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4.26

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The outlook for the world economy
Curb your enthusiasmA welcome recovery—but an uneven one, with dangers both for sluggish Europe and bubbly emerging economiesApr 22nd 2010 | From The Economist print edition



THERE is a whiff of exuberance around the world economy these days. Financial markets are buoyant, business confidence is rising and global growth seems increasingly robust. In its latest forecasts, released on April 21st, the IMF predicts that global output will grow by 4.2% this year on a purchasing-power basis, a full percentage point more than it foresaw six months ago. Other seers are even more optimistic, predicting growth of more than 4.5%—or close to the average pace of the boom years before the recession. The level of global output is now back to where it was before the downturn. And given the scale of the financial crisis, the recovery is surprisingly brisk. With global business investment accelerating and consumer spending strong, there is growing optimism that the recovery is becoming self-sustaining.

Some of this optimism is justified. Just as financial stress worsened the recession, so healthier financial markets are now reinforcing the recovery. Higher asset prices have propped up consumer spending and narrower corporate bond spreads have eased firms’ borrowing costs. Economic recovery, in turn, has helped ease financial pain. The IMF has reduced its estimate of banks’ total losses from the crisis by $500 billion, to $2.3 trillion, two-thirds of which has already been written off.

The trouble is that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth belies differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Historically, deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries. But this time around countries that were least affected by the recession (primarily the largest emerging economies) are seeing the fastest acceleration. China’s economy is now growing at double-digit rates. The IMF expects India’s GDP to increase by almost 9% this year. Some forecasters reckon that Brazil’s growth rate could reach 7%, which would be its fastest pace in a quarter of a century. In contrast, countries where the downturn was deepest have the weakest recoveries. Output fell further in Britain and the euro area than it did in America. Yet the IMF expects output growth of only 1% in the euro zone and 1.3% in Britain this year, compared with more than 3% in America.

One reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis was largely confined to the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. But the gap between American and European growth rates means that this cannot be the only explanation. The structure of finance matters (Europe is more dependent on banks), as does an economy’s flexibility (productivity has soared in America, but it has slumped in Europe). Another factor is differences in the scope for, and effectiveness of, policy stimulus. Thanks to their low debt levels, many big emerging economies used fiscal and monetary stimulus vigorously and effectively. In America the Federal Reserve opened the spigots, and the dollar’s reserve-currency status gives the country unusual fiscal latitude. In the euro zone, in contrast, individual countries lack an independent monetary policy. And with high debt levels, many are running out of fiscal room even as their economies remain weak.
The dangers of getting too excitedThe danger is that these growth gaps will widen rather than narrow. In Europe output could slow as sovereign debt fears spread beyond Greece, forcing the likes of Portugal (see article) to tighten fiscal policy faster. Big emerging economies, which have little or no spare capacity and which are growing at a faster pace than is sustainable, could easily overheat, risking inflation and asset bubbles. A multi-speed global recovery is, unfortunately, less stable than a synchronised one, not least because the policy combination that makes sense for the rich world—gradually tighter fiscal policy and a prolonged period of cheap money—will encourage more capital to flow to emerging economies in search of higher yields, and add to their risk of overheating. Nonetheless, both sets of policymakers can do more to prevent the more extreme outcomes.

Rich economies where public debt burdens are soaring urgently need bold and credible plans for medium-term deficit-reduction. They also need supply-side measures that boost economic growth, from tax reform (in America) to freer job markets (in Europe). To prevent bubbles forming as a result of lopsided global growth, emerging economies need to use deft monetary and fiscal tightening, flexible exchange rates and prudential tools such as reserve requirements and capital inflow controls. The urgency is especially great in Asia. China needs to allow the yuan to strengthen soon. India’s recent interest-rate hikes have failed to keep up with inflation. For now, booming growth in emerging economies explains the rosiness of the global recovery. But its sustainability will depend, in large part, on how that prosperity is controlled.


原文链接：http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15951686&source=hptextfeature

lvruochenUID: 2792806

The outlook for the world economy
Curb your enthusiasmA welcome recovery—but an uneven one, with dangers both for sluggish Europe and bubbly emerging economiesApr 22nd 2010 | From The Economist print edition



THERE is a whiff of exuberance around the world economy these days. Financial markets are buoyant, business confidence is rising and global growth seems increasingly robust. In its latest forecasts, released on April 21st, the IMF predicts that global output will grow by 4.2% this year on a purchasing-power basis, a full percentage point more than it foresaw six months ago. Other seers are even more optimistic, predicting growth of more than 4.5%—or close to the average pace of the boom years before the recession. The level of global output is now back to where it was before the downturn. And given the scale of the financial crisis, the recovery is surprisingly brisk. With global business investment accelerating and consumer spending strong, there is growing optimism that the recovery is becoming self-sustaining.

