第一次模考

ilstyUID: 2772788

TOPIC: ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 374
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010/3/2 16:43:13

In this argument, the arguer concludes that Paucia can encourage the farmers to cultivate the new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops, hoping this can increase the incomes of the farmers and improve the balance of trade. The arguer cites the success of Abundia aiming at justifying that this encouragement is an effective way. This argument, however, is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.

Firstly, the arguer fails to point out that it is the developed variety of seeds that contributes to the high yield of rice. There are other factors that may undermine this assumption, such as the new technology on the planting. For example, if a new fertilization has been adopted on the cultivation of rice which can make the rice grow healthier greatly, the newly developed variety of the seeds would not be the key factor on the high yield of rice. Then the conclusion will be another.

Secondly, even if the newly developed variety of the seed plays the decisive role in the high yield of the rice, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy. The success of Abundia can not be an exceptional example to the Paucia. There may be a world of differences between the Abundia and Paucia, such as the condition of soil and climate, which is also key factor in the cultivation of the rice. If the seed doesn't adapt the earth or the climate, the effort in the rice will be in vain and we can not get the high yield of the rice.

Finally, there is no evidence to validate that the high yield of rice will also improve the country's balance of trade by exporting and increase the income of the farmers. The arguer fails to tell us the situation of the country and the quality and popularity of the rice. If the country locates in a place which is hard for transporting, or the rice is not preferred by the country comparing with other traditional crops, it will be an unwarranted conclusion.

To sum up, this argument is not well reasoned. To justify the claim the conclusion that we should cultivate the variety of rice rather than traditional crops, the arguer needs to cite more evidence.