Argument18 第⑦次练习，又跌出30mins了

HOHO小飞UID: 2686624

题目：ARGUMENT18 - The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
字数：525          用时：00:30:00          日期：2010-2-28 18:08:56
From this argument,the editorial asserts that Prunty County should restore the speed limit at 55 mph,because this limitation which keep the speed from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county road does not work recently.And the editorial also claims that Prunty County must increase lane widths and resurface rough roads to low the ratio of traffic accidents.To support that,the editorial provides a case of Butler Country which has take this successful action to decrease the accidents.However,the argument suffers from several logical flaws and is therefore unconvincing.
Firstly,the editorial unfairly assumes the fesibility of the conclusion that the limitation which restore the speed from 45 miles per hour to 55 has failed.There is a hypothesis that 45 mph is unsafety speed,but a major of drivers exceed 45 mph.And another one is the safety effort on the traffic condition which has sharply decrease the accident is effective,nevertheless,the ratio of accident  in Pruthy County has slightly reduced.These two hypothesis are fails to the editorial's conclusion.Untill the editoral provides further evidence to exclude all these concerns it is unfounded to assumes the speed restriction has failed.

Similarly,the editorial bases on a false analogy that the action which Butler Country do is appropriate to Prunty County.It is entirely possible that the measures in Butler County would not suffice to ensure similar sucess in elsewhere----due to the sort of factor mentioned above that might have contributed to the improved traffic condition in the Butler Country but would not come into play in Prunty County.The accidents occur in Bulter Country may be the objective problem,such as,the rough roads cause drivers could not control their car easily.Perhaps two car drives have some frictions in the narrow roads which has only the space that one car  goes through.Nevertheless,the main factor of traffic accident in the Prunty County is over speed drive.In short,without accounting for possible differences between Butler County and Prunty Country the ediorial cannot convince me that his recommendation for Prunty County is so sound.

Finally,the editorial commits a fallacy of hasty generalization.The author's inference that incentives which were effective in the past will also be effective in the future rest on poor assumption that during 5 years ago all conditions upon which their effectiveness depend have remained unchanged.The edioral claim that major Butler County road remain a 55 mph speed limit,moreover,the past year's reported accidents in Butler County has decreased 25 percent with comparing 5 years ago.Five years ago,the capabilities of cars are not as power as present,wherefore,the brake was often disorder.However,with developing in the safe technology of cars,the drives' safety has increased.In other hand,the reducing traffic accidents due to the drives begin to concern with safe drive.Thus,the longer the time between reports the less the conclusion that the accidents have decreased in the Butler County.

In sum up, the author fails to recommend that Prunty County should increase the lane widths and resurface rough roads to reduce the traffic accidents.To strengthen it the edioral must assure the action in Butler County is also apt to Prunty County.To support the argument,the limitation that restrict from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads is ineffective.

HOHO小飞UID: 2686624

太悲剧了，这篇阿狗里面有两个不熟悉的逻辑谬误....模板还是不熟啊......