Some of this optimism is justified. Just as financial stress worsened the recession, so healthier financial markets are now reinforcing the recovery. Higher asset prices have propped up consumer spending and narrower corporate bond spreads have eased firms’ borrowing costs. Economic recovery, in turn, has helped ease financial pain. The IMF has reduced its estimate of banks’ total losses from the crisis by $500 billion, to $2.3 trillion, two-thirds of which has already been written off.

The trouble is that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth belies differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Historically, deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries. But this time around countries that were least affected by the recession (primarily the largest emerging economies) are seeing the fastest acceleration. China’s economy is now growing at double-digit rates. The IMF expects India’s GDP to increase by almost 9% this year. Some forecasters reckon that Brazil’s growth rate could reach 7%, which would be its fastest pace in a quarter of a century. In contrast, countries where the downturn was deepest have the weakest recoveries. Output fell further in Britain and the euro area than it did in America. Yet the IMF expects output growth of only 1% in the euro zone and 1.3% in Britain this year, compared with more than 3% in America.

One reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis was largely confined to the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. But the gap between American and European growth rates means that this cannot be the only explanation. The structure of finance matters (Europe is more dependent on banks), as does an economy’s flexibility (productivity has soared in America, but it has slumped in Europe). Another factor is differences in the scope for, and effectiveness of, policy stimulus. Thanks to their low debt levels, many big emerging economies used fiscal and monetary stimulus vigorously and effectively. In America the Federal Reserve opened the spigots, and the dollar’s reserve-currency status gives the country unusual fiscal latitude. In the euro zone, in contrast, individual countries lack an independent monetary policy. And with high debt levels, many are running out of fiscal room even as their economies remain weak.
The dangers of getting too excitedThe danger is that these growth gaps will widen rather than narrow. In Europe output could slow as sovereign debt fears spread beyond Greece, forcing the likes of Portugal (see article) to tighten fiscal policy faster. Big emerging economies, which have little or no spare capacity and which are growing at a faster pace than is sustainable, could easily overheat, risking inflation and asset bubbles. A multi-speed global recovery is, unfortunately, less stable than a synchronised one, not least because the policy combination that makes sense for the rich world—gradually tighter fiscal policy and a prolonged period of cheap money—will encourage more capital to flow to emerging economies in search of higher yields, and add to their risk of overheating. Nonetheless, both sets of policymakers can do more to prevent the more extreme outcomes.

Rich economies where public debt burdens are soaring urgently need bold and credible plans for medium-term deficit-reduction. They also need supply-side measures that boost economic growth, from tax reform (in America) to freer job markets (in Europe). To prevent bubbles forming as a result of lopsided global growth, emerging economies need to use deft monetary and fiscal tightening, flexible exchange rates and prudential tools such as reserve requirements and capital inflow controls. The urgency is especially great in Asia. China needs to allow the yuan to strengthen soon（人民币升值，直接出的结果，不大符合规则，应该说这样减少实际资金流入量）. India’s recent interest-rate hikes have failed to keep up with inflation. For now, booming growth in emerging economies explains the rosiness of the global recovery. But its sustainability will depend, in large part, on how that prosperity is controlled.

annkeUID: 2605122

THERE is a [whiff of exuberance]有点茂盛 around the world economy these days. Financial markets are [buoyant上涨], business confidence is rising and global growth seems increasingly [robust生机勃勃]. In its latest forecasts, released on April 21st, the IMF predicts that global output will grow by 4.2% this year on a purchasing-power basis, a full percentage point more than it foresaw six months ago. Other seers are even more optimistic, predicting growth of more than 4.5%—or close to the average pace of the boom years before the recession. The level of global output is now back to where it was before the [downturn=recession]. And [given the scale of the financial crisis, the recovery is surprisingly brisk]. With global business investment accelerating and consumer spending strong, there is growing optimism that the recovery is becoming self-sustaining.
[To argue something about economy development, some typical examples and expressions are useful, such as The Depression, with efforts of America President Roosevelt; financial crisis can be overcome through consumer spending, investment and export.]
Some of this optimism is justified. Just as financial stress worsened the recession, so healthier financial markets are now reinforcing加强了 the recovery. Higher asset prices have [propped up] consumer spending and narrower corporate bond spreads have eased firms’ borrowing costs. Economic recovery, in turn, has helped ease financial pain. The IMF has reduced its estimate of banks’ total losses from the crisis by $500 billion, to $2.3 trillion, two-thirds of which has already been [written off注销].

