ARGUMENT45..求大侠拍拍~~~马上要考了

hmwstanleyUID: 2617486

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this argument, the editor
concludes that the Arctic deer are decrease where they live, Canada' s arctic region, due to the ice insufficient during which they
across to hunt for foods. To substantiate the conclusion, the author provides the their habitat is limited to the place where the frozen ice is just right to commit enough food and easy moving. Additionally, local hunters report the decline of deer population. Meanwhile, the reports coincide the melt sea ice lead to recent global warming trends. The argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.

First threshold problem with the argument involves is that the report which the author relies on. The report might be statistical unreliable. The sample size, without knowing the real participants and may be hardly mirror the real situation. Moreover, we are not informed about how poll was conducted and if is really impartcial and specified due to the circumstance. Lacking such evidence, we may enlist that hunter inclined is only for thier profitable on this. It is entirely possible that if they point out the deficient of deer, more subsidy will offer. Accordingly, as the deficient of details about, we can not convinced by the survey.

Even, the report is reliable; another flaw that weakens this argument is that the author cites a recent global warming to illustrate more melt ice. He ignored some significant factors. Although warming is a worldwide trends, we are not inferred how it effect the frozen ice, it is become warmer that fast to melt the ice or not? All the message above retain unknown. Unless the specific warm conditions provide, this report is too vague to support the ice melting.

Besides, despiteof rising sea and melting ice as the editor accounted. He also tolerably irrational to exclusively ice melt to declined deer and fails to consider several relevant
factors contribute to the lessen deer. The author overlook the possibility that as for the highly profit more and more deer are hunted. It is also entirely probableinsufficient foodstuff reduce the populations of deer. Unless the editor can totally accounts for other elements relevant to the phenomenon and analysis these, or it is too dogmatic to presume that decrease is completely determined by global warming.

In summery, the argument is lack of cogent logical and unsubstantiated as it stands. To buttress the conclusion, the author would have to rule out more evidence concerning about the deer decline.

(2010-3-17 21:23:00)
407words.

番茄斗斗UID: 2720914

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer liveon islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by movingover ice from island to island during the course of a year. Theirhabitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on whichthey feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice tocover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel overit. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deerpopulations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recentglobal warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we canconclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result ofdeer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across thefrozen sea."

In this argument, the editor concludes that the Arctic deer are decrease where they live, Canada' sarctic region, due to the ice insufficient during which they across to hunt for foods. To substantiate the conclusion, the authorprovides the their habitat is limited to the place where the frozen iceis just right to commit enough food and easy moving（？？这句话没看明白）. Additionally,local hunters report the decline of deer population. Meanwhile, thereports coincide the melt sea ice lead to recent global warming trends.The argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified and unwarranted assumptions.（这一段对题目的复述有些累赘了，而且绿色部分与紫色部分的内容一致，只是紫色部分做了进一步的阐述，对于ARGU来说，是很不必要的）

First thresholdproblem with the argument involves is that the report which the authorrelies on. The report might be statistical unreliable. The sample size, without knowing the real participants andmay be hardly mirror the real situation. Moreover, we are not informedabout how poll was conducted and if is really impartcial and specifieddue to the circumstance（显然LZ理解错了题意，文章说的是当地猎人的报告，而不是调查，因此这里不能攻击调查的科学性，而应该从报告的不真实性出发，也就是你后面说的一种可能）. Lacking such evidence, we may enlist thathunter inclined is only for thier profitable on this. It is entirely possible that if they point out the deficient of deer, more subsidy will offer. Accordingly, as the deficient of details about, we can not convinced by the survey.

Even, the report is reliable; another flaw that weakens this argument is that the author cites a recent global warming to illustrate more melt ice. He ignored some significant factors. Although warming is a worldwide trends, we are not inferred how it effect the frozen ice, it is become warmer that fast to melt the ice or not? All the message above retain unknown.（以alternative explanation来辩驳的话，就应该明确的解释为什么这个更有说服力，仅仅给出一个可能是站不住脚的） Unless the specific warm conditions provide, this report is too vague to support the ice melting.

Besides, despiteofrising sea and melting ice as the editor accounted. He also tolerablyirrational to exclusively ice melt to declined deer and fails toconsider several relevant
factors contribute to the lessen deer. The author overlook thepossibility that as for the highly profit more and more deer arehunted. It is also entirely probable insufficientfoodstuff reduce the populations of deer. Unless the editor can totallyaccounts for other elements relevant to the phenomenon and analysisthese, or it is too dogmatic to presume that decrease is completelydetermined by global warming.

In summery, theargument is lack of cogent logical and unsubstantiated as it stands. Tobuttress the conclusion, the author would have to rule out moreevidence concerning about the deer decline.

LZ的语法有很大的问题，尤其是红色部分，影响了文章的理解
这篇文章论证的三大段过于模式化，即：找出攻击点->给出alternative explanation->“除非作者能给出更好的解释，不然就有逻辑问题”我想用中文这样表述出来的话，如果不是因为是自己写的文章，LZ大概也会觉得有点强词夺理了吧？这样的解释过于表面，对方也很容易就能argue back，正如我前面说的，除非你能解释清楚为什么你的解释是更好的，不然你的论证永远都是失败的。
还有点时间吧，加油～

hmwstanleyUID: 2617486

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