argument147 第一次写花了一下午求猛拍

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


In this argument, the editor concludes that since the game players prefer the lifelike graphics games, the adopting of advertising campaign aimed at such games will increase the sales of Whirlwind video games. To support this conclusion, the editor cites the survey evidence which represents the games players’ interest to games is more likely lifelike graphic games. And the editor also notes that the company Whirlwind has adopted the responding advertising campaign for introduce such games to increase the sales in the future. I find this argument is flawed in several critical aspects.

First, the editor assumes that the sales decline of Whirlwind video games is in a relation to game players preferring lifelike graphic games. The editor failed to account the possibility that the games produced by Whirlwind became worse in quality in past two years and competitor companies had better game quality with similar or lower price. For that matter, the customer certainly will not purchase Whirlwind’s video game. Without ruling out such factors, the editor cannot persuade me that the sales decline of Whirlwind video games was not caused by any other possibilities.

Secondly, the survey result indicating that game players prefer lifelike graphics is suspicious. The editor doesn’t provide the number of respondents. Perhaps, there are only few people who answered the question of survey. For that matter, from an insufficient small sample we can not draw any reliable conclusion that other game players also prefer lifelike graphic games. Lacking evidence of an adequate represent sample, the editor cannot justifiably rely on the survey to make any conclusion whatsoever.

Thirdly, even if the sales decline of Whirlwind video games has connection with game players preferring lifelike graphic games and the survey result is reliable, the editor provides no statistical evidence that the people at 10 ~ 25 is an age-group most likely to play video games. There could be many game players below 10. It that case, Whirlwind would lose a big market by ignoring a large amount of customers. Without consider all other possible customers, the efficiency of the advertising campaign of Whirlwind for introducing games to increase the sales will be doubtful.

Finally, the editor claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. He obviously overlooks other contingencies which could lead the decline of the sales in future, such as unpopular trend of video games, economic rescission, or market competition. Without accounting all such information, the editor cannot unfairly assert that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase.

In sum, the conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the editor should supply more clear evidence that game players do not buy Whirlwind video games because they prefer lifelike graphics, and Whirlwind has few such games. For better evaluate that argument, I would need to know the proportion of the games players who prefer lifelike games in a representative sample and the percentage different aged consumers of the video games.

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