The trouble is that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth [belies掩饰] differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Historically, deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries. But this time around countries that were least affected by the recession (primarily the largest emerging economies) are seeing the fastest acceleration. China’s economy is now growing at double-digit[翻了一倍] rates. The IMF expects India’s GDP to increase by almost 9% this year. Some forecasters [reckon估计] that Brazil’s growth rate could reach 7%, which would be its fastest pace in a quarter of a century. In contrast, countries where the downturn was deepest have the weakest recoveries. Output [fell further继续下跌] in Britain and the euro area than it did in America. Yet the IMF expects output growth of only 1% in the euro zone and 1.3% in Britain this year, compared with more than 3% in America.

One reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis [was largely confined to主要限于] the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. But [the gap=difference] between American and European growth rates means that this cannot be the only explanation. The structure of finance [matters起作用] (Europe is more dependent on banks), as does an economy’s flexibility (productivity has soared in America, but it has slumped in Europe). Another factor is differences [in the scope for=in the scale for/coverage], and effectiveness of, policy stimulus. Thanks to their low debt levels, many big emerging economies used fiscal and monetary stimulus vigorously and effectively. In America the Federal Reserve[联邦储备局] [opened the spigots=release], and the dollar’s reserve-currency status gives the country unusual [fiscal latitude]. In the euro zone, in contrast, individual countries lack an independent monetary policy. And with high debt levels, many are running out of fiscal room even as their economies remain weak.
The dangers of getting too excited.The danger is that these growth gaps will widen rather than narrow. In Europe output could slow as sovereign debt fears spread beyond Greece, forcing the likes of Portugal (see article) to tighten fiscal policy faster. Big emerging economies, which have little or no spare capacity and which are growing at a faster pace than is sustainable, could easily overheat, risking inflation and asset bubbles. A multi-speed global recovery is, unfortunately, less stable than a synchronised=simultaneous one, not least because the policy combination that makes sense for the rich world—gradually tighter fiscal policy and a prolonged period of cheap money—will encourage more capital to flow to emerging economies in search of higher yields, and add to their risk of overheating. Nonetheless, both sets of policymakers can do more to prevent the more extreme outcomes.

Rich economies where public debt burdens are [soaring urgently] need bold and credible plans for medium-term deficit-reduction. They also need supply-side measures that [boost推动] economic growth, from tax reform (in America) to freer job markets (in Europe). To prevent bubbles forming as a result of [lopsided不平衡的] global growth, emerging economies need to use [deft灵巧的] monetary and fiscal tightening, flexible exchange rates and [prudential谨慎的] tools such as reserve requirements and capital inflow controls. The urgency is especially great in Asia. China needs to allow the yuan to strengthen soon. India’s recent interest-rate hikes have failed to keep up with inflation. For now, booming growth in emerging economies explains the rosiness[愉快] of the global recovery. But its sustainability will depend, in large part, on how that prosperity is controlled.
[This passage is quite professional and specialized for me, I hardly understand the occurrence process of regional different recovery. Roughly conclude, the recovery difference have several explanation.Firstly,economy recession mainly confined within advanced countries,like USA, Britain, that’s why developing countries,like China, Brazil, India enjoy a boom recovery. Secondly, economy policy and system matters, that’s why USA develop faster than Europe. Thirdly, such lopsided development has hazard. ]

lvruochenUID: 2792806

大家都很忙。。。。。。。。。。。
The passage aims to present the phenomenon of the unbalanced recovery of world economy in different countries. The author believes that the notable gap of uneven recovery between rich economies and emerging economies is hazard and tends to become larger. However, the author is so pessimistic that what he finds is merely bad consequences of such circumstance. There is no doubt that the outstanding growth of emerging economics can promote the recovery of other countries. More tellingly, when economy is good in some certain country, more chances for multinationals will definitely come out. Those company will recover much quicker. Then multinationals will conduct such benefits to other country and even to the world. That's what economic globalization will bing us, too. Not only dangers but opportunities are shared by the whole world.

