【Big Fish】3月12日Issue184-By gaobao

gaobaoayu123UID: 2740997

Issue184 It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data.
Words: 494
Time: 00:45:00

Whether it is a grave mistake to theorize without any data? I agree with the one aspect of the speaker's assertion that the theory concluded before sufficient data will affect the data collection afterward. However, the speaker overlooks the importance of the fact that one must have a premise to make a conclusion, and it is equally or even more dangerous those waiting for sufficient data before make a theory.

Admittedly, it is a cloud-built theory that without any data. Sometimes, people tend to believe what they want to believe. A famous example is Earth-centered theory, which concluded by just human's hope that we are the center of everything, dominated human's thought about 1400 years. It is just for our human being's fancy, and then, as a result replaced by sun-centered theory. This kind of theory is not worthy us to take notice of it because it is just like the castle in the air must collapse along with the increase of our knowledge.

On the other hand, the author overlooks the inevitability that one sound theory must base on more or less data. The earth-centered theory is just a human's desire overcome the sense. A reasonable theory must base on data. For example, the earth's sphere shape, which is based on to examination by Aristotle, was conducted from the earth is not a plat object. Although he has no accurate data，he hypothetic this theory which proved by others a long times after him. Without any data, there is no foundation to us to make out any theory. Data, no matter it is sufficient or not, is the very basic to a theory.

Moreover, the theory made before sufficient data collected will inevitably affect the data collecting afterward. Entanglement, for example, the greatest mystery in physics, means that the behavior that you measure a particle, no matter how far they away from, will change another particle's physical property at the same time. First put forward in Einstein's time, but approved by experiment longtime after. As it is unreasonable that this phenomenon exist, Einstein issued a paper want to prove it is wrong, however actually helped the later physicist to do the experiments. The theory made before a sufficient data will make scientists to collect the data around it to try proving it is right or wrong.

Further more, it is more dangerous that wait for enough data to theorize. As we know without so much proved-wrong theories made before, human can not get today's achievements. Without a theory, there is no possibility to progress; because there will be no aim and direction to collect data. Data will never sufficient, because any counter-example would defeat a longtime validate truth.

All in all, due to the above mentioned words, it is a grave mistake to theorize without any data, however, to make conclusion based on data but not enough is the way make our human being get close to the truth.

rokre2ttUID: 2714355

Issue184 It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data.
Words: 494
Time: 00:45:00

Whether it is a grave mistake to theorize without any data? I agree with the one aspect of the speaker's assertion that the theory concluded before sufficient data will affect the data collection afterward.（似乎这不是原文的观点）However, the speaker overlooks the importance of the fact that one must have a premise to make a conclusion, and it is equally or even more dangerous those waiting for sufficient data before make a theory.

Admittedly, it is a cloud-built theory that without any data. Sometimes, people tend to believe what they want to believe. A famous example is Earth-centered theory, which concluded by just human's hope that we are the center of everything, dominated human's thought about 1400 years. It is just for our human being's fancy, and then, as a result replaced by sun-centered theory. This kind of theory is not worthy us to take notice of it because it is just like the castle in the air must collapse along with the increase of our knowledge.(地心说Geocentric theory，日心说Heliocentric theory)

On the other hand, the author overlooks the inevitability that one sound theory must base on more or less data. The earth-centered theory is just a human's desire overcome the sense. A reasonable theory must base on data. For example, the earth's sphere shape, which is based on to examination by Aristotle, was conducted from the earth is not a plat object. Although he has no accurate data，he hypothetic this theory which proved by others a long times（time） after him. Without any data, there is no foundation to us to make out any theory. Data, no matter it is sufficient or not, is the very basic to a theory. （这里的sufficient和段首的more or less不一致，因为即使数据少，但只要能证明理论，那就是充分有效的。不充分的数据支撑得出的理论不能令人信服）

Moreover, the theory made before sufficient data collected will inevitably affect the data collecting afterward. Entanglement, for example, the greatest mystery in physics, means that the behavior that you measure a particle, no matter how far they away from, will change another particle's physical property at the same time. First put forward in Einstein's time, but approved by experiment longtime after. As it is unreasonable that this phenomenon exist, Einstein issued a paper want(去掉) to prove it is wrong, however actually helped the later physicist to do the experiments. The theory made before a sufficient data will make scientists to collect the data around it to try proving it is right or wrong.

Further more, it is more dangerous that wait for enough data to theorize. As we know without so much proved-wrong theories made before, human can not get today's achievements. Without a theory, there is no possibility to progress; because there will be no aim and direction to collect data. （此句感觉有点牵强）Data will never sufficient, because any counter-example would defeat a longtime validate truth.

All in all, due to the above mentioned words, it is a grave mistake to theorize without any data, however, to make conclusion based on data but not enough is the way make our human being get close to the truth.