ④Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. ⑤It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
我重新审题是这样的：②（调查可靠性）+③+④（新游戏是否真的符合特性，年龄层与被调查者是否吻合，目标消费者是否有最先进的电脑）——①（过去两年的失败是因为没有对的产品？）⑤（广告是否有效，是否可能在几个月内实现）

The author asserts that the sales of Whirlwind video game will be recovered soon and even enjoy a dramatic increase based on a recent survey upon video-game players’ most interested feature, which right meet the feature of the latest released product of Whirlwind. He further uses the company’s extensive advertising activity of targeting at youngsters between 10 to 25 years old to support the anticipated dramatic rise in Whirlwind’s product selling. At first glance the cause and effect analysis sounds logical; however, I found it suffers from several flaws in terms of statistical problem and unconvincing assumption, which will be refuted as follows:


First, the whole conclusion was supported by a vague survey. There is no information about sampling size and selection process thus it’s entirely possible that the survey was just done by a few people（直接说was statistically unconvincing或者only covered a small group of people会不会感觉比较好）. Hence it ruined the reliability of this survey and it won’t be (直接用therefore感觉更简练，前面是it ruined了) unconvincing to represent the taste of all video-game players, not to say specifically for the potential market of Whirlwind.
谬误1：调查不可信

Second, even if the statistical problem can be ignored(我觉得最好还是让步一下，承认数据是可信的更好，毕竟忽略它不代表它不存在), and can admit there is common feature between the survey result and Whirlwind’s new products（这句感觉好像没有主语，不如写成the common feature between the survey result and Whirlwind’s new products does exist）, we still cannot draw out the conclusion since, without knowing the age group of survey receivers and their willingness to purchase new video-game product recently, there is no evidence to support there is fitness between the surveyed sample and Whirlwind’s target market (10 to 25 years old people), let alone the time issue.(这个长句的阅读难度直逼GRE阅读了- -|||，鸭子，改成2个短句吧，从without knowing前断开)
谬误2：调查者的年龄层和最近的购买欲未知——调查者和目标市场是否吻合未知

Moreover, even we can accept the above deduction（用被动式感觉比较顺，因为后面的句子有主语author，我也不知道这么讲通不通，就是感觉，汗。。。）, the author still have to rule out other possible factors to prove that Whirlwind’s promotion is efficient enough to attain such a large portion of potential market shortly and can prevent any other company’s success by launching the same products.（这段也是只有一个长句，把后一个可能性单独成句应该比较好）
谬误3：不能保证促销策略有效

Besides, the decline of Whirlwind’s selling over the past two years may not be caused solely by the misdirection of their previous products, but also by some other reasons such as the inefficient operation and revenue management capability of the company’s manage team. It could minimize the positive effects of make the right product and consequently, constraint the company’s performance to reverse dramatically within a short period of time.
谬误4：过去的失败不一定是之前产品的错

In sum, to make the conclusion sound, the author should first make sure of the validity and reliability of the survey. He also has to provide solid evidence to prove the ideal effects of the company’s advertising movement can be achieved shortly. Finally, only to rule out any other possible causes which may minimize the positive impacts of marketing strategies can make the conclusion soundly.

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猫，给你看我昨天和老师讨论的结果：

其实我自己也晓得写到最后已经有点跑题了，汗啊。汗啊。。。。。。。。

        一，句子又臭又长是我的经典毛病，一句一段常有的事，说明水平不够但是习惯还不好。（老师直接说ARGU最重要的还是找对点，理清楚逻辑，批驳有力到位，表达清晰易懂，至于写得是不是comprehensive句子是不是很漂亮那都是其次；何况时间有限，30分钟你叫我写的又好又快又准我也做不到，ft……）

        二， 我的最后一点跑题了；我钻牛角尖的把increase of sales理解成了increase of profit,所以才写出最后一点这种极品的跑题段落（以前还没太发生过此等糗事）。


        三， 全文没有直接提及lifelike graphic算是个小瑕疵（虽然勉强可以在第二和第三点找到支持，但至少属于不深透的范畴）

        四， 漏了一个非常重要的点，事件发生的时间轴：题目没有交代survey发生的时间/公司颁布新产品的时间/预计公司销售量取得巨大提升的时间 这三者间的关   系， 因此调查和销量提升不能构成直接因果关系。

        五， 我很喜欢用it指代，开头，句中，都经常出现；但比较多的情况下指代都不够明确。

        六， 最后总结段落竟然比前面主体段还要长……（老师说她无法想象我这篇文的时间和精力分布竟然是这样的）

        七， 个别地方的用词欠缺考虑，不准确或者水平低下：
         例一： do the survey(主语既可以是公司的人，也可以是受访者），前者应当成熟为conduct the survey之类主谓关系明确的动词（这个几乎是学术英语用烂了的词，说明自己掌握的还是不够）；
         例二：“thus it’s entirely possible that the survey was just done by a few people”，既长又不准确简练，可直接改为“the survey scale was limited to a few participants" .
         例三：“even we can accept the above deduction”， the above deduction是我自己做出的，author 最多是imply或者是视其为intermediate assumption,但是这样笼统的说给marker留下的影响就会非常不好。
         例四： fitness应为match；
         例五： same 应为similar.


“七宗罪”。时间轴的那处谬误令我受益匪浅。

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简单总结如果再写一遍对作者的逻辑分析和自己的语言组织，如下：
1. 作者论证过程如下：
1) players value lifelike grapic (support by survey)
2)W has A. feature of lifelike graphic, B. adv target at 10-25,
3) thus sales will rise dramatically, and within a short time.

辩驳：logical and statistical problem.
1. no information about the sequences of survey/release of new product/sales increase, thus there may not be cause-and-effect between sales rise and new product meet the feature of lifelike graphic or even the player's preference is possible to change to another within certain time (can't support the expectation of increasing sales );

2. assume, survey is conducted beforehand, however vague survey( no information about survey method, size, process )will still ruin the validity and reliability which make the conclusion unconvencing;

3. another fact to consider, even if survey is statistically valid and reliable, the participants of survey and the potential market of W may not the same,  (so the willigness and capability of its target market to purchase W's new products is doubtful, therefor it is entirely possible that the ad. campaign may not be effective to rise sales dramaticlly. let alone within a short period of time.

当然最好不要漏点，不过即使漏点，能把找到的全部说清楚应该也还是不功不过 -- 俺那位可爱的老太太的结论

爱上千年的猫UID: 2476232

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果然还是专业人士犀利呀~~~给我也有很大启发~~多谢分享哦~