annkeUID: 2605122

这也兴占楼？？ 2# lvruochen

xiaohaixxxUID: 2317561

Curb your enthusiasmA welcome recovery—but an uneven one, with dangers both for sluggish Europe and bubbly emerging economiesApr 22nd 2010 | From The Economist print edition
THERE is a whiff of exuberance around the world economy these days. Financial markets are buoyant, business confidence is rising and global growth seems increasingly robust. In its latest forecasts, released on April 21st, the IMF predicts that global output will grow by 4.2% this year on a purchasing-power basis, a full percentage point more than it foresaw six months ago. Other seers are even more optimistic, predicting growth of more than 4.5%—or close to the average pace of the boom years before the recession. The level of global output is now back to where it was before the downturn. And given the scale of the financial crisis, the recovery is surprisingly brisk. With global business investment accelerating and consumer spending strong, there is growing optimism that the recovery is becoming self-sustaining.

Some of this optimism is justified. Just as financial stress worsened the recession, so healthier financial markets are now reinforcing the recovery. Higher asset prices have propped up consumer spending and narrower corporate bond spreads have eased firms’ borrowing costs. Economic recovery, in turn, has helped ease financial pain. The IMF has reduced its estimate of banks’ total losses from the crisis by $500 billion, to $2.3 trillion, two-thirds of which has already been written off.

The trouble is that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth belies differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Historically, deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries. But this time around countries that were least affected by the recession (primarily the largest emerging economies) are seeing the fastest acceleration. China’s economy is now growing at double-digit rates. The IMF expects India’s GDP to increase by almost 9% this year. Some forecasters reckon that Brazil’s growth rate could reach 7%, which would be its fastest pace in a quarter of a century. In contrast, countries where the downturn was deepest have the weakest recoveries. Output fell further in Britain and the euro area than it did in America. Yet the IMF expects output growth of only 1% in the euro zone and 1.3% in Britain this year, compared with more than 3% in America.

One reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis was largely confined to the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. But the gap between American and European growth rates means that this cannot be the only explanation. The structure of finance matters (Europe is more dependent on banks), as does an economy’s flexibility (productivity has soared in America, but it has slumped in Europe). Another factor is differences in the scope for, and effectiveness of, policy stimulus. Thanks to their low debt levels, many big emerging economies used fiscal and monetary stimulus vigorously and effectively. In America the Federal Reserve opened the spigots, and the dollar’s reserve-currency status gives the country unusual fiscal latitude. In the euro zone, in contrast, individual countries lack an independent monetary policy. And with high debt levels, many are running out of fiscal room even as their economies remain weak.
The dangers of getting too excited The danger is that these growth gaps will widen rather than narrow. In Europe output could slow as sovereign debt fears spread beyond Greece, forcing the likes of Portugal (see article) to tighten fiscal policy faster. Big emerging economies, which have little or no spare capacity and which are growing at a faster pace than is sustainable, could easily overheat, risking inflation and asset bubbles. A multi-speed global recovery is, unfortunately, less stable than a synchronised one, not least because the policy combination that makes sense for the rich world—gradually tighter fiscal policy and a prolonged period of cheap money—will encourage more capital to flow to emerging economies in search of higher yields, and add to their risk of overheating. Nonetheless, both sets of policymakers can do more to prevent the more extreme outcomes.

Rich economies where public debt burdens are soaring urgently need bold and credible plans for medium-term deficit-reduction. They also need supply-side measures that boost economic growth, from tax reform (in America) to freer job markets (in Europe). To prevent bubbles forming as a result of lopsided global growth, emerging economies need to use deft monetary and fiscal tightening, flexible exchange rates and prudential tools such as reserve requirements and capital inflow controls. The urgency is especially great in Asia. China needs to allow the yuan to strengthen soon. India’s recent interest-rate hikes have failed to keep up with inflation. For now, booming growth in emerging economies explains the rosiness of the global recovery. But its sustainability will depend, in large part, on how that prosperity is controlled.

