Argument14 十天后就要到南京去考了，希望得到建议

jackiey99UID: 2771607

TOPIC: ARGUMENT14 - The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.

"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."

In this argument, the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center(GT) concludes that GT could increase its profit by way of greatly expanding the stock of varieties of vegetable seeds. To support his point of view, the owner cites a national survey showing that a growing number of consumers are dissatisfied with the quality of vegetables available in supermarkets. He also notes that a certain gardening magazine has sold out three months in a row at one local newsstand. At first glance, the argument seems quite reasonable, but close scrutiny reveals it contains several unconvincing assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive.

To begin with, the owner cites the national survey to substantiate his argument which depends on the assumption that local residents are also dissatisfied with the quality of vegetables sold in supermarkets the same as that indicated in the national survey. However, it is often not the case. The conclusion arrived at based on the national survey does not necessarily apply to local people, which is known to all. Without ruling out this possibility, the owner cannot rely on the national survey to conclude that local residents would buy vegetable seeds from GT.

Secondly, even assuming that the town's residents are also not content with vegetables sold in supermarkets, the owner fails to indicate that the residents would buy vegetable seeds and grow vegetables themselves. It is entirely possible that they will still go to supermarket to buy vegetables. Perhaps they make complaints about the vegetables' quality just to stimulate the supermarkets to improve the quality. They can also go to other place to buy vegetables instead, such as vegetable stands. Without accounting for all other possibilities, the owner cannot convince me that the residents will buy GT's vegetable seed and grow vegetables themselves.

Thirdly, the mere fact the gardening magazine has sold out three months in a row at one newsstand is little indication that the town's residents would be eager to but GT's vegetable seeds. Perhaps it is because other newsstands do not sell the magazine that the residents can only access the magazine at the only newsstand in this town. Or perhaps the magazine actually does not concern itself with vegetable gardening. Given these possible scenarios, the fact that one newsstand has sold every copy of the magazine in a continual period of three months proves nothing about local trends in vegetable gardening.

In sum, the owner’s argument is not well supported as it stands. To better bolster it the owner must provide more convincing evidence that consumers in this town are really dissatisfied with the vegetables that supermarket sells and that they will grow their own vegetables as a result. To better assess the argument, I would also need information about which kind of factors have contributed to the sold-out of the magazine at the newsstand.

非常感谢各位