In this article the author firstly introduce that the world’s economy is immerging in a optimist environment. Then the author the reason that why the economy is recovering. However the author also indicate the trouble that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth belies differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Then the author explain that one reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis was largely confined to the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. And another factor is differences in the scope for, and effectiveness of, policy stimulus.

fufan6711UID: 2788330

The outlook for the world economy

Curb your enthusiasm

A welcome recovery—but an uneven one, with dangers both for sluggish（行动缓慢的） Europe and bubbly（生机勃勃的） emerging economies

Apr 22nd 2010 | From The Economist print edition

THERE is a whiff（少量的气息） of exuberance（繁荣） around the world economy these days. Financial markets are buoyant（趋于上涨）, business confidence is rising and global growth seems increasingly robust（强劲）. In its latest forecasts, released on April 21st, the IMF predicts that global output will grow by 4.2% this year on a purchasing-power（购买力） basis, a full percentage point （整整一个百分点）more than it foresaw six months ago. Other seers（预言家） are even more optimistic, predicting growth of more than 4.5%—or close to the average pace of the boom years before the recession. The level of global output is now back to where it was before the downturn. And given the scale of the financial crisis, the recovery is surprisingly brisk. With global business investment accelerating and consumer spending strong, there is growing optimism that the recovery is becoming self-sustaining.

Some of this optimism is justified. Just as financial stress worsened the recession, so healthier financial markets are now reinforcing the recovery. Higher asset prices have propped up（维持） consumer spending and narrower corporate bond spreads（收益差） have eased firms’ borrowing costs（接待费用）. Economic recovery, in turn, has helped ease financial pain. The IMF has reduced its estimate of banks’ total losses from the crisis by $500 billion, to $2.3 trillion, two-thirds of which has already been written off（注销）.

The trouble is that the good fortune has not been shared equally. The healthy pace of global growth belies（掩盖） differences between regions that are big and are getting bigger. Historically, deeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries. But this time around countries that were least affected by the recession (primarily the largest emerging economies) are seeing the fastest acceleration. China’s economy is now growing at double-digit rates. The IMF expects India’s GDP to increase by almost 9% this year. Some forecasters reckon that Brazil’s growth rate could reach 7%, which would be its fastest pace in a quarter of a century. In contrast, countries where the downturn（经济衰退） was deepest have the weakest recoveries. Output fell further in Britain and the euro area than it did in America. Yet the IMF expects output growth of only 1% in the euro zone and 1.3% in Britain this year, compared with more than 3% in America.

One reason for this multi-speed recovery is that the financial crisis was largely confined to the rich world, and recoveries after such crises tend to be slow. But the gap between American and European growth rates means that this cannot be the only explanation. The structure of finance matters (Europe is more dependent on banks), as does an economy’s flexibility (productivity has soared in America, but it has slumped in Europe). Another factor is differences in the scope for, and effectiveness of, policy stimulus. Thanks to their low debt levels, many big emerging economies used fiscal and monetary stimulus vigorously and effectively. In America the Federal Reserve opened the spigots（龙头）, and the dollar’s reserve-currency（储备货币） status gives the country unusual fiscal latitude（自由）. In the euro zone, in contrast, individual countries lack an independent monetary policy. And with high debt levels, many are running out of fiscal room even as their economies remain weak.

The dangers of getting too excited

The danger is that these growth gaps will widen rather than narrow. In Europe output could slow as sovereign debt（主权债务） fears spread beyond Greece, forcing the likes of Portugal (see article) to tighten fiscal policy faster. Big emerging economies, which have little or no spare capacity and which are growing at a faster pace than is sustainable, could easily overheat, risking inflation and asset bubbles. A multi-speed global recovery is, unfortunately, less stable than a synchronised one, not least （不仅是）because the policy combination that makes sense for the rich world—gradually tighter fiscal policy and a prolonged period of cheap money—will encourage more capital to flow to emerging economies in search of higher yields（收益）, and add to their risk of overheating. Nonetheless（但是）, both sets of policymakers can do more to prevent the more extreme outcomes.

Rich economies where public debt burdens are soaring urgently need bold and credible plans for medium-term deficit-reduction. They also need supply-side（通过减税来刺激生产和投资的） measures that boost economic growth, from tax reform (in America) to freer job markets（自有就业市场） (in Europe). To prevent bubbles forming as a result of lopsided（不平衡的） global growth, emerging economies need to use deft（灵巧的） monetary and fiscal tightening(紧缩), flexible exchange rates（汇率） and prudential tools such as reserve requirements（存款准备金） and capital inflow controls. The urgency is especially great in Asia. China needs to allow the yuan to strengthen soon. India’s recent interest-rate（利率） hikes（上涨）
have failed to keep up with inflation. For now, booming growth in emerging economies explains the rosiness（希望） of the global recovery. But its sustainability will depend, in large part（在很大程度上）, on how that prosperity is controlled.

lvruochenUID: 2792806

5# annke

我本来想立刻写的
但是给忘了
只好写在你后面了